Dem candidate now only 5 POINTS behind in Texas governor's race!

[StellaBlue]

Off the Kuff reporting... http://www.offthekuff.com/mt/archives/008199.html#008199

Breaking: Hutchison poll shows Bell within 5

Houtopia has the best news I've heard this week. http://www.houtopia.com/archives/2006/10/the_rumor_mill.html


Word is, the Dallas Morning News will report tomorrow on a statewide poll conducted by Brian Epstein for Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. The poll will show Rick Perry is in deep trouble -- garnering just 32% support of those sampled -- with Chris Bell nipping at his heels at 27%, Carole Strayhorn trailing with 20%, and Kinky Friedman cratering in single digits. This is huge news, folks.

The most important number in the Governor's race (to us) has always been Rick Perry's. We figured that if Perry looked vulnerable down the stretch, the anti-guv vote would begin to coalesce around a single candidate. We also figured that candidate was likely to be Bell, considering he has a solid base of about one-third of the electorate. Well, Perry's in deep doo-doo. If he runs at 32% on Election Day he will likely be retired from his current position.

Not unrelated, there was also word flying around late this afternoon that uber-trial lawyer John O'Quinn has pumped another $2 million into the Bell campaign. This flamboyant, successful attorney is serving as a one-man IV for Team Bell. Can you imagine the kingmaker's bragging rights if his bet pays off?

Finally, Governor Perry has apparently bought a staggering $6 million worth of television for the final two weeks. Question: since apparently no one has been buying his message these last few months, why will things be any different now? Perry obviously senses he is in danger of losing this election. Look for him to go savagely negative against Bell.



Wow. A poll conducted on behalf of Kay Bailey Hutchison, meaning even Paul Burka will have to accept that it might possibly be valid. Combine that with the just-released SurveyUSA poll that has Perry at 36 and Bell at 26, plus the WSJ/Zogby poll that pegged it at 37.5/26.2, and we've got ourselves a race. How about that? Time to update that Governor forecast, fellas.

One thing to keep in mind: As Houtopia points out, Perry's recent ad buys have not really improved his numbers much. I believe that he may have a hard time depressing Bell's numbers, even with an astounding $6 million buy (as I understand it, one million is enough for a week's worth of ads statewide, so that's a triple-decker two-week block). Perry's problem isn't swing voters. They're already supporting Strayhorn and Friedman. What Bell has, what he has always needed to have, is the core Democratic constituency. How likely are they to run away now, in the face of a full-bore slime attack by Perry? I'd say it's at least as possible that this fires them up.

Remember what that Chron story today said:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/4282244.html

In the current race, Bell's campaign is counting on getting a very basic Democratic turnout. The Democrat who did the worst statewide in 2002 got 1.4 million votes, or 33 percent of the turnout. If Bell could match that, his campaign believes it would put him in the running to dislodge Perry in a five-way race.


That goal is looking more and more reachable, and if Perry can't get it up past 35%, it's looking more and more like it might be sufficient. The choice it clear: If you don't want four more years of Rick Perry, vote for Chris Bell.

http://www.chrisbell.com

[TxBlue]

1. 32% ? bwahaha!

Heard on CNN today Carville said that when an incumbent hits 43% they're in deep trouble. Ads may help but Texas has been hurt by Perry. Lots of people I've talked to, normally Republicans, won't vote for Perry because of the Trans Highway mess alone. Ads won't make a difference to them. I hear those ads & I just think what has he been doing while in office. Just not convincing.

Gov. Bell - I like that sound!

[StellaBlue]

3. There are five candidates in this race, and no run-offs in Texas

It's wild, wild, wild.

My dad, a GOP voter since Nixon, voted for Bell yesterday. I think we may be in for a surprise. We need to get some more of Kinky's votes, and a few from Carol, and convince unhappy anti-incumbent voters - like my dad - that Bell is the best alternative.

It's not impossible. And if Texas fell, the whole South would follow.

[Hippo_Tron]

17. To be fair to hairhat, Strayhorn votes are mostly potential Perry voters

But considering the Texas GOP's gerrymandering I'd say that all is fair in love and politics.

[Czolgosz]

26. Actually, Strayhorn now has more Democratic support than Republican support.

She's like our Lieberman. Having left the R Party, they are pissed at her, and she is coasting on Democratic support which will evoporate now that she is no longer viable and Bell is surging ahead.

[blogslut]

2. kicked

and nominated :)

[StellaBlue]

4. Thanks! This is HUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!!1

:bounce:

[villager]

5. seriously -- what's the dynamic? I thought Kinky would finish 2nd

Did he soften up the Repub? Is the Dem actually running a legit, strong campaign?

[StellaBlue]

7. The Dem is fantastic, but underfunded

Kinky gets free press, Grandma's backed by big dogs and some traditional Dem backers :puke:

We were all hoping this would happen... rally round the serious alternative... Perry is NOT popular. He IS "the hair".

Kinky has gone downhill because of 1) his racist comments; 2) his performance in the only debate. He's hemmorhaging, and, by the looks of it, so is Perry. I personallly know of three hardcore Republicans who voted for Bell yesteryday. :wow:

[TxBlue]

9. Kinky has been on TV Radio Saying unTruths - It Just Ain't so

I've been hearing Kinky on radio & TV everywhere. He's colorful & has been on nat'l tv news shows. Sure does seem like he could come up with better sound bites - same ole same ole over & over.
Saying he's up in the polls & it's not true for some time. Heard on Dallas 820 AM the dj's were saying Yeah Kinky's up in the polls to Chris Bell. Bell called them on it & told them they knew that wasn't true. AND they couldn't & didn't say anything.
Lots of smoke w/ Kinky but that hat has no cattle!

