Could the House Majority Flip Back and Forth Several Times in the 110th Congress?

[tritsofme]

If either party ends up with a nominal majority of one or two seats, its very likely that in a chamber of 435 people that over the course of two years some of those congressmen will die or resign for other reasons.

This could make for a very interesting Congress in that the majority flips several times and the special election to replace the recently departed congressman becomes a very important race to determine who will control the House.

Just an interesting scenario to ponder.

[longship]

1. Thank goodness the House isn't going to be close this year.

That would be an extraordinarily bad situation. The partisan rancor would rise to a new highs. The power battles would be significant. Dems would likely take the blame.

We need to make sure that this doesn't happen. At this point, it looks like the House is going to be safely in Dem hands in January. However, we all need to work extra hard the next two weeks to insure that that happens.

[tritsofme]

2. I'm not comfortable predicting a large majority

And despite what Republicans have told you over the past 12 years, what they had and have now is a very slim majority.

5-10 seats in the House max, IMHO.

As a student of politics this situation would be quite interesting, but practically its a nightmare.

[longship]

3. I *am* comfortable.

You need to look at the big picture *and* the direction of the accumulated House race polls. They are all moving one direction. Jean Schmidt might lose her seat in OH-6 to Dr. Victoria Wulsin. Ryun is in trouble in KS-2. And so many others like that. There are races in trouble for the GOP which nobody had ever considered.

The conclusion is inescapable to anybody who choses to take the trouble to look at what's happening.

Of course, one can adhere to the premise that it's all going to go down in flames of voter fraud, but I choose not to do that. Also, I am working on GOTV which is very much an anti-voter fraud technique this time.

Question is, what are you doing?

[tritsofme]

4. I don't know if that's supposed to a slight

I live in Melissa Bean's district, probably the only vulnerable Dem incumbent in the House, and I've done phone banks and knocked on doors throughout the neighborhood trying to get the vote out. It might not be as much as you have done, but I put in what time I have.

That being said, hubris about this election is going to get us anywhere either.

[longship]

5. What you possibly call hubris, I call optimism.

I'm sick and tired of the gloom and doom. I want something to celebrate, like the way that the Repukes have self-destructed themselves the past 15 months.

I'm working hard, too. May we all be paid back for our hard work in 13 days.

[Hippo_Tron]

6. They've pushed through their agenda pretty effectively with slim majorities

I don't see why we won't be able to do the same.

[tritsofme]

7. They ran their caucus like slave runners

They keep votes open for hours and threaten those that don't fall into line.

I hope we don't devolve into that.

Our party is a bigger tent, we have thirty-some blue-dogs to contend with, a possible GOP majority in the Senate, a filibuster at least, and ultimately the veto pen.

Pelosi's House can make some statements, but won't be able to back them up as much.

[Hippo_Tron]

8. That is true, but if we win the House they will have to vote on OUR agenda

And that includes things that are very popular with the American people such as raising the minimum wage. There will be Republican crossover votes.