Anybody up for predictions on US House & Senate?

[NewJeffCT]

While I'm normally a big-time pessimist, I am predicting we gain seats in both the House & Senate.

We can check back tomorrow to see who did the best.

10 seat gain in House.
3 seat gain in the Senate. (OH, PA, RI)

I'm hoping for at least 1 more senate seat from MO, TN, VA and MT, though.

[Cooley Hurd]

1. 30 House seats, 6 Senate seats...

:thumbsup:

[NewJeffCT]

37. You could be the eventual winner

If some of the close House races pan out for the good guys.

[Birthmark]

2. 23 House seats, 5 Senate seats

[cali]

3. Hi Jeff,

Good luck ousting Shays, Simmons and Johnson today. I know all my family in CT- and that's about thirty people will be doing their part voting against Shays.

I think we'll do far better in the House than you do. My prediction is +27 for dems. In the Senate, I think we pick up 4. I certainly hope you're wrong and I'm right. A gain of 10 seats in the House would be a blow not a victory.

[NewJeffCT]

5. My guess

is that one of the three loses, with Johnson being the most likely to lose. I get the impression that her outrageously over-the-top negative campaign turned a lot of people off to her.

If Shays loses to Farrell, I think it would be a great sign nationally, and I would then predict a good 20 seat pick-up in the House.

A month ago, I thought Simmons was the most likely to lose, but he is the only one of the 3 that has not fumbled down the stretch. (Shays had those bizarro comments on Abu Graib not being torture and brought up Chappaquiddick before that...)

[cali]

39. OK, I hit it pretty close in the House and I'm delighted

that I was off on the Senate.

[mvd]

4. I think we'll take the House with 25 seats

I'll lower my expectations a bit and say 50-50 for the Senate. I have a good feeling about how McCaskill and Webb trended, but think we still might lose one of Rhode Island and Maryland.

I think the Democrats do well in the Philly suburbs, helping them to win the House.

[Sir Jeffrey]

6. My take

As a fellow pessimist, here are my predictions.

Senate:

R's win AZ outright. We barely lose TN and MO. We challenge TN and MO unsuccessfully because of irregularities, but they stay red.

D's win WA, MN, MI, OH, PA, MD, NJ, RI, MT, VA. VA and maybe MT are challenged by R's, but we barely win in both. We win surprising margins in OH and PA. Santorum throws a hissy fit when he loses because the margins are too big for him to challenge in court.

This result is 50 50. No power-sharing by the R's, but being a 50 seat minority combined with owning the HR may be preferable. We can basically stonewall everything and blame it on the Senate.

HR:

Waaayy too many to predict case by case. Basically, I went through the numbers late last night and I see us ending up with 227 to 208. You will probably see some individual challenges by both parties, but the R's will realize they have a bloodbath on their hands and challenging a few seats here and there won't matter.

Gov:

The ultimate margin will be 30 D's to 20 R's.

[Sir Jeffrey]

7. Dupe

[Binka]

8. 35 House 6 Senate

8 Governorships.

[cyclezealot]

9. My prediction

with districts gerrymandered and vote tampering. House= 12-15 seats, Senate 3-4. It might sound nuts, with the Bush mafia turning the US into a banana republic. But, it might not be all bad. Anyone hear BUchanan/Scarbarough say yesterday, " McCain would rather run against a Democratic Congress, rather than a Republican Congress. Makes sense. Think about it.
Nothing good is going to come about these next two years. Trade deficits, Chinese financing of our debt, job losses, and most of all, the mayhem in Iraq.
As long as Democrats gain enough to stymie the worst of BUsh's fascist rule, in coalition with the handful of sane Repukes in both houses, it might be what really sickens the country of Repuke rule.
I don't think about 40% of the country have been convinced of how revolting Repuke rule is . Since the Democrats can't really pass progressive legislation is ruling the Congress worth. Should Lincoln Chafee go down, it will scare the bejusus out of Maine's two repuke senators. Close to control might be a good option. So if we don't quite make it, it might put us in a better position two years from now. We have substantial control of the House, McCain will say the Dem's lost Iraq for the US. This way, they are the bad guys.

