Autorank/TIA: Election Fraud 2006 – Quantifying Risk - Where & How Much

[althecat]

Scoop/Autorank/TIA: Election Fraud 2006 – Quantifying The Risk - Where & How
FROM: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0610/S00377.htm

PROTECTING THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE:
House and Senate Take Over Looks Good

Potential Election Fraud And Certain
Confusion At Polls Threaten Public Will.

By Michael Collins and TruthIsAll

“Scoop” Independent News
Washington, DC

************

FOREWORD: Four years ago in the 2002 US Congressional Midterm elections the polls pointed to close races in a number of key gubernatorial and senatorial races. In the vote count on election night however nearly all the cards fell in favour of the GOP. On election day November 2002 the GOP won control of the Senate and secured itself a rare lock on all three elected branches of Federal US political system.

In an article shortly after the 2002 election Scoop conducted a cursory investigation into what had happened..

Comparing pre-election polling data found using Google with the election results we found.
- 14 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Republican Party (by between 3 and 16 points);
- 2 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Democratic Party (by 2 and 4 points);

This article - widely read and linked at the time - began something of an odyssey for Scoop. Subsequent investigations – published with the help of numerous American patriots – discovered that the vulnerability of US elections to fraud was hugely greater than any of us could have possibly expected.

In mid 2003 Scoop participated in the release and exposure of the source code of the Diebold voting machines.



One might have expected that with three years notice something might have been done. But four years later in 2006 the election machinery is if anything more vulnerable to manipulation than it was back in 2002. Last week a new set of Diebold source code was even demonstrated to be in the wild again – it was supplied to a former Maryland legislator presumably by someone seeking to warn of the software's continued vulnerability.

In 2006 what is different from back in 2002 is that the GOP is polling at record low levels. This time the Democratic Party thinks it is on a march to victory. Karl Rove, architect of the 2000, 2002 and 2004 election victories of course thinks rather differently.

All this begs a question: If voting fraud on a similar scale to that which was indicated in 2002 occurs in 2006, can the GOP keep the house?

The following analysis prepared by internet poster and statistician Truthisall - and edited and presented by Scoop correspondent Michael Collins - answers this question and very importantly identifies where Vote Fraud 2006 is most likely to take place.

The unfortunate truth is that the level of electoral malfeasance required for the GOP to maintain control of both the House and Senate is much smaller than you might assume it to be.

- Scoop.co.nz Co-Editor Alastair Thompson (DUer Althecat)

************

Rev. DeForest Soaries, former head of the U.S. Elections Assistance Commission (EAC) said that voting conditions are “ ripe for stealing elections and for fraud.”

When a Bush appointee to the EAC makes this remark, it puts election fraud right at the center of the table. The upcoming elections are critical to the well being of the United States and the rest of the world. Given the recent history of strongly suspected election fraud, we need superior intelligence and added diligence to spot any foul play early. The potential for of investigation, revelations, and pounding the table for a fair election since 2004 has been squandered. Last minute bills for emergency paper ballots are going nowhere. We’re stuck with a voting system that is measurably less reliable than 2000 according to Rev. Soaries.

Yet, there is still a potential for the Democrats to win not only the Congressional Elections but to stave off the many temptations to interfere with the intent of “We the people.” Awareness by candidates, party officials, and, most critically, the grass roots activists is imperative. A huge turnout is also part of a fraud fighting strategy. The more participation, the more eye witnesses, the better our democracy is served. This document outlines the states and districts where the margins are thin and extreme diligence is required. Please forward the “Print” version of this article to the Democratic National Committee and the candidates in question.

This analysis by internet poster TruthIsAll is intended to provide a set of focal points and formulae to look for fraud. It’s offered in the spirit of winning through awareness and diligence and assuring that the winners are actually those candidates, of either party, who received a plurality of votes in free and fair elections.

For those who don’t believe that elections are vulnerable to the type of fraud Rev. Soires mentioned:

- Remember 2000, Florida
- Remember 2002 Georgia - Cleland & Barnes
- Remember 2004 Ohio and the rest of the country
- Remember 2005 Ohio Special Election - Hackett
- Remember 2005 Ohio Special Measures Election

The list is much longer but this makes the point to anyone who has followed electoral politics since 2000. Democrats need to anticipate the combination punches the Republicans throw in their election beat down, (e.g., voter suppression, spoiled ballots, tossed ballots, e-voting security problems, e-voting provided by Republican leaning vendors, etc. etc.). There will be a broad outline of risks later in the article but first the good news.

**********

The Prospects for Democrats Look Very Good

The strong Democratic trend continues. They lead the GOP by 16.5% in the 3-poll Moving Average, a 7% increase in the last month. Undecided (Other) voters, currently at 5-7%, appear to be breaking by 2-1 for the Democrats.


Click for big version


Click for big version

These charts display the positive slope of the Democratic trend vs. the flat GOP trend during the past 12 months across generic congressional polls. ">Chart 1 ">Chart 2

*******

The House: A Monte Carlo Election Simulation Forecast

1000 simulated trial elections. Based on Polls as of Oct.14

Current House: 232 Republicans; 202 Democrats; 1 Independent

The Democrats need to capture 16 Republicans seats (net) to gain control of the House. How many of the 58-contested Republican House seats can the Democrats expect to win, assuming a fraud-free election?

