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Dick Morris: GOP DOOMED, voters defecting, gerrymandering backfiring

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Grebrook Donating Member (479 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:03 AM
Original message
Dick Morris: GOP DOOMED, voters defecting, gerrymandering backfiring
http://thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/Comment/DickMorris/101806.html

<article>

The Republican base, that vaunted entity whose every mood swing has controlled the zigs and zags of the Bush administration policy, has moved out, according to the latest Gallup polling. Karl Rove’s heroic efforts to preserve its fealty have failed to move Republican base voters. Karl cannot compensate for Bush’s failure to project his issues as the midterm disaster for the Republican Party nears.

The Gallup poll of Oct. 6-8 shows that, in the wake of the Foley scandal, the number of “white frequent churchgoers” who are planning to vote Republican has dropped from 58 percent to 47 percent since last month. The margin of their support for Republicans over Democrats, 26 percentage points in September, has entirely disappeared and the parties are tied among this core element of the Republican base.

The Gallup poll also reveals that Democrats now win all eight major issues, including terrorism and morality. Asked which party would do more to enhance “moral standards in the country,” Democrats now win 47 to 36! And on terrorism, Democrats now have a 47-to-42-percent advantage.

The Foley scandal has wrought extraordinary damage to the Republican Party and appears to have had a particularly negative impact on the base. No amount of blame shifting onto Democrats for breaking the story or for holding it until September is likely to compensate for the evidence that House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) did not act promptly to expose it himself. According to the latest Fox News poll, 61 percent of voters believe that Hastert knew about the Foley affair early on and did nothing to stop it.

Churchgoing whites are the core of the Republican base. The fact that they are now breaking even in the approaching midterm elections foretells total disaster for the GOP. For this group to leave is, quite literally, the political equivalent of the last dog dying! It is now likely that they will lose both houses of Congress.

With this kind of defection, Republican Sens. Mike DeWine (Ohio), Conrad Burns (Mont.), Rick Santorum (Pa.), Jim Talent (Mo.) and Lincoln Chaffee (R.I.) seem likely to be gone. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s (R-Tenn.) seat seems likely to go to Rep. Harold Ford (D-Tenn.). And Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) may also be on his way out. In New Jersey, after trailing Tom Kean Jr. for most of September, Sen. Robert Menendez (D) seems to have moved out to a small lead that will probably grow.

And all of this trend is before the final weeks when downscale Democrats, who have not yet focused on the elections, “come home” and vote their historic party loyalties.

The defection of the Republican base is likely to be felt even more keenly in the House races. The very gerrymandering that GOP leaders had hoped would leave their House margin invulnerable may now backfire as the Republican white churchgoers, whom the district lines had incorporated into swing Republican districts, now defect and vote Democrat or stay home in massive numbers. The gerrymandering designed to keep Democrats out may have the perverse effect of keeping disaffected Republicans in the swing districts, magnifying their effect on the election.

Can the Republican Party reunite with its base? It’s hard to see how they can win it back until the 2008 election. A Hillary Clinton candidacy would obviously help them to regain the fierce loyalty of their base, but she would also bring in millions of single women voters who would support her candidacy by huge margins. The recent census data showing that half of all households are unmarried indicates how extensive a political force single women can become.

In the long term, of course, Democratic policies on same-sex marriage and abortion are likely to bring the base back to its traditional bearings, but these issues seem to be having little impact on holding the Republican majorities in Congress.

<article>
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AlCzervik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
1. sorry, he lost me at "Karl Rove’s heroic efforts"
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wicket Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:07 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. He's so typical of a toe-sucker
:D
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cybildisobedience Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
2. I'd love to be optimistic that the GOP is doomed,
but Dick Morris is almost always WRONG.
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Kahuna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:17 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. Right. He hasn't been right about anything since he worked for
Clinton. Drinking too much Kool Aid has a tendency to ruin one's good judgment.
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C_U_L8R Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
3. Love to see gerrymandering backfire
these manipulative republican creeps deserve a heapload of comeuppance...

hope there's more coming
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hippiechick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:10 AM
Response to Original message
5. The GOP'ers are protesting too long and too hard ...
WTF are they up to? :shrug:
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RoBear Donating Member (781 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 10:24 AM
Response to Reply #5
17. Simple:
lull dems into thinking it's all over.

IT'S NOT!!! GET EVERYBODY OUT TO VOTE or the slime balls will "win" again...
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peacetalksforall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:11 AM
Response to Original message
6. He's all air. Probably brought out to let the air out..
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UTUSN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:16 AM
Response to Original message
7. Roger STONE, master of disinformation: Repukes"driving yacht into tsunami"
But in LBN ROVE is predicting Repuke holding both houses. STONE is a pre-ROVE ROVE, learned dirty tricks under the NIXON flying monkeys, and even after his own downfall under Bob DOLE, whose campaign he steered towards "family values" while he and wife Nydia were exposed as advertising for swinging couples, he was still at it, being a leader of the Shrub thugs who stormed the elections office in Florida in 2000, and he is suspected of being behind the set-up of Dan RATHER.

Transcript from the bowtie-boy circus.

So: Is STONE 1) telling it like it is, 2) scaring the Repukes into turning-out, or 3) setting us up as we have been set up so many times before?

*******QUOTE*******

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15303016 /

Roger, welcome.

If anyone would know, it‘s you. Do you think Karl Rove knows something that we don‘t know?

ROGER STONE, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, you know, I know Karl Rove very well. I‘ve know him since college. He is a very clever fellow, he‘s a very smart fellow, but I think this is whistling past the graveyard.