[NewJeffCT]

11. Your reasons are partly why I was fairly conservative

in my predictions as well.

One good thing is that NY & Mass seemingly are headed to having Democratic governors for the first time in a long time!

[cyclezealot]

14. I know the down side.

If we don't have a comfortable rule of the House, we won't have supobena power to reveal Bush's corruptions and cronysim.

[malaise]

10. Yep

34 House
7 Senate.

[NewJeffCT]

12. I wonder what would happen if we won both houses?

Would Bush veto a minimum wage hike if it was attached to funding the troops in Iraq?

Or, how about investing in alternate fuel research if it was tagged onto funding the War of Terror.

[malaise]

13. For starters I'll be drunk like a skunk

tonight and most of tomorrow and I rarely drink.:D

[malaise]

38. I still like my prediction

I suspect that they won't announce the Senate until after Bush speaks. Poor little Lord pissypants.

[warrens]

15. 28 House, 5 Senate (JUST missing)

[LanternWaste]

16. D's pick up 4 seat gain in the Senate and a 23 seat gain in the House

D's pick up 4 seat gain in the Senate (minority) and a 23 seat gain in the House (majority).

Getting a majority in one chamber is good enough for me at this point.

[JCMach1]

17. 38 House Seats and 8 Senate Seats

Usually the pessimist, I will try a different tack this time.

[Perky]

18. 41 seats in the House.

based on the following breakdown of these GOP seats

Likely GOP 10 (we win 1)
CO-6 MN-2 MI-7 IN-3 OH-12 FL-8 FL-9 WV-2 NY-3 NH-1

Lean GOP 12 (we win 2)
WA-5 CA-4 CA-50 NV-3 CO-5 TX-23 IL-10 KY-2 NC-8 VA-10 NJ-7 NY-29

Tossup/Tilt GOP 19 (we will win 10 out of 19)
WA-8 NV-3 AZ-1 WY-0 CO-4 KS-2 NE-3 MN-1 MN-6 WI-8 KY-3 OH-1
OH-4 VA-2 PA-4 PA-8 NY-19 NY-25 NY-26

Tossup/Tilt DEM 17 (we will win 15 of 17)
CA-11 ID-1 AZ-5 NM-1 TX-22 IL-6 KY-4 IN-9 OH-2 OH-15 FL-16 FL-22
NH-2 NY-20 CT-2 CT-4 CT-5

Lean DEM 10 (we win all 10)
IA-1 IA-2 IN-2 OH-18 FL-13 PA-6 PA-7 PA-10 NC-11 NY-24

Likely Dem 3 (we win all three)
AZ-8 CO-7 IN-8

[NewJeffCT]

19. I like that breakdown

I would love to have an all blue House delegation here in CT.

[BurtWorm]

20. What's going to happen in CT?

Do you have a sense of how well Lamont is doing?

[NewJeffCT]

21. I think it will definitely be closer than the polls

If that is enough to get Lamont over the top, I have no idea.

Connecticut still has most of the state on the old-style lever machines, and Lieberman's ballot position on there is genuinely ugly. He is on the 7th row, in the 4th column, with the 2nd & 3rd columns being blank. (Lamont is on the 2nd row, 4th column) In addition to that, on the lower half of the ballot, the levers tend to cover up part of the boxes, so the Joe Liebermanname is partially obscured. It is difficult to find.

We have 3 House races that are genuine toss-ups that feature 3 Republic incumbents. Even with my pessimistic leanings, I find it hard to believe we don't pick up at least 1 of the 3 seats. In 2004, we had 2 close races won by Republics, but the Republics were ahead in the polls all along, although the polls showed close races. I think the only Republic who was not threatened in 2004 is actually the most vulnerable this time around - Nancy Johnson. Her campaign was so dirty & so nasty that I think she turned a lot of people off to her, and certainly hurt her image as a kindly grandmotherly type. (She had the robo-calls against her opponent, Chris Murphy, and ran a television commercial that showed Murphy, then cut to a rear view of an actor that looked like Murphy giving a warm greeting to a drug dealer)

[BurtWorm]

27. I'm so sick of Nancy Johnson.

She first got elected when I was living there, I think, in the late 1970s or early 1980s. I was sick of her then.

