Anyone remember 2004? Exit polls mean SHIT. Wait for the actual results.

[montana500]

That is all.

[chelsea0011]

1. Amen!!!!!!!!!!

[helderheid]

2. Exit polls aren't shit. They are EXACTLY what we need to be paying attention to.

If they steal it, those exit polls will be major evidence.

[KittyWampus]

30. this seems to be a refrain right now... almost a concerted effort

[abluelady]

32. You Are Absolutely Correct

There is no reason for people to be devious when answering exit polls. If you don't want to answer, you don't. The average voter could care less about being devious, imho. They are more right than not. They are wonderful evidence of corruption in voting. Don't believe the nonsense that exit polls are worthless.

[bobbolink]

48. You've forgotten 2004, already?

[abluelady]

80. The Polls Were Correct

The elections were skewed. And it is amazing how the US government takes the exit polls as gospel from other countries.

[montana500]

50. Paying attention to, not celebrating. Two different things.

Take note, and celebrate actual results.

[Iwasthere]

3. Do YOU remember...

... the experts that said the odds of the exit polls being as far off as they were was hundreds of millions to one !!!!!

[Igel]

12. If the assumptions were correct. n/t

[seabeyond]

4. this is what i am thinking, not to rain on anyones parade

but i am surprised how people are drawing conclusions at this point

[Mass]

5. Amen...

[HappyWeasel]

9. welll...they are trailing by 3 points in the majority of races....

and trailing by 5 in MT and RI and by 10 in PA and OH....lets see them do this!!!

[Mass]

20. 3 points in a poll is not that much. With MOE and all, I prefer to wait and see.

I agree that PA and OH seems OK and that there would be major questions if the GOP wins these two, but for the ones with 3 points (one direction or the other) nothing is won, which also means Ford has not yet lost.

[HappyWeasel]

10. welll...they are trailing by 3 points in the majority of races....

and trailing by 5 in MT and RI and by 10 in PA and OH....lets see them do this!!!

[kansasblue]

6. calm down... The exit polls are good news....

enjoy them!

[bobbolink]

78. When somebody demands that you "calm down", do you?

[JuniperLea]

7. Historically exit polls are exceedingly accurate

2000 and 2004 were the ONLY exceptions... get a clue...

[shadowknows69]

8. I'm trying to absorb as few of them as I can

DU is pretty much my only source tonight.

[uppityperson]

11. exactly. Wait for the results. Predictions are predictions.

exit polls can tell if election is majorly stolen, but it isn't over until the votes are counted.

[DoYouEverWonder]

13. The exit polls were right

but Rove and Bush stole the election. You can't exit poll that.

[Bad Santa]

14. The exit polls are right

Election integrity around the world is established via what? Exit Polls.

It's the election returns from Diebold machines that may not mean shit.

[readmoreoften]

19. Welcome Bad Santa! Great Name! /nt

[readmoreoften]

25. Exit polls mean EVERYTHING. They will only be off if there is massive vote fraud.

I am expecting minor vote fraud-- I think the (R)s are going to rig the Senate and let the house go. Just a guess.

[slackmaster]

60. Have you even considered the possibility that a poll can be done poorly?

Improper sampling procedures, faulty analysis, etc.?

When did God decree that anything called an "exit poll" would necessarily be reflective of actual voter intent?

[Bad Santa]

65. No. I didn't.

If they do accurate exit polls in the Ukraine AND EVERY OTHER NATION ON THE FACE OF THE EARTH, they do accurate exit polls here.

[slackmaster]

68. Every other nation on the face of the Earth, eh?

You have a lot of links to come up with. I'm not going to accept your say-so.

[Name removed]

75. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Bad Santa]

31. I'll decide if it's X-mas around here tonight.

:headbang:

[slackmaster]

24. Exit polls in the USA were not designed to gauge accuracy of the vote

They were and are created in order to generate content for the media. Accuracy is not their primary function.

At least in California, we check accuracy of results through random audits, and anyone can request a recall (subject to conditions specified in the law).

[Bad Santa]

36. BS. Either they are totally accurate or totally worthless

If they aren't accurate in one aspect, they aren't accurate in any respect.

[slackmaster]

47. Addressed in reply #43

Follow. The. Money.

[Mr_Spock]

15. Was thinking of starting a post like this myself!!

Thanks!

Oh, and right on!

Wait 'till they count the votes people!!!

[KittyWampus]

33. Yes, obedient citizens wait til their masters tell them who won the vote

[Mr_Spock]

34. Lots of cynical replies tonight

I guess the doubters are going to bash any of us who think we should believe in the election process.

