VOTER TURNOUT PREDICTION

[radfringe]

Many pundits are comparing this year's election to that of 1994 (i.e. the republican revolution)

in 1994 only 37.8% of eligible voters actually voted.


here's a link and some info for more:
Dubious Democracy and the 1994 Elections
Electing the U.S. House of Representatives
The Center for Voting and Democracy
http://www.fairvote.org/reports/1995/chp3/dd1994.html

The Center for Voting and Democracy in 1995 released Dubious Democracy, a statistical analysis of the 1994 elections for the United States House of Representatives. Much had been written about the historic nature of the elections in which the Republican party gained a majority in the House for the first time since 1954. But the Center's study went beyond the national partisan results to provide statistics that help explain the increasing frustration of many American voters -- a frustration that has not diminished with the change in control of the House.

Behind 1994's vote for change in the House of Representatives were three disturbing facts:

-- Most eligible voters did not participate.
-- Most voters have limited choices.
-- Most races are not remotely competitive.

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Poll Question: How do you think voter turnout will compare with 1994 mid-term election? (1994 turnout was 37.8% of eligible voters)

and of course feel free to add your comments

[Sammy Pepys]

1. Probably around 40%ish..

...is my guess.

[Deep13]

2. You may say that I'm a dreamer...

...but I'm not the only one.:evilgrin:

Actually, I picked very high.

[trotsky]

3. I said somewhat lower...

only because I think the right-wing evangelicals are going to stay home rather than vote for gay sexual predator enablers. Just a hunch. ;-)

[Gwerlain]

4. I'd love to see much higher turnouts...

but I expect somewhat higher. I hope that people "get it" this time- good turnout helps us.

[Akoto]

5. Middling to above average, I'd guess.

People are more likely to be content when they can afford both their necessities and their creature comforts.

I don't know about you guys, but my family's having difficulties affording just the former.

[Justice Is Comin]

6. Democrats like locusts.

republicans not so much.

[Earth_First]

7. For a mid-term election, I believe that turnout will be significant

especially in regards to historical terms for mid-term elections.

First, "...Many pundits are comparing this year's election to that of 1994..."

I find this very typical of the latest trend in media reporting. One week, it is reported that 60% of voters are described as "very energized" to the next, which 'pundits' compare 2006 to that of a lower turnout typical of 1994, "in which the Republicans made historical political gains."

My gut tells me that this is a last ditch attempt to energize voters within the GOP. Whom according to recent polling that I would consider reliable point to the GOP, especially social conservatives, staying home in 2006 after their discontent with the party in general. I believe that this is an attempt at saying, "See, if you show up, we could stem the Democratic tidal wave that is bound to hit, and we could see exactly the same results, if you just show up."

They're nervous. They know that a sizable portion of a demographic that they have relied upon so heavily in the past will be either staying home, or voting for Democratic candidates.

That's why 2006 depends completely upon one Democratic campaign strategy: GOTV


Apologies if this seems a bit incoherent. Written post-haste in between a couple of project I'm working on...

G'day, DU!

[rhiannon55]

8. Higher than usual turnout...

After six disastrous BushCo years, voters are pissed, and motivated. Much more than they were in 1994.

[demwing]

9. Ok, Im the sole 100% dreamer. :)

But SOMEONE has to keep the dream alive!