Corollary: How many elections will the Republicans need “win” to maintain control?

In the most likely scenario the Democrats will win 60% of the undecided vote, they can expect to capture 32 of the 58 Republican-held seats. There is a 99% probability that they will win 30 or more. Therefore, the Republicans will have to steal a minimum of 16 elections in order to retain the House.

Of the 58 polls:

1) Democrats lead in 15 races beyond the MoE
2) Democrats lead in 11 within the MoE
3) Democrats tie the Republicans in 5
4) Republicans lead in 15 within the MoE
5) Republicans lead in 12 beyond the MoE

The closest races within the margin of error are the ones most likely to be “ripe for stealing elections and for fraud,” as Rev. Soaries says, voter suppression, and those “coincidences” or machine malfunctions including vote switching.

They are the 22 districts between PA-6 and NY-29 in the chart: ">Chart


Click for big version

The analysis assumes nearly zero fraud and is based strictly on the latest poll shares, undecided voter allocation and margin of error. The model will be updated for new polling data and run again just prior to election day.

The simulation calculates the probability of the Democrats winning a specified number of the 58 seats, over a range of undecided voter allocation assumptions. It provides a very robust estimate of the minimum number of elections that would need to be stolen in order for the Republicans to retain control of the House.

In a published study of over 150 incumbent elections, the challenger won the undecided vote in 82% of the races, the incumbent won in 12%, and the rest were split.

Even with the very conservative UVA assumption that the undecided vote will be evenly split, then assuming the elections are fraud-free, it is a virtual 100% probability that the Democrats will net at least 25 Republican seats, or nine more than the minimum required for House control.

Sensitivity Analysis:

UVA: Undecided voter % allocated to Democrats
N: number of Republican seats won by Democrats
e.g. 25 seats gained at 50%] UVA



With a 60% UVA, the Democrats can
See a pick up of 34 seats at 51% probability.



This chart displays the probability curve: click here.

US House of Representatives: 58 Races in Play

House Polling Detail. Races 1-10:



Full 58 House Races here. House Probabilities here. Democratic % here.

Races 48-58:



These are the districts with the highest probability of fraud, voter suppression, or “coincidental” equipment problems. The races are all within the margin of error and thus would raise less of a question should they result in one of those last minute comebacks to put the Republicans over the top.



********

The Senate: A Monte Carlo Election Simulation Forecast

(1000 simulated trial elections
Based on Polls as of Oct.14)

Current Senate: 55 Republicans; 44 Democrats; 1 Independent

There are nine critical races: New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, Connecticut, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island

The Democrats need to hold their lead in New Jersey and win 6 of the other 8 seats for a 50-49-1 majority. They have solid leads in 5 GOP seats, a narrow lead in TENNESSEE, and are slightly behind in Virginia. Lieberman (Ind) is far ahead in CT. Assuming they win the 5 solid GOP seats and retain New Jersey seat, they need to win either Virginia or Tennessee for a majority.

Therefore, Virginia and Tennessee should be closely monitored for fraud or other irregularities.

Probability of Democratic Victories in the Senate.

Sensitivity Analysis: Assuming zero election fraud and that the Democrats capture 60% of the undecided vote (UVA), then with an election based on these polls, there is a 99% probability that they will win a 50-49 senate majority. The win probability is slightly lower (91%) if the undecided vote is split (50% UVA).



The analysis shows the relationship between undecided voter decisions at different splits between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate races. At a 50%-50% split with undecideds, the Democrats should pick up six seats right now. The hurdle to a larger pick up is significant given current polls. This can change quickly with adjusted poll data indicating a shift in public preferences.The difficult of getting above six seats reinforces the need for greater attention to signs of election fraud.

U.S. Senate: 29 Seats up for Election

Those marked in yellow are the critical races, and are top targets
for voter suppression and election fraud problems.

PROB is the probability of a Democratic win (assuming a 60% UVA)



Unweighted Poll Average: Dem: 49.5%, Rep: 42.2%, Prob.: 74.3%

Full list of Senate Races here. Senate Races by Democratic % here.

These races are still fluid and shifts are common in the last two weeks of the campaign.

Based on the data, these are the races that will determine control of the US Senate. Unless the Democrats plan for a 1994 election shift, special attention is required. Of these states, Pennsylvania had numerous election irregularities in 2004; Ohio’s election was a disgrace; Missouri was the site of poll closing and other controversies; Tennessee experienced problems with electronic voting. In 2005 Virginia had a recount that didn’t allow counting optical scan ballots!

Note that the polls and associated probabilities do not factor in spoiled and lost votes (mostly democratic) which occur in every election. This suggests that the net Democratic lead may be 1% lower than the polls suggest. On the other hand, the undecided vote (currently 5%) usually splits in favor of the challenger - in this case, the Democrat. So we may have a wash here.

The calculations don’t factor in a sudden event, an “October” surprise, for example, that might shift more races into one of the three categories. Given the impact of the Foley scandal and the likelihood of more in that or another emerging from the scandal rich terrain of the Republican congress, this is a very real possibility.

