http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061025/APP/610250914<article>
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Fears among Florida Republicans that U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris' campaign bid for the U.S. Senate could hurt the party in other races may have been well founded, a poll released Wednesday indicates.
Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson has widened his already comfortable lead over Harris in results announced by the Quinnipiac (Conn.) University Polling Institute. Nelson was favored by 64 percent of likely voters to 29 percent who opted for Harris. She gained national attention as Florida's secretary of state when she oversaw the 2000 recount that gave George W. Bush the White House.
And while Nelson goes up, Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist has gone down.
"The expectation among the electorate that Representative Harris is headed for defeat can't help Republican turnout," Quinnipiac assistant poll director Peter Brown said Wednesday. "The fact that she's not going to be competitive could be discouraging and close elections are won at the margins."
The new Senate poll comes on the heels of Quinnipiac's survey on the governor's race, where Democrat Jim Davis has nearly caught Crist. The two are roughly even in that contest with Crist favored by 46 percent to Davis' 44.
"We always knew this was going to be a tough race and it has proved to have been that," Florida Republican Party spokesman Jeff Sadosky said. "Our voters are very educated to who all is on the ballot. We don't have any worries about the ticket being affected."
State GOP leaders talked Harris out of a Senate bid in 2004 and tried again to keep her from challenging Nelson, fearing she would not only lose but spur a large Democratic turnout that would damage the entire Republican ticket.
Nelson was even favored by a third of Republicans polled in the survey of 816 likely voters between Oct. 18-22. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Two weeks ago, Nelson led Harris 61 percent to 33 percent.
The poll also showed that 52 percent of the Florida respondents would prefer a Democratic takeover in Congress compared to 35 percent who favor the Republicans keeping control.
And Floridians continue to lose confidence in the job performance of President Bush. Forty-five percent said the performance of the Bush administration and Congress makes it less likely they will vote for GOP candidates compared to only 18 percent more likely.
"The political climate is just eating up Republicans," said Kenneth F. Warren, a professor of political science at St. Louis (Mo.) University. "It's obvious Republicans are very nervous about it."
Early voting began Monday in Florida and continues until Election Day, Nov. 7.
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Quinnipiac took out a poll on the U.S. Senate race down in Florida. As expected, Bill Nelson continues to trounce the witched Witch of the South, Katherine Harris. 64%-29%
Now, this is old news, but they also noticed something else. Democrats are apparently coming "home" when it comes to deciding who they're going to vote for. 52% of Florida voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, only 35% prefer Republicans. Now, why is this significant in Florida particularly?
There are 25 U.S. house seats in Florida. Republicans control 18. That's 72%. The latest poll in the governor's race shows that the Democrats have even pulled to within a few points of Crist. Could the Florida GOP be the next state GOP to join the list of imploding state parties around the country, among such other vaunted entities as the Ohio, NY, Arkansas and PA state parties?
If they do, it's going to be a very welcome surprise, because Florida, thus far, has actually provided the least amount of pickup targets for Dems, who expected 3 competitive districts at most. Could this be Florida's large population of senior citizens reacting angrily to talk of Social Security Privatization?
Hopefully.
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