Filibuster Math

[Freddie Stubbs]

As of 8:30 AM Friday, the nimbers on the filibuster are as close as it gets:

41 Senators are needed for a filibuster.

There are 45 Democrats and Independents in the Senate.

Three Democrats have already said that they would support confirmation (Byrd, Johnson, and Ben Nelson).

Another Democrat (Mary Landreau) has stated that she would not support a filibuster.

That means if one more Democrat comes out to support of confirmation (or in opposition of the filibuster) the cloture vote on Monday will pass.

That's how close it is.

[mmonk]

1. Everybody needs to put pressure on

because DLC pundits are putting pressure on them as well. As far as filibuster math goes, I'm looking at my wallet right now as democratic fund raisers keep calling me (yes, that's a threat).

[madaboutharry]

2. I thought you meant "Filibuster Math"

My kid in Algebra would go along with that!

[GreenPartyVoter]

3. I think I am gonna be sick. I can't believe it's this close!

-------------------------------------------
http://www.hostdiva.com/liberalchristians/">Would Jesus love a liberal? You bet!

[AzDar]

4. Looks like we need to change some minds! Landrieu and Akaka

need some persuadin'...Byrd has me completely BAFFLED. After watching 3/4 of his speech on the floor yesterday, I thought he's certainly voting "no". When he finished up with "and that's why I'll be voting FOR Alito..", I was stunned. The Bushies MUST have pictures of him in a compromising postion; that's the ONLY explanation...

[libertad]

7. I think I just heard on the radio that Byrd is going to support it!

n
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[Cessna Invesco Palin]

13. Byrd is supporting Alito.

He's going to vote for Alito.

[Skinner]

5. Any idea how many Senators haven't said their intentions on filibuster?

Is there an up-to-date vote count somewhere?

That leaves 41 Dems. How many of them have already stated that they will support a filibuster? Who is left who hasn't said how they will vote on Cloture? Anyone know?

[benburch]

8. Skinner, we need to target those who vote for cloture.

They need to be replaced in the next primary they stand for no matter how "important" a Senator they are.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

14. I can't find it anywhere.

And there are too many conflicting reports to reconcile the numbers properly. However, I would suggest that the Senators who came out in favor of a filibuster today did so because it became apparent that there wasn't going to be one. I know this sounds cynical, but it's the only thing that makes sense to me.

[LizW]

19. I think you're right about that.

I'm devastated to say it, but I think it's over and all that is happening now is the adjustment of positions to limit the political damage. Everyone's looking at the numbers of calls they have gotten and deciding which way to go for political cover, but the filibuster is dead already.

I have nine supporters of the filibuster: Clinton, Boxer, Durbin, Stabenow, Wyden, Kennedy, Sarbanes, Kerry, and Lieberman.

It is interesting how the DLC is splitting up on this. I don't know what it means, but we have Clinton and Lieberman supporting the filibuster and Nelson, Landrieu, Salazar, and perhaps Obama against. I'm watching to see what Bayh and Carper do.

Re-edited cause I messed up.

[bigtree]

20. I think this is a process that kicked off with the declaration by Kerry

followed by Kennedy and others. There will be a good deal of arm twisting and politicking over the weekend. This represents a real, although uphill, battle for the hearts and minds of our legislators. We've got to continue to show them how strongly we feel about our opposition to Alito and pull the wavering and the wannabees back into our fold.

The counts now are a snapshot, the real test of our advocacy and our party's responsiveness to it will come next week.

[flpoljunkie]

6. Russert said it was a done deal on the Today Show and that only 35

Senators would vote against cloture. How he knows this, he did not say.

Dick Durbin, Dem party whip, said yesterday at the National Press Club that he has counted and that it was highly unlikely they would have enough votes, but has indicated they are not yet giving up.

Neither should we because it is the right thing to do. Go down fighting!

[karynnj]

11. That's closer than some of the condesending stories

(like the NYT) would suggest. Finding 6 more may not be doable - but it's close enough that it shows the majority of Democrats reject the unitary President and shift from people's needs to the corporations needs.

[adigal]

9. Biden said he will vote for cloture

and I am betting Harry Reid will also.

[cali]

10. Salazar

has gone on record as saying he'll vote for cloture, same for Akaka and now Biden.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

12. Reid isn't supporting a filibuster.

http://www.npr.org/

It's on the "Hourly News" link.

[CabalPowered]

15. Another article here.. Shame on Harry

http://www.krnv.com/Global/story.asp?S=4419444&nav=8faO

[Snivi Yllom]

16. Akaka is not filibustering, probably not Feinstein

http://www.kpua.net/news.php?id=7353

Akaka won't back Alito filibuster

By Associated Press

HONOLULU (AP) _ Hawaii Senator Daniel Akaka says he opposes blocking a vote on Samuel Alito's nomination to serve on the U-S Supreme Court.

Akaka said today he wouldn't support a filibuster because the Senate has heard Alito's positions in confirmation hearings.

Akaka says he would vote against confirming Alito to the court because he has concerns about whether Alito would uphold anti-discrimination laws allowed under the Constitution.

[smartvoter]

17. Didn't I read last night that Salazar is not going to filibuster? nt

[smartvoter]

18. This article says Biden, Akaka and Dorgan will not support it.

A Democratic senator who plans to vote against Alito’s confirmation, Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, said Friday that prospects for a successful filibuster were dim and he doesn’t support the idea.

“A filibuster, I think, is not likely to occur,” Biden told CBS’ “The Early Show.” “But who knows, one man can generate a filibuster.”

Sens. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota made it clear Thursday night after a second day of floor debate on Alito that they would not support a filibuster, even though Akaka was going to vote against the nominee and Dorgan was still undecided.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11058352/

[Beetwasher]

21. Your On The WRONG Side of the Equation, The Number You Need is 60!!!

The Dems don't need 41 votes agaisnt cloture. The Repubs need 60 votes FOR CLOTURE.

Has any Dem who has come out and said they won't support the filibuster also indicated the WILL vote FOR cloture??? That's the important thing.

[Freddie Stubbs]

22. Voting for cloture is the same thing opposing a filibuster

Cloture ends debate. Voting against ending debate is a filibuster.

[Beetwasher]

24. Read What Is ACTUALLY Being Said, You May Be Wrong

What's being said is that they won't support the filibuster, which could technically mean they won't vote AGAINST cloture. That doesn't automatically mean they WILL vote FOR cloture. They can still abstain from the vote and claim they didn't support the filibuster.

[flpoljunkie]

26. Abstaining, rather than voting FOR cloture. Is this a real possibility?

Do you have any information that any Senators are actually considering this move? Abstaining?

Is this a workable scenario to deny the Republicans the 60 votes they need to invoke cloture and move to an "up or down" vote on Tuesday? The cloture vote is set for 4:30PM on Monday, the 30th.

[Beetwasher]

27. My Only Clue Is They Haven't Said They WILL Vote FOR Cloture

They've only said they won't support a filibuster.

Supporting the filibuster=actively voting against cloture. Not supporting it means NOT actively voting against cloture, but it doesn't necessarily mean voting FOR cloture. Abstention is always an option on ANY vote.

[Ken065]

23. Good point!

Senators can vote "present". Then they don't give the repubs the "ayes" they need for cloture.

[johnaries]

25. Can we ask them to simply abstain from the cloture vote?

Even if they don't support the Filibuster doesn't mean they can't just step aside. Let's just ask them to abstain.