ALITO Senate Explainer...WILL IT WORK?!!!

[mb7588a]

My last thread on this was my attempt to explain how Alito could be confirmed no matter what we do.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x228570

And now that explainer is out of date, so here’s a thread saying how a win could come about since Democrats are filibustering. Frist has announced Monday at 4:30 there is a cloture vote. So here's what can happen:

1.a.) Republicans do invoke cloture on Monday at 4:30 (60+ votes): Debate is limited to 30 hours, 15 hours for each party. Then the vote is held and you can skip down to the next possible outcomes at number 2.a. and 2.b

1.b.) Republicans do not invoke cloture on Monday at 4:30 (less than 60 votes): NUCLEAR OPTION is done by Frist and Cloture rules are changed from super majority to simple majority (This hinges on Republican members of the Gang of 14.). 50 or more Senators then invoke cloture with Cheney’s tie-breaking vote if necessary. There is then 30 hours of debate, 15 hours on each side, and a vote is taken at the end. Now see 2.a. or 2.b. below.

1.c.) Republicans do not invoke cloture on Monday at 4:30 (less than 60 votes): NUCLEAR OPTION is done by Frist and Cloture rules are changed from super majority to simple majority (This hinges on Republican members of the Gang of 14.). 51 or more Senators can then sustain the filibuster and the Alito nomination is dead via successful filibuster (Highly Unlikely?).

1.d.) Republicans do not invoke cloture on Monday at 4:30 (less than 60 votes): NUCLEAR OPTION is NOT done by Frist and Dems get 41+ and Alito confirmation is dead via successful filibuster (Highly Unlikely?). No confirmation vote is held.

1.e.) Republicans do not invoke cloture on Monday at 4:30 (less than 60 votes): NUCLEAR OPTION is done by Frist and Cloture rules are changed from super majority to simple majority (This hinges on Republican members of the Gang of 14.). Dems can then procedurally shut down the Senate. This results in a stalemate and no business can proceed, including the Alito nomination.



2. When/If confirmation vote is held, two things can happen…

2.a.) 51 or more Senators vote against confirmation. Alito confirmation is dead. (Keep in mind 55 Senators have already announced intentions to vote to confirm.)

2.b.) 50 or more senators vote for confirmation with Cheney's tie-breaking vote. Alito is confirmed.



The unpedictable and unknown variable on Monday will be the actions of the Gang of 14. Those are the ones we have to watch.

How we can win:
1.b.)
1.d.)
2.a.)

Possible win:
1.e.)


Anything missing here?


on edit: 55 are voting to confirm, not 54.

[mb7588a]

1. This happens in 10 minutes!