In addition, ABC News, in part of a general press turn around to more coverage is actually raising the likelihood of what they call “bias” as a result of e-voting. “Bias” here is surely a code word for fraud since machines need human intervention be biased.

The Election Fraud BEAT DOWN

The beat down first showed up in Florida when Republicans unified and did everything they could to scare Democrats off and turn a loss into a stolen election. With the exception of Al Gore resisting, the balance of the Democratic leadership stood back and allowed the distortions, “preppy riots,” and outrageous Supreme Court decision to go unchallenged. Beat down refers to the strategies of voter suppression, voter disenfranchisement, and extreme “leveraging” of technology that seems to favor Republican candidates time after time.

Greg Palast outlined key strategies that have nothing to do with electronic voting. These are time honored techniques that have been honed to perfection over decades. The following four points are provided in Palast’s new article, Recipe for a Cooked Election in YES magazine:

Four Traditional Voter Suppression Strategies from Greg Palast: No E-Voting Required

- Provisional Ballots Rejected. An entirely new species of ballot debuted nationwide in 2004: the "provisional ballot." These were crucial to the Bush victory. Not because Republicans won this "provisional" vote. They won by rejecting provisional ballots that were cast overwhelmingly in Democratic precincts. The sum of "the uncounted" is astonishing: 675,676 ballots lost in the counties reporting to the federal government. Add in the missing jurisdictions and the un-vote climbs to over a million: 1,090,729 provisional ballots tossed out.

- Spoiled Ballots. You vote, you assume it’s counted. Think again. Your "x" was too light for a machine to read. You didn’t punch the card hard enough and so you "hung your chad." Therefore, your vote didn’t count and, crucially, you’ll never know it. The federal Election Assistance Commission toted up nearly a million ballots cast but not counted. Add in states too shy to report to Washington, the total “spoilage” jumps to a rotten 1,389,231.

- Absentee Ballots Uncounted. The number of absentee ballots has quintupled in many states, with the number rejected on picayune technical grounds rising to over half a million (526,420) in 2004. In swing states, absentee ballot shredding was pandemic.

- Voters Barred from Voting. In this category we find a combination of incompetence and trickery that stops voters from pulling the lever in the first place. There’s the purge of "felon" voters that continues to eliminate thousands whose only crime is VWB — Voting While Black. It includes subtle games like eliminating polling stations in selected districts, creating impossible lines. No one can pretend to calculate a hard number for all votes lost this way any more than you can find every bullet fragment in a mutilated body. But it’s a safe bet that the numbers reach into the hundreds of thousands of voters locked out of the voting booth.

- Greg Palast 10.2006

The inherent unreliability of electronic voting

Electronic voting is always in secret and controlled by private vendors. Two of the three major vendors are United States corporations with very serious Republican ties. The third is foreign with undetermined ownership. The GOP-friendly voting machines (and companies) have major security risks including vulnerability to hacking, malicious code, subtle pre programming. These apply to optical scan and touch screen voting machines. These security problems have been clearly demonstrated by world leading computer security expert Haari Hursti’s hacks of both touch screen and optical scan machines and the recent Princeton University study.

Electronic vote tampering leaves no evidence for a prosecution.

If the equipment can’t be monitored sufficiently to catch fraud, it becomes a menace to voter confidence and the ability to insure that those elected and serving were actually elected in the first place. The ElectionArchive.Org makes the following key points in a pdf on election problems that is vital for everyone concerned about free, fair and accessible elections (click on link to download the entire presentation, a must for activists).

National Election Data Archive
P.O. 682556 Park City, UT 84068

Electronic Vote Tampering Leaves No Evidence to prosecute with - LINK TO PDF

- Machine code is not humanly readable
- Hundreds of programs on every machine
- Many months to reverse-engineer one voting machine
- Reverse engineering may find no evidence
- Network connections, hidden wireless cards or viruses in proprietary hardware & software can be used to undetectably shift just enough votes to change an election.

- © 2006 US Counts Votes

There should never be any need to review presentations like the outstanding resource provided by the ElectionArchive.Org, but there is one now. Given the ongoing voter suppression strategies in place for decades plus the new opportunities of elections through various means of digital exploitation, the time for vigilance is now. Everyone who is able should show up and vote. Everyone who is able should be involved with their elections demanding that they be run openly, fairly, and inclusively. Those who experience problems should report them. And those who are particularly motivated can contact these organizations who will provide outlets for the type of energy necessary to develop an election system that will allow us to say with certainty that we live in a real democracy. Free, fair, transparent, and inclusive elections will also allow those who assume office to actually prove that they have the right and mandate to do so through a legitimate election.

Partial list of groups working against voter suppression and election fraud:

- The NAACP - action.naacp.org
- Election Defense Alliance - www.electiondefensealliance.org
- League of Women Voters - www.lwv.org
- Velvet Revolution - www.velvetrevolution.us
- Advancement Project - www.advancementproject.org

*************

© Copyright: Please feel free to reproduce and distribute this in any fashion you feel suitable with an attribution of authorship and the publisher, “Scoop” Independent News, plus a link to the article.

