http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/009154.phpTo that end, the last CNN poll using their likely voter model shows the Democrats still with a large 20-point advantage over the GOP, an increase from last month. As a comparison, even Gallup’s final poll of likely voters, after factoring in the GOP advantages, gives Democrats a 7-point advantage in the generic ballot tomorrow, and that was from using a sample made up of 35% Republicans, 37% Democrats, and 27% independents. Gallup is now actually predicting a 35-seat pickup in the House as the most likely number tomorrow for the Democrats.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=25363Gallup has modeled the number of seats a party will control based on that party's share of the national two-party vote for the House of Representatives using historical voting data in midterm elections from 1946 to 2002. The model takes into account structural factors such as the party of the president and the majority party in Congress entering the elections. The results suggest that a party needs at least a two percentage-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. Based on this historical analysis, the Democrats' seven-point margin suggests they will win a large enough share of the national vote to have a majority of the seats in the next Congress.
More specifically, taking the final survey's margin of error into account, the model predicts that the Democrats could gain anywhere from 11 seats on the low end to 58 seats on the high end -- with 35 seats being the most likely number. Given that Democrats need to gain just 15 seats to wrest control from Republicans, a Democratic takeover appears likely.
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