Is the local media setting the stage for another election theft to replace Tom DeLay in Texas?

[Mugsy]

In the race to replace the seat being vacated by Tom DeLay in Sugar Land, Texas, DeLay was so late in getting his name removed from the ballot that the name of the political novice they tapped to replace him, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, won't even appear on the ballot. Instead, she is a "write-in" candidate, challanging 5-term Democratic Congressman Nick Lampson. A Lampson victory was considered all but certain until just this past weekend:

From "Mugsy's Rap Sheet":

Media’s baseless claim of a possible “upset” in race to replace Tom DeLay.

(...)

But suddenly, the local media is reporting “a strong possibility” of a Sekula-Gibbs upset victory. Here is their basis for claiming a possible upset:

62% of likely voters in District-22 say they are AWARE that there is a viable write-in candidate in the D22 race (and only 61% of those say they even know how to vote for a write-in candidate using the eSlate voting system.)

Of that 62%, 36% say they will be voting for Lampson, 4% for the Libatarian Bob Smither and 35% say they’d vote for a write-in candidate. (Remember that Gibbs’ name does not appear anywhere on the ballot, so 100% of her votes must come as “write-ins”.)

Got that? Lampson not only has a higher percentage of those who say they know there is a write-in candidate available, he also will draw votes from the 38% of voters that AREN’T aware there is a write-in candidate. While Gibbs draws 35% of just the 62% who are.

Wait! Scratch that! “35% say they’d vote for “A” write-in candidate”, not Gibbs specifically. So Gibbs will be sharing that 35% with “Mickey Mouse” and “Al Koholic”. Suddenly, this doesn’t sound like such a close race afterall. Hmmm.

(more...)

But maybe I'm just missing something. Anyone care to point it out to me?

[texasleo]

1. not sure about that, but they'd better spell her name to a fkin Tee!

Or the Dem lawyers should strike them.

[Mugsy]

2. I guess "Jane Smith" was busy.

I thought about that too. It's not the easiest name to spell, and it has to be absolutely perfect to avoid the argument that the voter meant "someone else".