FROM: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0610/S00377.htm

[DoYouEverWonder]

1. We've got to keep an eye on these bastards

and it sure helps to narrow it down has to where to look.

Great work guys.

[althecat]

3. It would be worth getting a bit organised again I think...

Unfortunately the there is probably little constructive that can be done now to stop fraud occurring short of finding the fraudsters in their hideout ready to do the evil deed.

We have largely failed in our efforts on that front though we have succeeded in the past 2 years in seriously raising the profile of the central issue.

Consider the fact that the DIEBOLD SOURCE CODE disks recently found have the names of the CIBER and WYLE labs on them. These are the same software testing labs who have demonstrably failed to do their jobs repeatedly in the past - they were publicly exposed as industry captured frauds and incompetents and yet they are still the frontline "official defenders" of voting integrity.

So we can assume fairly safely I think that tabulation systems and DRE machines remain completely compromised.

If anything any would be vote fraudsters have probably been emboldened by what happened in 2004. How many actual recounts were conducted in Ohio in the end? Has their been a recount in San Diego? Speculatively thinking is it more or less likely that fraud will be detected in 2006 via recounts?

....

Gnight I do beleive I may be depressing myself.

Will check back in tomorrow and see how things are going.

It would be nice if some DU activists could get set up now to monitor the close races and record a chronology of events by race between now and election day.

Unfortunately all the outrage around here tends to arrive after the event not before.

[katinmn]

6. Thank you, allthecat!

Scoop is my hero. :)

[BeFree]

16. Yeah, organised

It is hard to get organised on this board and that is to be expected. But there is a great swell of understanding of the problem, tho it may not be evident to some.

What bothers me the most is not how this board responds, but how the Dem party apparatus has responded. They think Dems lost those elections! But we see from your assemblage of the facts that the Dems most likely won the majority of past elections.

I have been pushing this idea in my locale: the machines are not to be trusted and should have an audit. The response from grassroots Dems has been overwhelmingly in favor of the audits. But the higher ups are not willing to discuss the idea. It seems the same scenario exists across the nation.

The solution is to get the higher ups taking a stand on how our votes are counted. Dean has expressed his doubts about the process, who else has?

We need to hit the higher ups in the party with your facts. How do we do that?

[autorank]

61. TruthIsAll is very organized....Rokken. Watch out election thieves.

[truedelphi]

48. It's a shame that we only have Robert Kennedy Jr pounding

The proverbial shoe on the table

Why won't Pelosi or Feinstein or Clinton shock the airwaves about the issue.

Though it was nice to hear on Mainstream TV today that Lou dobbs was looking into the issue (either earlier tonight or perhaps tomorrow's show)

[autorank]

2. Thank You althecat...This is a wonderful presentation.

And people need to look at 2002 and also the role of "Scoop" in providing the vital information not available here to quantify the entire project of a few misguided souls who screw up ourl electoins.

But it was worth it all, being up this late, to see this line:

"One might have expected that with three years notice something might have been done."

Oue might, wouldn't one.

You are a very good and constant friend of every American who wants to vote and
have that vote counted.

:patriot:

[katinmn]

5. Great work! No wonder I haven't seen you around lately

You've been busy, my friend.

I expect to see a looooong drawn out election, similar to 2000-01 but with many seats. Maybe more people will fight this time. The awareness that there is a "potential" problem is finally being discussed publicly. Why nothing has been done in the past six years (except to make things worse by public funding of the vote stealing machines) is the big frustrating question.

[autorank]

7. We will PREVAIL or there will be a ton of recalls ..remember RECALL!!!

"(except to make things worse by public funding of the vote stealing machines) is the big frustrating question.)"

Been busy, is true. Nuts to this. I'm ejecting that we win and if not then there is an process called

RECALL ELECTIONS FOR EVERY SINGLE QUESTIONABLE ELECTION RESULT...Every one!!!

Count on it...in fact count the votes right and you can avoid this...

[vanboggie]

9. K&R and bookmarked! n/t

[livvy]

4. Outstanding! K&R and on to the Greatest!

edit: can't type right this early in the morning.

[autorank]

8. Sweet!

:hi:

[mod mom]

10. WOW... Will get this distributed to the list servs!

You're a rock star Auto!

:patriot:

[Peace Patriot]

11. Fabulous election resource! Thanks so much! Everyone needs to keep

this handy on election night!

Some thoughts:

1. The 2004 (s)election

That list of provisional ballots tossed, spoiled ballots (mostly Dems), absentee ballots shredded and vote suppression estimate, adds up to roughly 3.5 million votes. I presume these are 2004 stats. Didn't Bush "win" by 4 million votes (2.5%)? Add in a few Diebold/ES&S tweaks here and there--nothing massive, just wherever it was opportune--and you have Stolen Election II. Personally, I think vote suppression and voter purges were a lot higher than a few hundred thousand. And I think the e-voting tweaks weren't just tweaks but were substantial in many places. I don't think the 2004 election was close. I think they had to work hard to steal it, and had to pull out all the stops. I think Kerry won by 4-5% (if all the voters who wanted to could have voted), and we know he won by 3% of the votes cast (as evidenced in the real exit polls).

