Rothenberg: How High the Wave? Don’t Just Think 1994; Think 1974, 1958, 1982

[longship]

Stuart Rothenberg has turned the corner on the 2006 midterms. Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato are nearly there, too. But here's Rothenberg's latest take on what's happening before our very eyes. This is going to big, folks. That's why we can't let down our guard, why we have to work extra hard to make sure we get all we deserve.

With only a couple of weeks until Election Day, we know there will be a Democratic wave on Nov. 7. And we can be fairly certain that by historical standards it will be high - possibly very high. But we still don’t know how many Republicans once considered safe will be swept out of office.

The national political environment currently is worse than it was in 1994, when the Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats and 10 governorships, and when Republicans won GOP control of the House for the first time in decades.

You heard me right: It’s worse this year than it was in 1994, when voters were dissatisfied with the first two years of the Bill Clinton presidency.

President Bush’s approval ratings are worse than Clinton’s were - Bush’s are in the upper 30s, while Clinton’s were in the mid-to-upper 40s - and the 16 percent approval rating for Congress in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll ranks far below where Congress stood prior to the 1994 midterms (24 percent).

<much more at link>

How High the Wave? Don’t Just Think 1994; Think 1974, 1958, 1982

I feel strongly that the national pundits have had this election year all wrong. Now I'm seeing that some people other than me are seeing the true importance of those big issue poll numbers. Two weeks out and Rothenberg is the first to join me, however as I indicated above, both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato have published similar sentiments, albeit considerably toned down. Those candidate polls are telling the picture. The GOP is in for a real shocker on November 7th.

[Syrinx]

1. Rothenberg says Democrats could pick up 60 seats

:bounce:

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

2. Bush's sphincter just puckered up another notch in tightness - from fear

[Cobalt-60]

5. They can help him with that at Guantanamo

I understand they specialize in sphinctoral dilation.

[radfringe]

13. that's why

- the sudden cut and run from stay the course catch phrase

- all of a sudden there's serious talk about milestones/benchmarks

- tony snow talked about how bush want's to DETOXIFY politics (toon coming today)

- increase in attack ads (if fear don't work - use smear)

[requiem99]

3. There is no way we can lose a legitimate election this time.

But the qualifier "legitimate" may rule out us winning at all.

[longship]

8. Please think about what you wrote.

Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook are counting 70-80 competitive House races at this time. That's those races closer than about 5 percentage points. Plus, there are already several Repuke House seats which are *lost*. The national party has even given up their support for many races, including up to four of the Senate races.

The GOP knows the depth of the hole into which they've dug themselves. They know that the number of races in play is so large that they do not have the resources to cover them all, let alone "rig" them.

Open your eyes to the depth of the GOP problems. For the past 15 months, there has been not one smidgeon of good news for ChimpCo. These failures have shed light on all of the other failures for the past six years. It's like a light has been turned on after a long night of darkness. All has been revealed. From the failures of 9/11 to the Foley scandal, the GOP have accomplished nothing, zilch, nada, zero. Now the electorate is keenly aware of this fact. That's what all those big issue polls are telling us. That's why their levels are at or near historic lows across the board.

Now, do people actually think that with disaffection of this depth and this breadth that people are going to just walk into the voting booth and pull the lever next to the Republican candidate? At what level is the ChimpCo base? We may find out on November 7th.

The GOP sees the same chaotic candidate poll results that we do, except they know why they are chaotic. They are chaotic because their assumptions are flawed. The standard models are failing. Their predictive power is gone because this year is completely different. The candidate polls are either measuring chaos, or they are measuring nothing. We're going through a political state change and won't know the results until November 8th.

It could be 24 House seats, or it could be 60, or more. The Dems will likely take the Senate, too. Unlike the House, the Senate has an upper limit, at about nine seats. We won't get that many, but we could get seven.

The whole point of this exercise is the big issue polls at such unprecidented levels that something big is afoot. Those people who are so focussed on the candidate polls and the money raised by candidates are missing the much more important big picture. When one considers everything there's only one conclusion one can come to. There are going to be lots of surprises on November 7th.

[requiem99]

18. Electronic voting machines and tabulation means that electoral fraud is centralized and easy.

And because it has already happened, it will keep happening until we have oversight, punish those responsible, and take steps to ensure future elections are far more tamper resistant.

