More Polls- Mostly Good News And A Bit Of Bad News

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The bad news is for Ford...


http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/images/10/31/TOPSTATE.pdf


Look at the discrepancy between registered and likely voters in Missouri. That's disturbing. We need to get our voters out there!!!

[WI_DEM]

1. It's so close among registered voters in TN, but among likely voters

Corker is leading by 8-points!! I thought that Dems were supposed to be more motivated to vote. This means that many of Ford's voters are not motivated for some reason.

[Clark2008]

4. Well, maybe we need to do something to motivate my fellow

Tennessee dems.

What can we do?

[WI_DEM]

6. it doesn't make sense to me since I think Ford is the better candidate

by far and run the better campaign. I thought that racist ad would have backfired and motivated Ford's people. On the other hand the poll could be wrong.

[Edgewater_Joe]

8. Or ...

... the racist ad DID work and is getting all the latent haters ready to vote for Corker.

[Clark2008]

11. I found this, though, regarding the above poll:

Pollster US Senate looking at this website we can see that the cnn poll is further away from the average of the most recent polls than the BSD poll. If any poll should be thrown out it should be the CNN poll. if you want to throw both polls out then thats somewhat understandable, but to try and use the excuse that the BSD poll is an outlier is completely nonsensical considering the CNN poll is further away from the average numbers than the BSD poll

Also there is more evidence that the CNN poll is either flawed or had some bad sampling error. The same poll also tested for Bryson/Bredesen It had 59% for Bredesen and 37% for Bryson. This is almost laughable.

Pollster TN governor the same website tells us that Bredesen’s average is 64% and Bryson’s is 28%. Its hard to imagine anything that would lead to that big of a swing in that race, where Bryson gains 9 points!!! and Bredesen loses 5%. It seems pretty clear that the sample was tainted with a much more right leaning crowd. This poll may not have intended to be right slanted but the outrageous turnarounds for corker and bryson after nothing substantial happened for either of them seem to be pretty unlikely.

Furthermore, that same poll’s registered voters (which has a much larger sample size) only had corker at 47% and ford at 45%.

Touting this poll might seem like the best thing for the campaign but upon further inspection it is clear that this poll is severely flawed.

http://haroldfordjr2006.blogspot.com/2006/10/for-corker-camp-reality-hurts.html

Granted, this is only conjecture from a Ford supporter, but it makes sense when you look at the other polling numbers. Possibly an outlier.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. It Could Be An Outlier...

When you have blowouts like the Nelson race in FL what difference does nine or ten points make.

IMHO Harold's model would have worked better in some more "liberal" southern states...


TN isn't Mississippi or Alabama but it's not Floida, Georgia, North Carolina, or Virginia either...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Xactly...

The difference between the likely voter and a registered voter is a measure of intensity...

[gully]

26. Could that be the bigot vote?

?

[bluestateguy]

2. The NJ race is a big relief

Obviously, I want a Democratic Senate and House, but a Senate that is divided 50-50 +Cheney, or 51-49 Republican still leaves it possible for Democrats to be obstructionists (yes, lurkers, I said that word). The minority party in the Senate has a lot more power than they do in the House.

[roamer65]

9. I'll take a Dem House and 50-50 Senate

It would certainly be a LOT better than we have now. I think we are going to find on election night that most of the Democratic gains will come from the blue states and some of the western states and perhaps Florida.

[gully]

27. I agree, especially in a climate where the R's are trying to distance

themselves. Those in close races, may re-think their blind allegiance?

[Nikki Stone 1]

3. kick for Missouri

:kick:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. If Those Results Hold We Win The Senate.

Poor Harold Ford... It looks like Tennessee might not be ready for an African American senator. He ran the perfect centrist race. I think he would have been more successful in a southern state like VA, NC, GA, or FL.


Or the poll can be an outlier...

[shah269]

7. these poles scare me

Remember during the last presidential election all the poles in the world said that Kerry had it in the bag!
Remember! The war was going badly, consumer confidence was low, god himself had stated that he did not like Jesus H Bush.
Yet still...still that poor little rich boy won!
I don't trust these poles!
I wish I could!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Most Of The Final O4 Polls Showed A Small Bush* Lead Or A Pickem

http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm#Pollster

[onehandle]

14. Different story this time. We're Way ahead.

The Freeperverse will explode in a week.

Unlikely they'll be able to get it up for their sisters that night.

[bluestateguy]

16. Polls, not "poles"

nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. What's In A Homonym?

eom

[WI_DEM]

18. it's funny now how we remember things, but in '04 most polls had

Bush ahead during most of the campaign (by a small margin) from the time of the GOP convention.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Rarely Enter These Arguments Because They Become Very Emotional

We have a share of our "faith based" voters here but the lion's share of the final polls had Bush* ahead in 04 and the same raw exit polls that showed Kerry winning also showed Dukakis winning in 88...


I think it's possible to tinker with the votes at the margin but wholesale theft would be more difficult...

[NYCGirl]

20. I note your concern, and will give it the consideration it so richly deserves.

:evilgrin:

[peacebaby3]

23. Uh-huh...

"poles" :rofl:

Could it be any easier?!?!?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Let's Not Be The Grammar Police- His Heart's In The Right Place

eom

[peacebaby3]

30. Signed up today and a making note of the so-called "poles" in '04

Very defeatist attitude. The grammar was just one "tell-tale sign."

Please go check out the other posts on some threads. We'll see...

I don't think I broke any rules by noting that "poles" was spelled incorrectly. Not too hard to notice since it was spelled correctly in other posts in this thread. I would consider that a "hugh and "series" mistake. They should send someone better next time.

[WilliamPitt]

25. Goddam Poles. They should all go back to Krakow!

Um...

[MyNameGoesHere]

28. Why do the "poles" scare you?

Are they too long? I like the "poles" damn good Vodka.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Stop...

eom

[Libby2]

13. Oh boy!

I about died when I read that this morning, but I'm not surprised, knowing some of my fellow Tennesseans.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Let's Not Give Up Yet..

Could be an outlier... But we would be hypocritical and silly to embrace the polls we like and reject the polls we don't, especially when it's the same pollster...


I so wanted and want Harold to win ... It would be a redemptive moment for the south...

[champt10]

22. Virginia

I'm not sure how reliable this poll is because in likely voters, it has webb up 4 points on Allen. So since I dont really think that is exactly accurate, neither do I think Ford being down 8 is.