So, I am not so sure that only the close elections this time need to be monitored for fraud. They have the capability of big flips of the vote. They've done it a couple of times. And the stakes couldn't be higher. Impeachment. Jail. There is every reason to believe that they will go all out in '06 on every vote suppression tactic, as before, including big and surprising reversals, via secretly coded electronic vote tabulation. I don't think they will get away with it so easily this time. And they risk losing their election theft capability for future purposes, to citizen outrage. But we have to be prepared for that event--psychologically and strategically. They HAVE the capability. What is there to stop them? A much more educated populace; a hot election reform movement; much more vigilance; and some hope that the Democrats might not put up with it this time. Is that enough?

There are some contra-indications, among them, a feeling that there may have been a split between the Corporate Rulers and the Bushites, as evidenced by the corporate news monopolies unleashing an old sex scandal on the Bushite Congress four weeks before the election. Boy, was that weird. Torture, mass death, massive thievery, they don't care. But sex, wow! Why would they do this? To take the focus off Iraq? Well, if so, that hasn't worked. Iraq is front and center. So maybe a divergence of interests has occurred. Bush/Cheney have become bad for business? Mission of looting the U.S. treasury with multiple tax cuts for the rich accomplished? The Bush Junta has gone too far? Dunno. You just get a bit of a feeling that the corporate media want to chasten these criminals, and therefore might not let them get away with stealing these elections. On the other hand, when have the corporate news monopolies done the American people any favors? They could be just playing us, and setting us up for the end of democracy. The sex scandal may have been to take the focus off the torture/suspension of habeas corpus bill.

Vigilance, on all races, I would say--with special attention to the close ones. If these were normal times, the Democrats would be about to wipe the floor with the Republicans--and, considering what the Bushites have done, sweep almost all open seats. The fact that there is serious doubt that the Democrats will even get a slim majority tells you how far down the river we already are, as a country and as a democracy. We need to maintain equilibrium and hope, and yet be prepared for the worst.

Absentee Ballot voting

Absentee Ballot voting is the ONLY guarantee that you will be able to cast a vote in this election. Machine "breakdowns"--whether by accident or design--are a pandemic. And it's all set up for strategic "breakdowns." Long lines. No paper ballots available. People forced to vote on "provisional" ballots, or can't vote at all. All strategically designed to suppress the progressive vote. They HAVE the capability.

But if you vote by Absentee Ballot, you will have a real paper ballot in your hand (delivering it to your polling place), or already in the mail to the registrar. You will already have voted! (I recommend mailing it certified/return receipt requested, to insure that it gets there--and early mailing, to insure that it gets counted early.) If the machines "break down," YOU will not be denied the right to cast a vote. Nor can you be denied the right to cast your vote because of some tiny discrepancy in your voter ID, or because you think you're registered and you show up at the polling place, and find that you are not. None of those obstructions to voting will affect you.

The California deadline for requesting an Absentee Ballot is OCTOBER 31. Plenty of time. (The CA deadline for registering to vote has already gone by, but if you're registered, you can still get an Absentee Ballot.) Check local rules for other states.

The list above includes destruction of Absentee Ballot votes as one method of Bushites killing democracy. Well, we just have to FIX THIS by tough monitoring, insistence on proper handling and counting of AB votes, and MAKING NOISE about it. We can't let this go by, and just say, 'yeah, sure, go vote on Diebold's diabolical vote stealing machines, and good luck to you.'

The Absentee Ballot Protest

Many, many voters are PROTESTING these machines--BOYCOTTING them--REFUSING TO vote on them, by voting with an Absentee Ballot. The war profiteering corporate news monopolies are ALREADY trying to spin this as voters choosing "convenience." I've seen two major articles with this spin over the last week. And it is B.S.! The dramatic rise in Absentee Ballot voting has closely paralleled the cancerous spread of Bushite-controlled electronic voting systems over the last four years. California has had the biggest increase in AB voting of all, and AB voting has ALWAYS been convenient and with easy rules in California. Why the big increase in Absentee Ballot voting NOW? It is a PROTEST against the machines! We have some BIG Diebold problems in California--a Diebold shill as Sec of State, appointed by Schwarz; a Diebold shill as county elections head in Los Angeles (where FIFTY PERCENT of the voters voted by AB in recent elections), and some very e-voting corrupt county election officials in other places. THAT's why AB voting so big in California! And I suspect it's the same all over--people DON'T TRUST these machines!

Election reform activists need to get out in front of this protest, and start providing some focus and leadership, in particular to push corporate news media to interpret it correctly, and--most of all--to use it as a club to beat election officials over the head with, and force them to reform this system. The huge increase in AB voting is the voters' "vote of no confidence" in these expensive, crapass, hackable voting machines. It's a very good sign! It means that they KNOW. But they may not know that AB votes are also vulnerable, which brings me to point three...


