NYT: Foley's FL district declared "toss-up"

[Herman Munster]

Guess republican voters have no problems voting for a pedophile, huh?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/02/us/02foley.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

“I know this district, and we are not going to allow ourselves to be defined by the disgraceful actions of our former congressman,” Mr. Negron said in an interview Wednesday. “I feel this tremendous momentum and energy among Republicans and conservative Democrats to keep this district in the Republican column.”

The numbers are on his side: 42 percent of voters here in the 16th Congressional District, which spans the state from Palm Beach to Charlotte County, are Republicans, and 36 percent Democrats. President Bush won here comfortably in 2000 and 2004, and most of the district (its boundaries were redrawn in 2002) has not sent a Democrat to Congress since the 1970’s.

Nationally, the chief political benefit of the Foley furor to Democrats was that it knocked Republicans off their tax and terrorism message in the crucial weeks after Congress adjourned at the end of September. It also ensnared several leading Republicans associated with Mr. Foley, while limiting Speaker J. Dennis Hastert’s political drawing power.

But in a reflection of the race in Mr. Foley’s own district, his lewd e-mail messages to House pages seem to have had little lasting effect on Congressional races around the country. One Democratic strategist said the party had never expected more than a few races to be influenced significantly by Mr. Foley’s conduct.

[Zynx]

1. Most races are never much beyond a toss-up.

I say we win here by 7-8%.

[bluestateguy]

2. If you vote for Negron, you have to vote for Foley. A pedophile.

[newsguyatl]

3. it's florida after all... i don't expect intelligence

from most of its voters.

[Lasher]

4. Mahoney will win this race by 3% to 7%

From the NYT article:

A poll conducted in mid-October for The South Florida Sun-Sentinel showed Mr. Mahoney leading Mr. Negron by 48 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided. But this week two nonpartisan Congressional handicappers, Stuart Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, changed their assessments of the race from "leans Democrat" to "tossup."

What? You mean, that's it? Two people decide the race is a tossup, citing no new polls or any other development and the NYT is practically giving this race to Negron? Just to clarify, the "poll conducted in mid-October for The South Florida Sun-Sentinel" was done by Research 2000. How about the other poll conducted last month, which was done by RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics (Majority Watch)? Like the Research 2000 poll, it gave Mahoney a 7% advantage, which is outside the margin of error. Real Clear Politics, CQ Politics.com, and Election Predictions, all show this race as either leans Democratic or very weak Democratic gain. Why no mention of that?

This speculation seems to be based on a ruling last week by the First District Court of Appeals, which allowed the GOP to put up signs in polling places to advise that a vote for Foley is actually a vote for Negron, if they also say that a vote for the Democrat Mahoney is a vote for Mahoney. The RT Strategies/Consituent Dynamics poll indicated that if this were explained to likely voters, Mahoney's advantage narrowed from 7% to 3%. This will reduce, but not eliminate, the confusion caused by having Foley's name instead of Negron's on the balot.

Not a reflection on you, Herman, but I'm accustomed to seeing NYT writers do a better job.

[tkmorris]

5. I doubt it

The polls still favor Mahoney by 7-10 points and you HAVE to believe that Foley's name being on the ballot, coupled with the absence of Negron's name will result in at least another 5% difference favoring Mahoney. It's hard to say of course how large the confusion effect will be, but there is certain to be some.

I say Mahoney will win with ease.

Oh, and an aside to newsguyatl. The crack about Florida voters not being very smart? Cute. Insulting and rude, but cute. This state is not that red. I can pick out 15 states easily that vote more red than we do. Save the wisecracks, OK shipmate?