Grenberg & Teixeira: Interesting notes on Swing Voters

[troublemaker]

From Donkey Rising Nov. 5

Ron Brownstein gets the nod for best Sunday pre-election wrap-up in the major rags with a pair of L.A. Times articles "Voters in center may get their say" and "Democrats straining for knockout punch." In the first piece Brownstein explores the theme that Democrats are pulling ahead because they more aggressively fought for swing voters in the political center, while the GOP has been preoccupied with shoring up its base.

Perhaps the nut quote comes from former NRCC Chairman Thomas Davis III (R-VA): "...the message is going to be that swing voters still count, and sometimes the more you cater to your base, the more you turn off swing voters."

Some Democratic poll analysts think this could be an understatement. "I think their whole model is going to lay shattered in pieces," says Democratic strategist Stan Greenberg.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/001574.php

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-midterm5nov05,1,3040160.story?coll=la-headlines-politics

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-outlook5nov05,1,7880649.column?coll=la-utilities-politics

[bluestateguy]

1. "The Emerging Democratic Majority"

The authors of this book predicted that we would begin to see some of the electoral trends materialize around 2006-08 that they hypothesized on.

[troublemaker]

2. Without flukes like Florida 2000 and 9/11 the values crowd would be marginalized already

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

4. Don't confuse to very different groups...

Values Voters (a never-entirely-defined-group) tend to be part of the Republican Base. "Values" is a code word for anti-abortion, gay-bashing, rapture-awaiting conservatives.

Swing voters are typically not part of that group. Swing voters are pissesd off at the war in Iraq -- they think it was Bush & Co. thinking they could get a cheap victory, and paying for their mistake with other peoples' lives. They're pissed off in general because their wages are stagnating and the cost of paying for their kids' tuition is through the roof. Those who are lucky enough to have health insurance are seeing the costs chewing up what meager raise they got last year.

The Republicans used the "culture wars" and low-tax snake oil economics to gain a temporary advantage among this group. But in places like Ohio, where Republicans have been in control for nearly two decades, their is a tidal wave of rejection coming. Swing voters are starting to wake up to the fact that conservative policies pick their pocket and violate their freedom.

If the coming Democratic majority (a great title for a book, BTW) concentrates on creating an end-game for Iraq, cleaning up a thoroughly-corrupt Congress, and "paycheck economic issues" that bedevil the middle class, they can start picking out the drapes for the White House in 2008.

[CTyankee]

3. I totally believe this and have been preaching it

Bush's base is around 30%. Since things have gotten SO BAD under his administration, Dems can literally pick the low hanging fruit: i.e. the swing voter who is disgusted and unhappy with his life, his wages, his health care and it goes on and on. Add in the scandals of corruption and the fundies with their sex scandals and you've got a "perfect storm." Add in the passion of the Dem base, smelling success big time, and you have a good recipe for success, IMHO.

Let's hope I'm right!