3. The electronic CENTRAL TABULATORS

The analysis above states that the "trade secret" proprietary vote counting software is found in both touchscreens and optiscans. But it's most lethal location may be in the central tabulators. Optiscan votes (paper ballots) AND many Absentee Ballots and other paper ballots are scanned into the rigged electronics. Your vote is turned into electrons, and "sent" to the central tabulators, thus separating the vote from the evidence of the vote (the ballot). The danger is that, once your vote becomes easily manipulable electrons, it can be changed, and the only way to insure that it wasn't is to HAND-COUNT every paper ballot. Not 1%. Not 2%. All of them. Some states have NO audit at all. The best states--the best!--have a 1% audit. Meanwhile, corrupt election officials have called the election in the Bushite's favor, and just try to get a recount (which generally is only 3% anyway) after that happens. All momentum is against you. It's expensive and difficult--and election officials hate recounts (and corrupt officials can screw them up).

To begin with, we MUST insist on a HAND-COUNT of all Absentee Ballot votes, and posting of the results, BEFORE any electronics are involved. This should also be the procedure for Optiscan votes, as long as we have those machines around. How this machinery ever got into place without this vital "check and balance"--a 100% audit, at least for the first few elections with these new machines--is a long story. Suffice it to say that "checks and balances" were NOT DESIRED by the crooks who funded the fast-tracking of these machines all over the country, to the tune of $3.9 billion. (--the Anthrax Congress, chiefly Tom Delay and Bob Ney, abetted by corporate 'Democrats' like Christopher Dodd.)

Anyway, it's the central tabulators that are screwing up our elections, in my opinion. They are eating ALL of the paper ballot votes. And nobody's checking. The touchscreens are, of course, an abomination. And ALL secret coding should be banned. But I just don't want us to forget--as election reform proposals arise--that if we don't get rid of this secret coding, and corporate control, in the central tabulators, and we're only doing 1% audits, or no audits, we might just as well just let the Corporate Rulers decide who runs our government, and forget about democracy.

------------------------

Thanks again to Autorank and TIA for these election analysis tools! You are awesome!

[KoKo]

26. Thanks to you Peace Patriot, Autorank, Al and TIA for all of this...

This election is the TEST for '08 and the work of so many Voting Rights Activists have cataloged enough info for this election to blow the fraud right out of the water.

We may not win the races we need to take back House and Senate...but the Fraud this time will be traceable because of all the work or folks keeping the issue out there, working in their states in ways to try to push back the crooks and by keeping this issue going on the internet long enough that the MSM is finally having to report the "possibility" that our election system is now totally corrupt.

If we don't win we have a chance to clean it up...and if we do win we can hope to get these machines out because Conyers already has the evidence from '04 and Voting Rights Activists will keep at it until our Dems join together and do something. One first step would be to give us the Legal Right to vote which Congressman Jesse Jackson, jr. and others had proposed when Conyers held hearings. We need to have the "Legal Right to Vote" to give us the power to clean this mess up.

We have to have hope that whatever the outcome...the Groundwork has been done and it will be easier in the future to make the changes necessary for '08.

And a toast to ALL those who have kept the memory of "Selection 2000" alive against all odds. :toast:

[texpatriot2004]

12. K & R for Transparent Democracy nm

[msedano]

13. Sadly, such admirable analysis finds itself a sow's ear...

...when presented to the above average US voter. "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the unitedstatesian people" or something like that, no? At any rate, I look forward to the day after the elections. Is our nation strong and democratic, or gulled and an oligarchy? a ver...

btw, recommended.
mvs

[autorank]

14. I'm a big fan of pork

...but not that part of that useful and cleer barn yard "target of opportunity."

There is surely a lot of "misunderestimation" out there but on the day after when we all wake
up thinking, surely there will be a recount, and there's nothing to count, the people will know
a rat when they smell it and see the results.

Thank you for the recommendation. I'll work on my Huey Long rhetoric for the day after...

[reprehensor]

15. Fight it.

Good shite.

[autorank]

17. Knowledge is power...like a counter punch;)

[Me.]

18. Scream!

As loud as you can and don't let up if this happens and the hell with the old "don't want to look like a sore loser" response. Though in the last several days it struck me that if the pubs were smart, and we know they aren't, they'd make sure the dems take the house. The country is a wreck and it would be in their best interests, now that they have so messed up, to have the dems share the responsibility and blame. But should they succeed in another fraud I will predict that after the next 2 years no republican will ever be elected to anything. A third party will be formed and it will be them and the dems. I also believe the * will not accept any laws a new congress passes, will refuse outright and will have to be dragged out of the WH and slammed into a padded cell.

*shadow government*

[autorank]

19. I think Boxer prevented that on 1/6/05

If there had not been a challenge, the betrayal of black voters by the Republicans and the abandonment of their interests by Democrats would have blown things apart. Its too bad nobody at the party elder level really understood that except a few people (that's why they let Boxer do it). Lets have the people take over the party, what a concept;)

:hi:

[Me.]

21. Dean's 50 State Strategy Is A Good Start In That Direction

He's been criticized (as I'm sure you know) by "bigwigs" Emmanuel and Schumer for placing the emphasis on the grassroots (heaven forbid). Fortunately, he's done what he thinks best. Oddly, whatever happens on Nov. 7th, is a win for us. If we get one or both houses we can put the skids on * and try to begin the restoration. If fraud is attempted again, there are too many voices out there for it to get a pass. Polls say the American people now think there has been huge voter fraud. If they go to the well again, it will open Pandora's box and expose it all. They do so at their peril.

