Read it and weep, Macacawitz

[Coexist]

plf515 has utilized loess curves to assess all of the key Senate races. The trend he shows for Virginia's senate race is matched by Kos's new report:

Woah. The latest DSCC internal looks nothing like the public independent polls. If these numbers are confirmed, it would suggest that the "Webb writes smutty books" stunt the Allen people tried to pull has backfired disastrously. Garin Hart Yang (D) for the DSCC. 10/26-29. Likely voters. MoE 3.5% (No trend lines)
Allen (R) 38
with leaners: 43
Webb (D) 43
with leaners: 47


Kos also notes:

In the poll, 53 percent of Virginians disapprove of Bush's job performance. Asked who they voted for in 2004, they said Bush by a 50-42 margin. The actual results were 54-46, suggesting that the sample is solid.

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[Hav]

1. .

It would be too good if it happened.