It all comes down to Virginia, Missouri, and Tennessee for Senate, predictions?

[Herman Munster]

We need 7 seats.

We are going to win Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Rhode Island.

It will all come down to Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee.

What do you think will happen?

[eallen]

1. I think Webb has a chance in Virginia. But those three are hard states.

[WI_DEM]

23. most polls, including GOP internals have Webb leading

[BootinUp]

2. MT,PA,OH,MD,RI,VA

I see us winning six.

I think MO and TN will go the other way.

[lastknowngood]

6. I'm in Md and I don't like the looks around here Cardin ignored the

black community too much. When will the dems learn you win elections by enegerizing and keeping you base, not by trying to be repug lite. The repugs always play to their base and they always come out to vote. I wish the dems would learn that.

[Zynx]

11. Elections are won in the center, not with base politics.

Base political theory only works in select circumstances.

[sampsonblk]

41. GOP has been using base politics for over a decade

Won for them virtually every time.

[Zynx]

43. They won in 1994 and 2002 with heavy support in the center.

Independents voted 56% for Republicans in 1994. That's not base politics.

[sampsonblk]

44. Huge Misinterpretation, IMHO

Republicans play base politics instead of playing to the center. Turns out, centrist voters prefer that, as evidenced by the numbers you cite.

Its about standing for something that you really believe in and sticking with it, and trying to convince voters you're right. As opposed to picking which positions poll better (in April) and hoping the voters maintain those views on election day. That doesn't seem to be working very well for us.

Winning the center doesn't mean you played to the center at all.

[Zynx]

49. My point is that when you've pissed off the center like the Dems in 1994

or the Republicans in 1964, it doesn't matter how solid your base is. If Republicans came out declaring this a Christian Republic and ran on a campaign of outlawing sodomy and birth control pills like their base really wants, they would get 30% of the vote.

[WI_DEM]

22. I agree, Maryland is our wildcard if we don't get the traditional

African-American vote to turn out for Cardin in sufficient numbers, Steele could win.

[Herman Munster]

7. that won't be enough

We need to hold MD and NJ, win the 4 seats I mentioned, and win 2 of Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee.

I think our best chances are in Virginia and Missouri. Tennessee is looking very bad. Lots and lots of racists in Tennessee will do what they can not to elect a black man.

[BootinUp]

16. Well, we'll still have some joementum, cough.

So 5 + Joe gives us control.

[SoCalDem]

3. I am afraid we will get 5

:scared:

It fits with the "oh..so close..better luck next time" scenario that the media loves so much..

[cadmium]

4. I would be a jinx so I will defer. nt

[Birthmark]

5. Dems win VA; Repubs win TN

MO...no firm prediction. I *think* it's trending Dem...but...MO sucks. No offense to Missourians. :D

[orpupilofnature57]

8. The Media better do their jobs in those states, as a way to make up for

Florida and Ohio.

[sandnsea]

9. If we don't get one of them

We need to go back to the drawing board. I don't understand how this election is that close to begin with, or how every election is that close. It's not logical to me that the entire country is split right down the middle. I just don't believe it's possible that 50% of this country are willing to give Bush a rubberstamp when 70% say we're off track and need to make a change in Iraq.

[Herman Munster]

12. it isn't split down the middle

the seats are gerrymandered big time in the house. What they do is put all the black people in their own districts as a way of electing minorities. The problem with that is when you make these 90% minority districts that are 90% democrat you have much less democrats in the other districts. So you get a few 90% democrat districts so the democrats are assured a token amount of represenation and all the other districts are carved to be 55-60% republican.

the senate also isn't "democratic" in representing the people. The small rural states get more represenation in the senate than their population should warrant and they lean republican.

[KittyWampus]

13. you said the magic word "gerrymander". And when we win governerships this week

it'll help.

[sandnsea]

20. Many rural states are split too

AZ, MT, TN, VA. There's a Congressional race in WY that's 50/50. All these races are closer than what the facts of what people believe about the country would indicate.

[BootinUp]

26. Also, the red states represent far fewer

constituents.

[SoCalDem]

14. Because the media is "driving the bus"

they HAVE to make it "exciting" or they don;t get ratings.

Would people tune in to see that the races were runaways? nope..

Everything in the US simply MUST be exciting and "oooh so close"..

When the poll all showed double digit differences, lots of us predicted that this would happen.

It "covers' for "fixing", and it helps people accept losses that should never have occured..

[sandnsea]

18. Two billion dollars of campaign ads

Don't you suppose that has something to do with these horse races?? I think a huge investigation is in order, into these polling companies and ad companies. This just isn't right and it's outside the point of any election fixing I think.

