Murder rates around the country and Katrina evacuees.

[The Backlash Cometh]

Someone mentioned that the high murder rate in Central Florida was due to the Katrina evacuees, but since I figured it was a comment laced with prejudice, I dismissed it. However, on RawStory, a similar complaint was published. Is anyone finding evidence of a correlation?:

Houston Homicides Spike; Evacuees Cited

HOUSTON (AP) - Evacuees from Hurricane Katrina have contributed to an increase in Houston's annual murder rate, which could climb this year to its highest level in more than a decade, police said.

Houston had 316 homicides as of Oct. 16. That's an increase of 25 percent from the 252 slayings tallied at this time last year, putting the city on pace to record nearly 400 killings before the end of 2006.

"We recognize that the homicide rate is up as far as raw numbers and as well as percentages relative to the population," Capt. Dwayne Ready said. "We also recognize that Katrina evacuees continue to have an impact on the murder rate."

When Katrina swamped New Orleans last year, 250,000 people fled to Houston. As many as 150,000 evacuees remain in the city.

Houston's homicide rate has been much higher in the past, especially 1981, when the city was dubbed the nation's murder capital with 701 slayings. Even if the city reaches 400 homicides, Ready said, "it's not a bleak picture."

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20061021/D8KT70S81.html

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. Well there has to be evidence that the increased murders are being

committed by Katrina evacuees. If there is any such evidence, the article does not provide that.

[The Backlash Cometh]

2. Isn't that weird how they leave out that piece of critical evidence?

[Igel]

12. It provides a sufficient bit of info.

316 homicides.

"At least 65 slayings in 2006 have been classified as Katrina-related, meaning either the victim, suspect or both evacuated to Houston after Katrina." ~21%, not the 25% cited.

The numbers for the last quarter last year had a more damning percentage related to Katrine-evacs, and an uptick in the homicide rate that started a week after Katrina, with the number of Katrina-related homicides about equal to the increase in homicides.

One could predict that as evacuees returned to NOLA or otherwise left, the homicide rate would decrease. It did, gradually falling over the last quarter and then tapering off: the evacuees that could or would leave did; those that couldn't or wouldn't stayed.

Effect. Correlation. And a plausible--even likely--causal relationship shown. QED. It's the default hypothesis, sufficiently proven to be taken as given.

The number of homicides committed by Katrina evacuees isn't the crucial point. It's possible for a newcomer to engage in activities that upset the balance and get killed when a long-term Houstonian wouldn't have triggered a murder; these victims aren't fully innocent, but certainly don't merit death. But it's also possible that just being an outsider can provoke animus (this is flawed logic, IMHO, deep into 'blaming the victim' territory, although widely adduced when discussing the US presence in Iraq); the number cited may include some such victims.

[The Backlash Cometh]

13. Duly noted.

[hedgehog]

3. Given that a lot of murders are associated with the drug trade and/or

gangs, it makes sense that the murder rate would rise where there is a large concentration of evacuees due to territorial disputes. We're seeing a similar phenomenon in Upstate New York where the murder rate rises until the drug sales territories are established.

I've seen at least two sad cases where someone who was struggling to rebuild their life in New Orleans ended up killing themselves and S.O. Again, the stress of re-locating and re-building must increase domestic tensions causing a rise in domestic violence.

[applegrove]

4. Look at demographics too. Are more people at that 18 to 40 age range?

Are more people using drugs? Is there a gang war when there wasn't one before? Gun laws? Jeb Bush policies. What has changed in the last bit?

[stillcool]

5. the crime rate is up here...

near Boston as well, including the murder rate. No surprise to me, as lack of decent jobs leaves necessity mothering invention in all sorts of ways.

[texasleo]

7. Is murder up 25% from last year in Boston?

[stillcool]

18. during the gubernatorial debates...

crime was an issue...It seems Massachusetts has the highest crime rate in the northeast...above Jersey, and New York...go figure..