I‘m calling in today from Cleveland, and out here on business. And I must tell you, I‘m at ground zero of the Republican meltdown. I mean, between Congressman Bob Ney pleading guilty, Bob Taft‘s crony who managed state funds on trial here in Columbus, and Bob Taft presiding over the loss of 250,000 jobs in three years, the Republican party was already in a meltdown before Mark Foley came along, and the poor guy who suffers here I think is Mike DeWine.

CARLSON: That‘s—that‘s the way it seems. A front page “New York Times” piece today saying the Republican Party is all but written off.

DeWine‘s seat, unusual to see an incumbent written off like that. But it appears he‘s going to lose.

But back to Karl Rove for a sec, Rove is saying this—I‘ve heard him personally say it, that he believes Republicans are going to hold on to the House and the Senate. He‘s going to be proved right or wrong in three weeks. Why would he, one of the smartest people in politics, be telling people something that if it‘s wrong would be obvious to everyone that‘s wrong really soon?

STONE: Because it‘s message discipline. Karl‘s a very disciplined master of this particular game.

You certainly don‘t say to your own troop—you don‘t say to everybody who is working overtime to try to get Republicans, even moderate Republicans disenchanted with the war, or Evangelical Christians disgusted by the Mark Foley matter to come back and vote. Right now Republican vote is suppressed around the country. You don‘t dispirit your people by announcing, you know, I think we‘re in trouble in two weeks and we could lose both houses of the Congress.

Karl is far too disciplined for that. He‘s doing his job by remaining upbeat. But, I mean, any objective observer would have to look at these numbers across the country, Clay Shaw in Florida, you know, and numerous races that were thought to be leaning Republican now contentious.

CARLSON: Yes. I completely agree. I think you‘re absolutely right.

Interesting, though, that the Republicans, by the end of all this, it looks like they‘ll have about a $55 million advantage over the Democrats. Doesn‘t this kind of put to rest once and for all the lie, the myth that everyone repeats every season, that money is everything? You can have more money and still lose.

STONE: Well, what you‘re talking about is driving a yacht into a tsunami. It may be a very expensive yacht, but there‘s a tsunami coming. And I think that—that money at this point doesn‘t matter.

The Democrats are competitive on money. As long as Democrats have enough money to communicate in this atmosphere, they don‘t need to outspend the Republicans to win. They just have to spend their money wisely. And you‘re seeing more and more Democrats become competitive in races around the country where that shouldn‘t be the case.

CARLSON: Is there any scenario that you have heard of or have thought about for Republicans holding the House of Representatives?

STONE: Well, first of all, I think we should recognize that in politics two and a half weeks is a lifetime. And an international crisis, god forbid, terrorist attack on the country, or some new scandal, you know, maybe Harry Reid‘s land problems are more extensive than we think. I mean, you don‘t know what‘s going to happen in two and a half weeks, but if—as Nixon said the night of the 1960 election, “If the trend continues, I will lose.”

I think we are about to lose.

CARLSON: And what happened to Richard Nixon in 1960?

STONE: Well, he was very narrowly defeated.

CARLSON: He lost.

STONE: Or the election was stolen from him.

CARLSON: Right.

STONE: One—one or another. I don‘t expect this to be a photo finish, though. I just think that—you know, that there is—you know, there‘s a tsunami coming, as I say.

CARLSON: Roger Stone, one of the smartest people in politics.

********UNQUOTE*******
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:17 AM
Response to Original message
8. I should be happy about this prediction
But Footsie Morris' predictions are wrong so often that I must take pause.
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Skidmore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
10. Morris has been playing with his magic 8 ball again, eh?
Why anyone bothers to pay attention to him is beyond me.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:19 AM
Response to Original message
11. What I don't respect in the Republican base is that it's comprised of
a lot of anti-environmentalists, hatemongering Hannity types, fire-belching fundie nitwits, anti-Science xenophobes, and corporate hacks hunting for the next sweet deal.

Churchill said the strongest argument against democracy was a 5-minute conversation with the average voter.

With the Republican base, make that 30 seconds.
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Yupster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 10:16 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. Good Churchill line
I've never heard it before.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #15
20. Hey Upster. Thanks for your post. Gotta say, there's two things that
keep Texas on the positive side of the ledger for me. One is Larry McMurtry, whose command of the state's history and sociology let me respect the place on human terms. The other is posts from progressives like you on DU. It makes a big difference.

Keep on keepin' on down there in the Lone Star State.
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
12. beware of all these GOP pundits and enablers predicting doom
the only polls which matter are the ones voters go to on November 7.
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 09:31 AM
Response to Original message
13. Sounds like Morris is trying to 'Fire Up' the Repub base
Edited on Wed Oct-18-06 09:55 AM by Tellurian
announcing they will be LOSERS in the election..
nudging them to hold their noses and vote the party line
to maintain power.

I'm sure Rove is telling them, "We'll Clean Our Own Houses AFTER the Election."
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wisteria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
14. It's not over till it over. We need to continue to work hard against
these Republicans. Do not give them an opening even if it looks like we have the lead. Dick Morris knows sh*t.
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Guy Whitey Corngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
16. Now I'm worried. Because this asshole is wrong 99.8% of the time. n/t
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. That's What I Was Thinking
Morris is always wrong. But hey, even a broken clock yadda yadda, so maybe this is his 1%.
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-18-06 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #16
19. Yeah, me too. Didn't he predict big Dem losses in 1998?
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