[SoCalDem]

27. Of course it does... Who would run all those ads if they were

ahead by 15 points?

That's why we simply HAVE to have public financing and FREE airtime for candidates.

there;s NO reason on earth why we cannot have a speacial channel totally devoted to political campaigns.. a channel where ALL candidates have equal time to actually explain their stances on all issues... where there are weekly town hall meetings.. REAL ones with free admission..no "packing" the audience with plants.

It would eliminate to need for all the payola cash..

that;s why it will never happen :(

[sandnsea]

28. Not to be stupid here

But isn't that part of what CSpan is supposed to do? There's 3 channels there. I hear what you're saying, but what would be the difference?

I think we should ban all political tv advertising along with public financing, strict caps on spending, and limited campaign seasons. I'm sick of this garbage.

[SoCalDem]

30. Nope.. C-span has a contractual obligation to "cover"

gavel to gavel

cspan1 house
cspan2 senate

because they rarely ever WORK anymore, cspan has time to show other stuff, but when they house and senate are in session, they HAVE to cover them

Most cable companies don't even offer cspan3

a political channel on REGULAR tv is what's needed

[sandnsea]

31. Regular tv?

Okay, so how would that work? These are curiosity questions, not argmentative.

[SoCalDem]

32. CBS,NBC,ABC all have licenses. The govt could just

announce that there's a new license being created.. and a new channel..

[sandnsea]

33. Kind of like PBS

only restricted to state politics. Is that what you mean? I suppose that could work. I imagine with the internet though, there will be interactive townhalls and what not before too long.

[SoCalDem]

36. exactly what I mean

:)

[Grebrook]

10. We win Missouri, undecideds will turn against Talent, and we win Virginia, we lose Tennessee

[Bobbie Jo]

46. Agree.....

[TheWraith]

15. I'd say two out of three.

I think that VA is a win, and we'll win either MO or TN. Toss-up which, but I would lean on TN being the one we win.

[AlamoDemoc]

17. My thinking is that we will win VA, and MO, and loose TN

But of course, I am not pollster.

[jarab]

19. MO outright win; TN a loss; VA fought in the courts. eom

...O...

[WI_DEM]

21. not necessarily, I think Maryland and/or NJ for Dems could also

be close, and if we lose one or both of them then the Senate is a goner. I think I'm most worried about Maryland right now.

[wellstone dem]

24. Why are people so confident of MT, I'm scared, that race has tightened

though I did my part in nagging my daughter nearly to death, til she voted on Friday. She said, "Thanks for nagging me, I wanted to vote, but kept thinking I was too busy."

[BootinUp]

25. There is 6% undecided in the last poll

They should break for the change candidate.

[sandnsea]

29. Early returns

58% Dem returns to 37% Rep returns. Tester has been ahead in almost every poll and still is, he broke 51% the other day. Stealing an election there would be pretty difficult because it's too small for peculiar machine vote shifting, there aren't precincts that strongly lean one way or the other which would defeat the purpose of machine shorting, they know each other when people show up to vote, etc. That one looks really really good to me.

[Ksec]

34. I think we end up one short

I hope we dont but I have a feeling we end up one short .

[AnnInLa]

35. I would give my left nut

to see Allen,in particular, GO DOWN. Then I would spit on him. That man is evil.

Y'all know that it happened again to Mike Stark at another Allen rally? If not, he has a diary at kos.

[Clinton Crusader]

37. Going out on a very tenuous limb..

Montana - win
Pennsylvania - win
Ohio - win
Rhode Island - win
Missouri - win
Virginia - win
Tennessee - lose

:shrug:

[Individualist]

38. win VA, lose TN, MO could go either way

[tyedyeto]

39. Don't count out AZ as yet

Pederson has been behind in the polls but has been making some steady gains recently.

Hopefully the Big Dawg's appearances this week have helped his campaign even more.

[bermudat]

40. I had a job interview in Tennessee.

No f*cking way would that state send any black person to the Senate, even one as conservative as Harold Ford.

[mdmc]

42. L,L,L

but I do hope we win one (perhaps VI?)

[sampsonblk]

45. Ford will lose, all others win

IMHO, independents are going to break our way - much more so than the pundits think. But Harold Ford is cooked. He may only lose by a hair. But I don't think there's any way, barring some kind of bombshell, that he can pull this one out.

[Major Hogwash]

47. USA Today said that Ford was ahead by 5 points.

But, I don't know if their polls are very accurate or not.

[WinkyDink]

48. Treason, illegal invasion, "military commissions", Medicare mess,

pledge to privatize SS, deficit----WHAT MORE DO PEOPLE NEED to vote DEMOCRATIC??