Oct 15, 2006 10:25 am US/Eastern
Boston Concerned About City's Rising Violence Rate

In Boston shootings are up 21 percent over the last year. Homicides are up 12 percent, but that doesn't take into account three more deaths and four more shootings within the past few days.

Boston is not alone. Crime statistics show a surge in violence nationwide. Saturday at the annual convention for the International Association of Chiefs of Police, which is meeting in South Boston this week, Mayor Tom Menino addressed some of the 14,000 conventioneers about gun violence in particular
http://cbs4boston.com/topstories/local_story_287223225.html

[The Backlash Cometh]

14. I'm convinced that Katrina evacuees may be having a neg. impact

on the statistics, but I also agree that too many may be blaming the increase on the evacuees, and not the other economic factors.

[stillcool]

19. no doubt.....

I can not imagine, being evacuated from my home, separated from family and friends, and being strewn hither and yon with nothing but the clothes on my back. Sounds to me like a prescription for some serious consequences..

[texasleo]

6. "At least 65 slayings in 2006 have been classified as Katrina-related"

"meaning either the victim, suspect or both evacuated to Houston after Katrina."

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

10. Oops read it too quickly

[The Backlash Cometh]

15. Dopey me forgot there was more to the article.

That's what happens when you get interrupted in the middle of DUing.

[whistle]

8. The presidential mother, Barbara Bush expressed the republican

...sentiments about Katrina evacuees in her statement,

<snip>
Barbara Bush: Hurricane Katrina Good For Poor
"And so many of the people in the arena here, you know, were underprivileged anyway, so this — this is working very well for them."

She also said something that was equally compassionate :sarcasm: toward the poor and destitute the year before Katrina about returning dead U.S. soldiers from Iraq:

"Why should we hear about body bags and deaths," Barbara Bush said on ABC’s "Good Morning America" on March 18, 2003. "Oh, I mean, it’s not relevant. So why should I waste my beautiful mind on something like that?"

http://donklephant.com/2005/09/05/barbara-bush-hurricane-katrina-good-for-poor/

With attitudes like that, it is really hard to understand how Katrina evacuees could be driven to committing homocide, isn't it. :wtf:

[Rosemary2205]

9. You don't want to get me started on Katrina evacuees

My cousin has a large apartment complex and rented 30 vacant apartments to fema for a year for katrina evacuees beginning about 1 week after the hurricane. He agreed to take a higher rent in exchange for not doing background checks -- which were difficult to do since everything in New Orleans was offline. From the beginning the police were getting called out for gunshots, drugs etc many times a week. All but 2 apartments were totally trashed when the people moved out. We are talking pee on the carpets, holes in the walls and doors, kitchen cabinet doors ripped off the cabinets, trash and various food stuffs strewn about everywhere. It's like they purposely trashed the place. Thankfully he can make an insurance claim to repair the damage but he's very upset to say the least. FEMA will not take the responsibity.

BTW this apartment complex is a mix of middle and low income tenants. My cousin has had a very good experience with section 8 renters. He's never seen anything like this in over 30 years of owning this complex.

[The Backlash Cometh]

16. kick for enlightenment.

[nosillies]

11. The link in Houston could be argued, however, what source said there

were lots of evacuees in central Florida? As a former LA resident and current central FL resident, I pay attention to news about both Katrina evacuees and the high crime rate here, but I've never seen anything about having lots of evacuees here or the link between evacuees and local crime anywhere in the news -- certainly nothing like what's been repetitively covered in the Houston area. But maybe I've just missed something.

edit to add: I listened to a lengthy interview with Sheriff Beary and an OPD representative the other day, in which they both discussed possible reasons for the crime increase, and I never heard them mention Katrina evacuees. I did have to stop listening just before the discussion finished, though.

[The Backlash Cometh]

17. The guy seemed to know the number who were evacuated here.

It seemed pretty high. But outside of his personal conclusion, I haven't read anything either.