*shadow government*

[autorank]

55. Dean is one of the few gems in the crown. He was right on Iraq & the 50

state strategy. He was saying, why take a pounding in states just because we don't visit them. He promised to get the South back in the fold and guess where he went right after winning Chairman: the South. People remember stuff like that, it's a lot of good will. Very bright guy. Only rolled once by the Mandarins at DNC, the report on Ohio. He learned on that one and has done the rest right.

Thanks Dr. Dean!!!

[Melissa G]

20. K&R! Thanks auto and althecat! n/t

[mopinko]

22. if ANY of these races are "yours" du-

get thee to your board of elections, and sign up to work the polls, then go here-
http://volunteerforchange.org/go/signup/5406++5310

elections in this country depend on citizen poll workers. if enough of them said, hell know i will not certify those results, or even checked the canvas to make sure the totals that were repoted were the totals that they sent, or came forward with evidence of the hanky panky that they see, it would be a different world. if you feel helpless as a voter, be a counter. be a witness. it takes either ignorance or complicity on the ground. du'ers in the polling place erodes both of those things.

[AzDar]

23. Kick..........n/t

[Swamp Rat]

24. k&r

:kick:

[Land Shark]

25. Great contribution to the awareness of the issues here, THANKS

[autorank]

56. You're welcome sports fan;)

Wanna know why they're smiling?



Rove just found out he got that Dubai condo for a song. He'll be leaving
soon.

[bleever]

27. Thank you very much. Have you sent this to Dean, Pelosi, and

Emmanuel? Terrific work.


:yourock:

[autorank]

35. Sent it to DNC but will do so for them as well. 2 more of these coming.

I talked to TIA and he's got another set of polls he's working on and will do some work just prior to the election with the last set so we'll be targeted at least.

Thank you!!!

[bleever]

45. Kickety.

[femrap]

28. I've printed this out and taking it to our local

Dem HQ....everyone needs to read this and be prepared for the worst.

[autorank]

36. Great...and go the Scoop link and hit the Print Icon -- that layout is great

for printing (even I amaze myself sometimes, the "print" button makes for great printing, incisieve)

I hope more people do this or just use the link at the link to DNC in para 2 to get it to the DNC.

They have a vote hotline and lawyers who are supposed to show up when you call. This was Dean talking so I believe him. He got in a nice dig about Iraq saying "who would believe them after all the lies they told about going to Iraq." Sweet payback for him.

[truedelphi]

49. Will high tail it to HQ of local Dems next week

[autorank]

52. Spread the Truth...there will be at least one more update from new polls.

Monday maybe;)

Where else can you get this stuff for a modertely price subscription?

[rumpel]

29. A monumental contribution, autorank & TIA!

If the Dem leadership and their "advisers" do not heed the citizens will this time around - they certainly can not be helped, and is an indication that We The People will have to wrest the advisory position. Perhaps a peaceful revolt against the status quo, business as usual in Washington. :)

It is of utmost importance to tell voters, voting is not another "errand" as Working Assets replied to me in their e-mail, every single person you vote for, whether for the State, Federal or Court we are vesting our voice and rights to them.

This wonderful document outlines what we can do, what every citizen can do aside from casting a vote, we can protect each others right to vote - if we stand in line and someone is being denied to exercise their right - can we raise concerns? - or do we have to turn a blind eye?
Can we call? Can we report? Can we document?

As Peace Patriot says, we have to observe the tallying - anything that is on paper - absentee & provisional can be documented - do not let them shred, discard - scrutinize.

Be quick in raising problems, we only have a few days to do so after the election - err on the side of caution

As for the tabulators - unfortunately, the citizenry has no power - fortunately we have the experts we can turn to.

thanks autorank & TIA

:applause:

[autorank]

54. Very kind words for us and wise words for citizens.

:hi:

[FogerRox]

30. I would add one point. We have seen "R" turnout significantly lowered during

the primaries. Georgia IIRC a 6% DEM advanatge, Rhode Island 10pts. I guess the conventional wisdom is that DEM turnout should be higher all around. Pew's recent study on Evangelical voters also suggests this. I can only hope that Turnout on our side is 7,8,9, 10% higher. Coupled with folks pulling the DEM lever in record numbers.

We shall see.

[autorank]

37. The Evangelicals will be home, I suspect. Many of them and I don't

blame them. This phony morality is really offensive to people who truly share a particular faith. It's a mockery. The book by the ex WH aid who heard the gib wigs modking fundamentalists hurt the WH more than they can imagine. But then again, they can't imagine much except "get ouf of ail free" strategies for torture and illegal wars.

[Joe Chi Minh]

31. Great work, as usual, Auto! "Matters of great pith and moment"

seem in the balance, but I hope and feel sure that you all must prevail, if it means weeks or months even. Though I wouldn't anticipate too many months, if any. I think the neo "con" is way past having run its course.