[NewJeffCT]

29. If I could choose only 1 in CT to lose

It would be Nancy Johnson.

[guardian]

22. Hard to predict between the idiot sheeple and

rethugs stealing votes.

[LondonReign2]

23. 22 House, 5 Senate

And I hope I'm WAY too pessimistic with these predictions

[BamaLefty]

24. Election Projections

Senate:

Split at 50-50. I think Dems pick up seats in MT, OH, PA, and RI. The polls currently have both Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and Harold Ford (D-TN) winning by razor thin margins in their respective states. I think that Dems will split those two both currently GOP held seats. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on McCaskill winning by a point or so and Ford losing by the same margin. Lieberman will win in CT as an Independent, but is still essentially a Democrat and will still caucus with the party. That would put the Senate at a 50-50 tie with Cheney casting the deciding vote. Projection: Dems +4

House:

This is what I'm really surprised by. In years past, the political leanings of the state/district have had a significant impact on how the people voted. The Democratic tide appears to be so strong that Dems are winning in solidly red states against once popular incumbents. Former Vol QB Heath Shuler is up in rural NC, for example. However, I think enough Republican incumbents will eek out narrow victories thanks to name recognition and the rest of the advantages that go along with being an incumbent. If Dems are to recapture the House, it will have to start in New York. In that state alone, they're on pace to switch 5 seats from red to blue. Projection: Dems 228; Repubs 207

Governorships:

Democrats will defeat Republican incumbents as well as pick up seats from retiring Republicans all the way from Arkansas to New England. Bebee will win by 8-10%, Deval Patrick will become the first Democratic governor of Massachusetts since Michael Dukakis, New York AG Elliot Spitzer may hit as high as 70%, and Ohio Dem Ken Strickland will also become the first Dem to win a statewide race in Ohio since 1996... to highlight their victories. I predict Republicans to "steal" a victory by winning a close race in the most liberal state in the nation, Rhode Island. Incumbent Dems are struggling in Oregon and Illinois, but will win when it's all said and done. Dems win tight races in traditionally blue Minnesota and Iowa. Prediction: Democrats 29-21

[NewJeffCT]

25. good analysis

Hopefully we can wiggle one more Senate seat.

[Sir Jeffrey]

31. I think we read the same polls...

because our predictions are very similar.

[bnr65432]

26. 17 house, 6 senate

[AllexxisF1]

28. ...

We gather the House and Senate. We win the Senate by 2, and here is my prediction, Hillary makes a deal with Reid to become Senate Majority leader and she will NOT run for President in 08.

Palosi and Clinton being house leaders. WOW.

[T Town Jake]

30. Gain of 24 House seats, six Senate seats is my prediction.

(n/t)

[NewJeffCT]

36. Damn good guess there!

I think you may be the closest so far, unless a few more of these House races pan out for the good guys.

[ThomWV]

32. 36/7

[Independent_Liberal]

33. I predict...

SENATE
Majority Party: Democrat (52 Seats)
Minority Party: Republican (47 Seats)
Other Party: Independent (1 Seat)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Majority Party: Democrat (242 Seats)
Minority Party: Republican (192 Seats)
Other Party: Independent Democrat (1 Seat) (I predict a Republican will re-register.)

GOVERNORSHIP
32 Democrat
18 Republican

[NewJeffCT]

34. I like that prediction

I hope you're right.

[last_texas_dem]

35. Here are mine

21 House seats (a net of 20 b/c I think the 'pugs will pick up 1), 5 Senate seats (though I think MO will be very close and will possibly go our way)

I think we also pick up 7 Governorships