summary of sabato's crystal ball: democrats doing very well!

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among the electoral forecasters i check in with is sabato's crystal ball. larry sabato is a professor at the university of virginia, and i've always found is numbers to be biased to the conservative side, though within the plausible range, i.e., not frothy republican numbers. i think his conservative bias has matched the voter suppression and theft efforts of the last few cycles. i therefore view his numbers as something of a 'reality check' after seeing a bunch of more starry-eyed democratic numbers.

this cycle, though, even sabato's numbers are impressive for the democrats:

in the house:

of the 90 races sabato considers to be 'in play', NINETY PERCENT of the races in play are current republican seats. only 9 seats currently held by democrats are in play! his 'brutal b' bottom line is a democratic pickup of 24 to 30 seats. if this is coming from a forecaster with a conservative bias, i think it's safe to say that democrats will win the house with room to spare!

note also that nearly all of his 'momentum' indicators point to the democratic side. in his latest update he goes with +27, giving dems a 25-seat majority. frustratingly, he is expecting a number of narrow losses, as the national democrats try to avoid spreading resources too thin. this ensures control of the house, but limits the margin of victory.

in the senate:

of the 33 seats up for grabs, only 8 are leaning (or stronger) republican vs. 21 leaning (or stronger) democratic with 4 toss-ups. his 'brutal b' has democrats picking up 5 or 6 seats. in his latest update, he sticks his neck out and goes with 6 seats, just the number to give democrats control (assuming lieberman actually does caucus with the democrats).

he's also predicting a pick-up of 6-8 governorships. his final number is +7.



if these numbers are coming from a conservative prognosticator, i feel pretty darn good about this election.

nevertheless, i'll be damn sure to vote for menendez (d-nj) on tuesday!

[The Magistrate]

1. Indeed, Sir

Sabado revealed himself an irredeemable reptile during the coup attenpt against President Clinton, but he is good at the work of analysis....

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2. his latest commentary tosses in a gratuitous swipe at kerry

for making his "brilliant remark, john, absolutely brilliant, proving why you lost in '04 and why you're not going to be the democratic nominee again in '08". no, that's not a biases charaterization of a subtle misspeaking -- something shrub gets away with in spades....

:sarcasm: