POLL roundup for October 26, 2006 - Dems WIDEN lead in 4 new generic ballot polls

[Grebrook]

Four new polls today show Dems continuing to increase in the generic ballot advantage:

Fox News: Dems lead by 11%, up from 9%
Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 38%

Zogby: Dems lead by 11%, up from 4%
Democrats: 44%
Republicans: 33%

AP-Ipsos: Dems lead by 19%, up from 10%
Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 37%

Hotline/FD: Dems lead by 18%, up from 13%, and a 40-40% tie months earlier
Democrats: 52%
Republicans: 34%

I know generic ballot poll numbers isn't necessarily telling, but when the advantage is this huge, it will undoubtedly trickle down all over the map. We're going to wipe out the GOP. Make no mistake.

Look, I know a lot of you guys HATE good news, but I'm going to keep kicking this damn thing until you finally surrender and except the fact that we're going to WIN, whether you like it or not.

Note on each individual poll:
*Fox News polls have a tendency to skew towards Reps by a few points, and in this poll only 50% of Americans oppose the Iraq War, clearly a skewed figure. At best, it's 55%, more likely, it's anywhere from 58-63%, so this poll should be heartening to say the least, because it's skewing Dems and Dem-leaning independents by at least 5%, and Dems are still ahead by 11%.
*I don't know enough about Ap-Ipsos or hotline to make any concrete judgements about them
*Zogby is overwhelmingly recognized as the single worst polling organization in the country. It really is a horrendous pollster. The polls always tend to show races in a dead heat, with opponents separated by a mere 4-5%, when in reality they're leagues apart. I also note that this is the case in ALL races, and it doesn't skew in favor of Democrats OR Republicans. It's just a REALLY shitty polling group. The worst. I just felt compelled to point out that even Zogby has given Democrats a 7% higher edge than in their last poll. So take that anyway you like.

[Grebrook]

1. Look, I know you guys HATE good news, but too bad

[Change has come]

2. . . .

Kinda like farting in a museum. It's not to late to edit.

[Vidar]

3. Great news. Thanks for posting, Grebrook.,

[BuyingThyme]

4. I think you're a little tough on Zogby.

Aren't their election polls always close because they wait for the break?

[Jack Rabbit]

5. Thank you, Grebrook

This is good news.

[Grebrook]

6. UPDATE: I analyzed their in-depth results and it seems I was right, the breakdown of

respondents was:

39% Dem
36% Rep
22% Ind

This skews towards Republicans for two reasons. According to Rasmussen, which is the best polling outfit in the country, the actual breakdown of political affiliation is as follows:

37% Dem
32% Rep
31% Ind

Now, this is important because independents are more heavily Democratic this year, and the independents they sampled were only slightly in favor of Democrats, 43-29%, which seems wildly off the mark at best. All polling by other major organizations has pegged it at 55-30% for Dems. And hence including more independents in their (Fox's) poll would have produced better results for the Democrats, and Democrats have an extra 2% affiliation. Hence the results are skewed by maybe 5% overall.