Who will win the election?

[Onlooker]

Factor in whatever you want: early November surprises, election fraud, etc.

[bmbmd]

1. Color me pessimistic.

It's not who votes, it's who counts. Modest gains in both chambers.

[waiting for hope]

2. The fourth option

is not one I would even want to contemplate. There is too much momentum right now not to take back at least the House.

[Onlooker]

3. If the Repugs are as corrupt as we fear ...

... then why wouldn't they do everything they could to steal the elections? I think they'll make it look good, but in the end, Repugs will amazingly win 3/4th of the closest races and hold onto both houses.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. You know, I agree they will steal, but I kind of think that they

may shoot for 50-50 senate - just to make it look real. The house is the real problem for them. Forcing a hearing, under oath, on energy task force has got to leave them shaking.

[NavyDavy]

4. here we go 3 nay sayers, I think we will take both houses....

I think we will take congrees big and the senate by a few seats

[Hugin]

5. Using *MY* math...

I'd say the Democrats are doing very well.

[SammyWinstonJack]

7. But *THE* math says otherwise!

:eyes: I like *your* math!

[Hugin]

8. *MY* math is correct 86.5% of the time...

Unlike Karl, I don't depend on partial credit or having the back of the book.

*snort*

:7

[Recursion]

6. "Other": elections suspended on account of Terra Terra Terra

Then again I thought that about '04, and I was wrong.

[derby378]

10. I noticed the GOP seems to have dropped the "Nancy Freakin' Pelosi" strategy

Interesting...

[in_cog_ni_to]

11. The Dems win BOTH..HOUSE and SENATE. n/t

[peabody71]

12. Look for results that don't match polling.

I would almost expect a stolen election.

[onenote]

13. I voted other: Dems take House; Senate splits 50/50

[WI_DEM]

14. As of right now I say Dems gain 22-30 seats in House and

Four in the senate. We will win PA, OH, RI, MT and VA, but GOP will take TN and MO. I also think they will take out one of our guys--Menendez in NJ. So a net gain of four seats. So Dems will go up to 48 in Senate (plus Sanders in VT will vote with us). The Dems will take the House. The other big story of election night will be major gains among Dems in the Governorships.

[natrat]

15. dems gain a few seats but get neither chamber-the vote is crooked

[SheilaT]

16. I checked "other".

In a free, fair, and honest election we would definitely take the House, and very probably the Senate.

Given the actual state of our election system, it will in the end depend on to what extent we make this election free, fair, and honest. And the willingness of Democrats to challenge results. Otherwise, we'll be reading on November 8th about how those hard-working Republicans simply did a better job of GOTV, and how the polls right before the election were simply wrong, and how exit polling -- what little there will be -- is notoriously unreliable.

It is also possible that the election will be close enough to fair that we'll take the House with a slim majority, and maybe wind up 50-50 in the Senate. It's also important the recall how many incumbent Democrats have given in to virtually everything this administration has asked for, including the war vote and the torture vote.

[dkofos]

17. Polls are tightening up. By this weekend most races will be close

enough for the repubes to steal.