[Czolgosz]

28. Every serious election analysist has always said Kinky would finish fourth.

He's just a tick sucking the pro-animal rights, pro-pot legalization Democratic vote. Kinky endorsed Republican rubber stampers Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and Congressman Lamar Smith yesterday.

[villager]

30. Oy gevalt! The man who wrote "They Ain't Makin' Jews,

Like Jesus Anymore" endorsed Kay Bailey fuckin' Hutchison?

[Czolgosz]

33. Kinky said she was charming and “We have a lot of friends in common.”

The endorsement of Lamar Smith is even worse because John Courage is a great guy and because there are three independent candidates running in that race - if Kinky pretends to be an independent who says it's time for change, how can he pass up three independents and a great Democratic challenger to re-elect a douchebag rubberstamp and then publicly endorse him?

[NoPasaran]

36. Kinky did nothing but demonstrate he's an asshole

An arrogant, racist, nitwitted asshole. Who announced that he had voted rethug for senate and congress.

[TxBlue]

6. There goes the South! Stella you're giving me goose bumps!

Didn't think of that if TX goes there goes the South. Just want TX to go blue so bad haven't thought what that'd mean to others closer to blue.

TSUNAMI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[StellaBlue]

8. Yep

don't you think?

I mean, we're the worst of all in a lot of ways... the place that spawned Rove et al. As Van Os says, "This evil came from Texas, it's our job to kill it!"

[KingFlorez]

10. If Bell wins, that will be one of the best victories ever

Imagine the look on Shrub's face if that happened

[texas1928]

11. I wish Bell would come up here.

The only people who are running who have been here have been Kinky, and Strayhorn. They are up in the polling by local tv. If Bell would come up here and maybe run some ads. He might pull some more disillusioned voters around here. We have Perry commercials bashing Bell all the time. And then we have Kinky and grandma, bashing all of them.

If he would do that, plus release a statement on what he plans to do for prison guards. He can pick up a lot of votes. I posted about this in the Texas Forum.

[TxBlue]

12. what part of Tx are you from?

[texas1928]

14. Lubbock...

What part of Texas are you from?

[TxBlue]

19. Sherman - Bell came here & spoke w/ Melancon running for Rep

Got to meet Bell when he spoke at local Dem meeting.

[texas1928]

21. Now, don't rub it in.

:P

Lubbock Dems are the redheaded step children of Texas.

[TxBlue]

23. Sorry! Personally I was amazed Bell was here

[texas1928]

25. Oh and Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[TxBlue]

34. Thanks! Glad to be here

:grouphug:

[Longhorn]

13. Great news!!!

I honestly believe a lot of Republicans are going to stay home. Some just don't like Perry but won't be able to bring themselves to vote outside of their party. Many of the others will vote for Strayhorn. I think many Kinky supporters are coming to terms with the "quality" of their candidate and will either go for Bell or stay home. As always, turnout will make a big, big difference.

[moc]

15. Yeehaaw!!!

Happy dance!

:applause: :bounce: :toast: :applause: :bounce: :toast: :applause: :bounce: :toast:

[w8liftinglady]

16. not scientific,but ..early voting today

I saw a LOT of determined faces in my voting place.I hope they are determined to vote against Perry...I know I did.Go Chris Bell!

[BuyingThyme]

18. Thank you.

[Grebrook]

20. If we take Texas from the GOP, the FREEPERS will LOSE IT

[judaspriestess]

22. Woohoo!! I know San Antonio will go democrat

it always does!! I miss ya'll

Go Spurs Go!! :)

[Longhorn]

24. Where are the hot races in the state that will increase turnout? n/t

[lastliberalintexas]

39. I hope one is Jefferson County

We have a heated county judge race here, so I hope that our turnout is mucho higher than normal. The fact that we usually vote Dem is the only thing that had scared me, as I thought some people might be complacent in the county judge race. But from what we've been hearing, that's not the case with early voting so far...

[Canuckistanian]

27. Maybe Kinky will get bored and quit

He doesn't seem to be all that serious about the race. It seems to be more self-promotion than anything.

But what's the deal with Strayhorn?

[RB TexLa]

29. Must be the reason for the negative TV ad he began running

I was wondering why he would go negative, I guess he had some internals showing the same.

[bluestateguy]

31. If i'm wrong about this race, I'll be happy to eat crow

I never lived in Texas during the days when Democrats used to win elections, hence the reason for my cynicism. Democrats in Texas have had a problem turning out their voters in recent elections (where did all that money go that Tony Sanchez spent in 2002?).

Clearly though, it seems as if Bell has broken away from the pack and established himself as a competitive number 2.

[StellaBlue]

35. the key is that someone will win with a plurality

and Republicans are WAY more pissed off/apathetic here than on 02

[Czolgosz]

32. Recall the 9/5/06 WSJ poll had Perry at 30.7%, Bell at 25.3%, Kinky at 22.4%, Carole at 11.1%

Recall the 9/5/06 WSJ poll had Perry at 30.7%, Bell at 25.3%, Kinky at 22.4%, Carole at 11.1%

[SouthernBelle82]

37. Oh wow this is good news!

It would be so amazing to see Texas go blue. That's one of my dreams. *Sigh* Has John Kerry been out to Texas yet? I know Mr. Bell accepted Kerry's offer to go down to Texas so I was wondering if that has helped him in polls any or if Kerry hasn't been there yet. This is great! I hope all those people go out and vote.

[StellaBlue]

38. No, and I think Kerry would hurt him

Goodhair is already running "He's too liberal for Texas" and "Washington liberal" ads. :eyes:

Big Dog is supposed to come, schedule allowing, and I think that WOULD be good.