Just thinking out loud...

[LiberalAndProud]

When would you announce that you held enough votes for a fillibuster?

I don't think WE will know for sure until all the votes have been counted.

[Freddie Stubbs]

1. Unless there are going to be several surprises from the Republicans,

which isn't very likely, there are too may Democrats on the record as supporting Alito or opposing the filibuster.

[Cats Against Frist]

2. There are too many variables

Even if a senator, technically, doesn't "support" a filibuster, it doesn't mean that he or she has to vote for cloture -- either for or against. Notwithstanding the fact that all it would take to make the rule change fail would be six GOP senators to vote against it, which is totally possible -- particularly since there is a VERY GOOD ANGLE that the Dems can use, in the media, to portray their rule change as a massive power grab. Too, if blue state Republicans vote for the rule change, they will be beholden to their constituency -- which could put us in a better position for the fall. Also, a rule change could benefit Democrats in the future.

I may be going out on a limb, but I think the "nuclear option" is not as easy for the GOP as they seem to be letting on. We could put the burden on them to make the really extreme change. In fact, the "bold move" is really in their court, not ours -- as for now, the filibuster is a legitimate, rule-abiding exercise. I think they're bluffing.

Just thinking out loud, too...:)