2004 Senate retirments and narrow defeats contribute to Alito probability

[WI_DEM]

2004 was a pivotal election in many ways--including the US Senate. Retirements in the South of four prominent Democratic Senators probably sealed the Alito fate:

John Edwards of NC
Bob Graham of FL.
Ernest Hollings of SC
John Breaux of LA

Edwards decided to run for president, as did Graham. Hollings and Breaux decided to retire.

Edwards and probably Graham would have voted against Alito. Hollings likely would have too. Breaux, probably would have supported him, imo. Still if those three men had run again and won--Graham certainly would have won an easy re-election (Betty Castor, who was the Dem nominee lost by only 1-point), Edwards might have had a competitive race, but probably would have pulled it out. Hollings was considered the most endangered but probably would have had a 50-50 chance.

Then there are the narrow losses:

While he was hardly anybody's favorite--Tom Daschle would have voted against Alito--as it is Dascle lost SD by 2-points, a state that Bush won by better than 30-points.

But put them together: Edwards, Graham, Hollings and Dashle--would have been four probable votes against Alito.

We can take it one step further and demonstate how important '02 was:

We all know that Paul Wellstone would be leading a filibuster against Alito--but tragically he was killed and his successor in the last week of the campaign, Fritz Mondale did his best, but still lost to Coleman by 2-points. Both Wellstone and Mondale would have been certain votes against Alito.

Jean Carnahan lost by only 1-point in Missouri. It can't be said for sure how she would have voted, but she was pro-choice and might have been an additional vote against Alito.

In Georgia, Max Cleland lost narrowly in a disgusting race which labeled that hero a coward, while Georgia is a very conservative state, Cleland might have exacted some revenge by voting "NO" on Alito.

These narrow losses and retirements have cost us dearly. We have a good shot at picking up GOP seats in the Senate in '06 and it will mean lots of hard work. But some of our retirements may hurt us again. In Maryland, where Sarbanes is retiring and NJ where Corzine became Gov and appointed Menendez--recent polls show the GOP candidates leading.

[Snivi Yllom]

1. elections matter

bottom line

[WI_DEM]

2. Exactly

[AIJ Alom]

3. Rest assured I will be busting my butt for Menendez here in NJ.

You can count on me WI_DEM. I will not only rally the base here in Passaic County, but also rile up the support in Bergen, Essex, and Morris. NJ will remain a "smurfy" blue.

Thanks for your enlightening post.

To all others that are reading this. Vote and get your friends to vote regardless of what or what not has been done in your name. Otherwise be content with one party rule for years to come.