[autorank]

38. That's true. The real "Neo" is the one, the "neo" in "con" is just that,

another political con, a low brow Huey Long (and I mean that sincerely, Long was far more sophisticated than these guys).

It time that they go and go now.

:hi:

[Joe Chi Minh]

70. Yes, I've seen and read a bit about Huey Long. He was some

shrewd operator, all right.

It's a shame that so many really bright populists turn out to have been motivated, in reality, simply by personal ambition, or become corrupted along the way.

[In Truth We Trust]

32. K&R for democracy. Thanks everyone! Hand Counted Paper Ballots NOW!

or fascism forever.

[althecat]

33. Thankyou Rawstory.... KKKarl Knows Which Races To Watch....

Good morning everybody & Thankyou Rawstory....

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Rove_dukes_it_out_with_NPR_1025.html

"I'm looking at all the same polls that you're looking at every day," Seigel responded

"No you're not!" Rove exclaimed.

Rove said that he was reviewing 68 polls a week, and that "unlike the general public, I'm allowed to see the polls on the individual races," as opposed to public polls reported in the media.

"You may be looking at four or five public polls a week that talk about attitudes nationally, but that do not impact the outcome," Rove said.

Rove claimed that the polls "add up to a Republican Senate and a Republican House."

"You may end up with a different math, but you're entitled to your math," Rove said. "I'm entitled to 'the' math."

[autorank]

39. Rove just discovered that envelope full of code in his brief case...

Some people even smile for mug shots.

[understandinglife]

34. Recommended.

Thank you.


Not One Line Of Software Between A Voter And A Valid Election.

[autorank]

40. You are welcome. The very best regards to you!!! n/t

[BelgianMadCow]

41. Adding this thread to my election 06 focus thread & a question

to the good people reading this thread and autorank specifically : do you have a kind of "voter handbook" of things to do & know to be an informed & well prepared voter?

Oh, and another one : have you heard about independent exit polls that will be conducted?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2470509

[autorank]

58. Hi, here's a great place or three

Project Vote http://tinyurl.com/y7xz5y

Election Defense Alliance http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/

League of Women Voters www.lwv.org/voter

Hope that helps. If that's not what you need, reply here or PM me.

:hi:

[BelgianMadCow]

71. The EDA I already had, but League of Women Voters is very helpful

thanks!

A copy of the voters' right I'm gonna try and include in my thread as well.

[melissinha]

42. One question

If we know how to hack the codes on the tabulators, can't we essentially monitor them ????? I know its not legal to access them in the first place, but all I am suggesting is monitoring them (no funny business).

[althecat]

46. Doing so would be a federal felony I would think....

... and very hard to prove you were doing it for virtuous reasons.

[autorank]

59. Well, our government should have a system that is easily monitored.

althecat is right. You can't touch the machines digitally or otherwise. Neiter can the Feds or locals. The "goods" are all under wraps by the vendors. :sarcasm: They know best don't they. They're the vendors, the wise ones who have only our best interests. Which is why they control the elections.

Get involved with the Election Defense Alliance link in OP. They kick some serious ass.

:hi:

[KoKo]

43. Kick!

:kick;

[autorank]

60. Kick right back at you

:dem:

[Kurovski]

44. K&R &bookmarked.

To finish reading later.

[lala_rawraw]

47. Kick with both legs```

[autorank]

53. Update, new polls, analysis Monday. althecat's Forward was GREAT!!!

TIA and I were honored;)

[Wilms]

50. .

[Ellipsis]

51. kick n/t

[autorank]

62. Check for msg x028238 of the special code;)

It's in Finnish!!!

[mvd]

57. Looks good!

And there's been no evidence that polls have shifted from those used here..

[autorank]

63. Well TIA is gathering new poll data and we'll update. It's looking

good preliminarily. More races are opening up. TIA started with a mydd.com list of 31 races a week ago and he expanded that to 58 races. Now the movement with in those, linked to my web site in the OP, looks positive for us. Cool, huh. They will take a grave risk if they try to mess wit this election. People expect change. Do not fool with the American voter when they know that their friends and neighbors are predominantly voting Democratic. That would be very ugly.

In reality, the voter suppression so commonly used against minorities will be there and we better joln with them as a united front...by "we" I'm talking about the new organizations in the latest iteration of the Voting Rights movement.

[Binka]

64. Kick! How Is TIA Btw?

Hope he is well. Thanks for this auto and you too Al. I might even think about moving back home if we take the House & Senate.

[autorank]

66. He's well and busy.

This is quite a study of the congressional races. Large scope, elegant presentatoin. It's highly relevant and can have an impact if they look at it. I hope we do win the House so you come back. Meantime, take care of that kittie;)

[althecat]

65. I really hope you are right Autorank...

But seriously, after experiencing the past 2 elections, the expectation of theft the actuality of theft, the incredulity of the media and the cravenness of the DNC... I cannot say I am a beleiver in the American public standing up for their rights.

Now Mexico.... :)

[DemReadingDU]

67. morning kick

and thanks to autorank & tia for all their outstanding work!

[bleever]

68. .

[FogerRox]

69. Kick