NBC/WSJ Poll: Democrats With Commanding Lead, Iraq's The Reason

[BurtWorm]

From dailykos.com:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/10/31/185121/27


by DemFromCT
Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 03:51:21 PM PST

As for overreacting to the Bush-Kerry non-story, a slow news day is detrimental to in depth news coverage, it seems. While the cable news producers may think it's important, it is not likely that anyone in the voting public cares.

Iraq? That's a different story altogether. From the WSJ:

President Bush is getting a bit more credit from voters for positive economic news, but there is little sign the modest bump is benefiting fellow Republicans in a midterm election campaign dominated by voters' anxieties about Iraq.

A week before Election Day, the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows the president receiving improved marks for handling the economy, an issue Republicans are increasingly emphasizing in their 11th-hour attempts to hold their congressional majorities. Amid rising stock values and falling gas prices, Mr. Bush essentially breaks even on the issue with 46% of voters approving his economic stewardship and 48% disapproving. That is up from 39% approval and 56% disapproval in June.

Yet raging violence in Baghdad in recent weeks has further darkened Americans' mood about Iraq -- the issue voters call most important to their election decision-making. The result: voters want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress by a 15-point margin, 52% to 37%. That gap matches the record for the question in Journal/NBC polls, set earlier in October.

"Iraq sits in the middle of this election," says Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who helps conduct the Journal/NBC survey. While Republicans may welcome voters' improving attitudes toward the economy, adds Democratic counterpart Peter Hart, "they're getting swamped on the issue of Iraq."

In fact, the poll demonstrates how attitudes on Iraq in effect translate into voters' ballot choices. A 54% majority of the electorate now says removing Saddam Hussein from power wasn't worth the human and financial costs -- the highest percentage in the Journal/NBC poll since the war began in March 2003. Among those voters, fully eight in 10 want Democrats to control Congress after the elections.

But among the 37% who say the war has been worthwhile, seven in 10 want Republicans in charge on Capitol Hill. Among all voters, 61% say they feel "less confident" the war will end successfully, while just 27% feel "more confident" about the outcome.

Cook's numbers and analysis were presented earlier. The generic polling numbers support the thesis that little has changed. And according to the poll, if you think the Iraq war was not worth it (and that's 54% of the public), you will want Democrats to control Congress over Republicans by 82-10.

That's a lot of votes.

[BurtWorm]

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