THEY NEED 60 VOTES FOR CLOTURE

[berni_mccoy]

I don't think they'll get it.

There are only four Repubs who haven't declared their vote (Chaffee, Collins, Snowe, Stevens). That gives them 58 yes votes for cloture.

That means a likely two dems have to vote yes for cloture who are voting no on Alito.

Do they have the 2 votes, and who will those 2 be (and remember, they can't be voting for Alito, I've already counted them)?

[in_cog_ni_to]

1. Byrd and Nelson will vote yes. IMCPO.

:grr:

[berni_mccoy]

2. I've already counted them... They need 2 dems who voted NO to Alito

To vote Yes for Cloture.

[Justitia]

7. Do you have Landrieu? She's "yes" to cloture. (BARF) -eom

[berni_mccoy]

16. Nope, that's one... one more to go...

[kentuck]

3. The 3 Democrats that voted for Alito will also vote for cloture...

And there are 3 or 4 other Democrats that have said they will not vote to filibuster - they will vote for cloture. That means Chaffee, Snowe, and Collins can draw straws t see who gets to sit it out.

[berni_mccoy]

5. I've already counted all Dems who voted for Alito

But who are the dems who will vote against Alito but for Cloture?

[Beetwasher]

4. Right, That's the Crucial Number

And it's even possible that the Dems who said they are voting FOR Alito may still abstain from voting for cloture.

BTW, 3 Dems are voting yes for Alito: Nelson, Johnson and Byrd.

[kentuck]

8. It is true they could vote for nominee and against cloture...

but that is highly unlikely.

[berni_mccoy]

10. But they *could* abstain...creating a shortfall for the repubs...

That is more likely than voting yes for Alito and no for cloture.

[Idioteque]

6. That's what's great about cloture...

It doesn't matter how many Senators vote no on cloture, only that 60 Senators vote yes. If some Democrats don't wan't to look like they are supportign a filibuster, they can simply not vote.

[WilliamPitt]

9. They don't need cloture

if five Democrats vote for Alito. 41 Senators are needed to sustain a filibuster. Byrd, Nelson and Johnson have already indicated they are 'yes' votes. Lieberman sure as hell won't filibuster, and will probably vote 'yes' as well, which leaves a margin of one. It's simple math at this point.

[Beetwasher]

11. Hasn't Lieberman Already Indicated He'll Vote No On Alito?

:shrug:

[Justitia]

12. Lieberman just said "no" vote on Alito. -eom

[WilliamPitt]

20. OK

But will he support a filibuster now that Byrd has indicated 'yes'? I doubt it.

[ScreamingMeemie]

21. Yeah, me too....BUT this is why I am overnighting a "written letter on

paper" (in his speech, Byrd indicated an afinity for the written word, to his Senate address...begging him to rethink. To not base his vote on what he termed a farce of a hearing.


Sen Byrd
311 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, D.C. 20510

I urge others to do the same.

[Justitia]

24. Probably not, just letting you know about the Alito vote. -eom

[kentuck]

28. He was one of the gang of 14, we should remember...

So Joe would prefer to vote against Alito and for cloture. That way, he gets his cake and eats it too.

[Justitia]

29. This is what I am most afraid of. And it's the most likely. -eom

[ScreamingMeemie]

13. Lieberman actually gave an eloquent speech against Alito today...

I was stunned, I tell you.

[im10ashus]

26. Leiberman?

Joe Lieberman? From Connecticut? I am glad I was sitting down when I read that.

[ScreamingMeemie]

27. The very same...He actually used the words "Profoundly concerned"

hang on to your hat. :hi:

[im10ashus]

31. Geebus on a trailer hitch!

I am going to have to find the transcript. I thought he was too far removed from reality. :hi:

[berni_mccoy]

14. Isn't it 60 votes to cloture?

If they don't have 60 votes to go to cloture, they don't vote.

At least that's the way I read it?

[im10ashus]

34. That's my understanding as well. n/t

[kentuck]

35. That is correct...

They would need the 55 Repubs and 5 more votes. They have 3 Democrats already committing to vote for Alito. They have Landreau and Feinstein saying they would not support a filibuster. And there are still some questionable Democratic votes to be decided. Pryor, Lieberman, and Salazar are likely not to support a filibuster. That would give them 63 votes...assuming they get all the Repub votes...and that is a likely assumption.

[benburch]

15. From your lips to Eris' ear, Will.

:evilgrin:

[Skidmore]

17. Okay, I'm confused.

Can they announce how they will vote for the guy and not vote for cloture?

[berni_mccoy]

19. Sure, that's what is making this interesting.

[ScreamingMeemie]

22. Yes they can...last minute lobbying by fellow senators and constituents

can change a mind.

[stop the bleeding]

18. I'm confused as hell - I am at the point of stepping back to see where

the dust ends up settling

[kentuck]

23. Which of the moderate Repubs would turn down their leadership??

If requested to go to the mat for Judge Alito. Certainly not Chaffee or Collins. Perhaps Snowe? Most likely all would vote for the Judge if they receive any pressure from their leadership, unlike our own Senators.

[in_cog_ni_to]

25. What about DiFi? She has said all along there's no reason to filibuster.

She's a possibility. She's voting no on Alito, but COULD vote yes for cloture.

[berni_mccoy]

30. With Landreau, that would be the 2 the repubs need...

So now we wait and see...

[Justitia]

32. Or we get clarification from DiFi. Anyone heard for sure? -eom

[kentuck]

33. What about Pryor?

He certainly will not vote to filibuster - being one of the Gang of 14. I doubt that he will vote against Alito also.

[Pirate Smile]

36. Here

""Kerry to Lead Filibuster?
According to Bob Fertik, Sen. John Kerry's office confirmed he'll lead a filibuster against the Samuel Alito Supreme Court nomination upholding his promise during the 2004 presidential campaign.

However, the effort may be short-lived. The Washington Post reports several Democrats are breaking ranks and now backing Alito, including Sens. Johnson (SD), Byrd (WV) and Nelson (NE). In addition, Landrieu (LA), Feinstein (CA) and Salazar (CO) have said they do not support a filibuster. With 55 Republican votes and these six Democrats, the GOP will have the votes for cloture. "

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/01/26/kerry_to_lead_filibuster.html

[berni_mccoy]

37. There you go. That's 61.

Kerry will need to do some serious arm-twisting...

[Shrek]

38. Landrieu and Salazar will vote for cloture

See here and here.

And Byrd, Nelson, and Johnson have said they'll vote to confirm, so it's a safe bet they'll vote for cloture also.

Add these 5 to the 55 Republicans and there's enough to stop any filibuster attempts.

[berni_mccoy]

39. On Second thought... maybe Kerry can change their minds?

I heard Kerry is calling Dems to gather a solid 41 to enforce the filibuster.