[BlueIris]

4. Nice to see an '82 reference in there. One of the first posts I read here...

was from a Ronnie-hating man who said that November (2nd...?) 1982 was one of the greatest nights ever. Hee. Not trying to get overconfident or anything, but...that would be nice.

[flyarm]

6. AND TO THINK..THE FEEPERS IN 1994 WERE ONLY MAD ABOUT

NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE... wonder how many wish we had it now?????????????????


but what do we have now..??
-the failure of this administration on 9/11 and almost 3000 dead americans..and nothing but lies about the failure !

-an illegal war we were lied into..
almost 3000 dead soldiers..

-debt up to our eyeballs!

-a failing economy

-45 million with no health care... many who are children
tax cuts for only the very very richest

-Vets benefits cut ..during 2 war theaters..

-pedophiles in the republican ranks..

-corruption up the asshole by republicans...

-the destruction of our constitution and bill of rights
-Cheney admitting to water boarding and torture
-a media that is so partisan that no one gets a word in other than rethuglican talking points
-male prostitutes in our press briefing room and with incredible access to the family living quarters in the white house for over night stays..( remember the beating up of Clinton over the Lincoln bedroom..well just who the hell is in little lord pissy pants bedroom?????? move over Laura..gannon is in the house!)

-manipulation of gas prices..( yes even my gas guy says it is being manipulated!)
-pissy pants ready to declare war with anyone who he deems a PNAC problem to their agenda!


and all of that is only starters..

and to think back at 1994..and all the american people gave a rats ass about was not wanting national health care for all citizens!

AND WHO HERE REMEMBERS THE "HARRY AND LOUISE " COMMERICALS???????

ahhhh to have that time back...

now we have nothing but corruption..and destruction of this once great nation!

those commericals were the gateway to republican hell!

fly

[Warren DeMontague]

7. I never knew what the fuck they were so mad about, actually.

It was always some weird AM radio limp-dick Clinton hatred. Never made any sense. The guy was a great President.

[Fed Up]

9. no more knocking, this time we're going to break the door down.

I really really hope this is all true. After all we've been through since Gore proclaimed "I offer my concession" I know it all seems too good to be true, but every day things look better and better.


I would even be thrilled if the Democrats were only to pick up 20 seats, but it looks like way more are in the mix!!! I mean, in July 2005 Pee Republic was saying stuff like "If it looks impossible for the Democrats to pick up 15 seats, that's because it is."


Like the Republicans in 2002, we are just ahead everywhere. I mean, everwhere. This time we pound in the door.

[Hardrada]

10. And behind you folks loom those of us on the Far Left

in a growing throng furious and carrying banners, ropes and torches. Once those doors go down.....

[Justice Is Comin]

11. Schumer is cool as a cucumber over the internal polls he's seeing.

He says they have enough money to play offense and defense. He hasn't even started rolling out his war chest yet. Waiting until the last week.

He wouldn't be doing that if things weren't looking real good.

[Fed Up]

12. Rothenberg is all but saying "This one is bagged"

Before the Foley scandal, one conservative talking head said "Republicans believe they will lose 6 to 8 seats in the House."

My how things change. LOL.

[longship]

14. Morning kick.

:kick:

[Bozita]

15. Rothenberg was on C-SPAN's Washington Journal today

Some of the callers were brilliant.

[donsu]

16. this morning he said he didn't believe there was much vote rigging/fraud

not anymore them usual.

and he said the neo cons didn't lie about Iraq, they just got the info wrong.

maybe you missed that.

[longship]

17. How is this related to my citation?

Sure, he's a Republican. But what's important here is what he is saying about the upcoming election. He's seeing that something very big is about to happen. I happen to agree with him on this in spite of the fact that his political views are still horse shit.

Note, that the other political analysts (Cook, Sabato, etc) are beginning to say the same kinds of things as Rothenberg. So, it isn't just Stuart who's chiming in on this. The consensus is that the GOP is in huge trouble.

[TahitiNut]

19. The difference lies in the gerrymandered Reichbot districts.

Neither party has been innocent of gerrymandering in the last 50 years, but the obscene excesses of the facist right in the last fifteen years has been enough to gag a maggot.

[WI_DEM]

20. except due to redistricting it is difficult to see dems gaining as many

seats as the GOP did in the House.