Unless you think anarchy is better?

[WHEN CRABS ROAR]

37. They have a reason to feel this way.

[Mr_Spock]

42. Is this the appropriate time to drag someone down who believes otherwise?

If so, I will be simply ignoring the dragger-downers...

[Name removed]

39. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Mr_Spock]

44. If I believe in the elections, i work for Diebold?

Ridiculous

[cynatnite]

16. Optimistic...

but not putting all my eggs in the exit polling basket this time around.

[robertpaulsen]

17. ACTUAL RESULTS MEAN SHIT WHEN THEY DEVIATE FROM EXIT POLLS.

And that is NOT all. That is when we really have our work cut out.

[helderheid]

23. AMEN!

[readmoreoften]

27. Ramen. /nt

[DemBones DemBones]

29. AMEN TO THAT!!! nt

*

[H2O Man]

41. Good answer.

Thank you.

[Der Blaue Engel]

18. Other nations use them to gauge election fraud

We...well, we just believe whatever we're told, no matter how outrageous, about how "wrong" the exit polls were. If these numbers flip like the last two times, anyone who thinks the "official" results are accurate and exit polls were mysteriously wrong is a CHUMP.

[slackmaster]

28. In those other nations, they use exit polls designed to be accurate

Which is not true of polls in the USA.

[Bad Santa]

35. Horsefeathers.

Exit polls are either designed to be accurate, or they are worthless for any use whatsoever.

[slackmaster]

43. You can't get both accuracy and expediency at the same time

Doing an accurate exit poll requires sampling, at random, many precincts throughout the day in order to avoid artifacts of local demographics, what time of day Republicans vs. Democrats, etc. vote. That costs a lot of money and requires many people.

Media exit polls are designed to get some kind of Gee Whiz information out there to garner attention. The whole idea is to get SOMETHING that can be put out as a headline, BEFORE your competitors do. They are done for profit, not as a check on the integrity of the system. To think otherwise is very naive. If they happen to turn out to have been accurate, that's gravy to the media.

[Bad Santa]

51. BS. You either have accuracy, or have garbage

I did a form of media research polling for a living. Either the survey is accurate or it's skewed and you chuck it. It either accurately measures what is being asked, or it doesn't.

Either a survey is accurate... or it's crap. There is no middle ground on surveys.

[slackmaster]

56. OK, then they are pure crap

I'm glad we can finally agree on something.

[Bad Santa]

61. Why do exit polls work everywhere but the US?

Do you think the exit polls in Western Europe are designed to be any less timely? A lot of us watched Canadian election coverage fairly recently. The CBC exit polls were all compiled in a timely and accurate fashion.

Why do you still repeating this lie that the only place exit polls don't work is in the US?

[slackmaster]

63. They don't always work in the US

Even when everything is done perfectly (and there is no actual election fraud) polls will typically be wrong about 5% of the time.

The CBC exit polls were all compiled in a timely and accurate fashion.

Thank you for pointing out that we are comparing apples to oranges. The CBC is a crown corporation, owned by the Canadian government. Most US media outlets are owned by for-profit corporations.

Why do you still repeating this lie that the only place exit polls don't work is in the US?

How about showing where I said anything resembling that?

Do you think the exit polls in Western Europe are designed to be any less timely?

I don't know. How about you posting some information to show that they are done the same way there as here, by for-profit corporations?

[Bad Santa]

66. They always work in the US

The neo-cons lie and claim they don't, and you believe what the neo-cons tell you.

[slackmaster]

70. Uh-oh, argumentum ad hominem

...you believe what the neo-cons tell you.

So that makes me either stupid or part of the Conspiracy.

You're new here. Please read the posting rules again.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/forums/rules.html

[Bad Santa]

76. It means you talk to much about what you don't know.

I did music research surveys for CHR format radio stations. I was personally trained by the guy who did the survey research used to compile the music rotations for MTV and VH1, and keep them out in front of trends.

I know my field of expertise.

[progressivebydesign]

57. Our polls ARE and WERE accurate, until they started stealing elections. n/t

[slackmaster]

59. I wonder what you "stolen election" people are going to be saying tomorrow

When Democrats have regained control of both houses of Congress.

[Bad Santa]

64. I pray Democrats do regain both houses of Congress

I'm more than happy to be wrong, if I'm wrong at the same time the Dems regain the House and Senate.

If Democrats do regain both houses of Congress, then those who have the ability to manipulate these very manipulatable electronic voting machines chose not to do so. The vulnerabilities of these machines is an undeniable FACT. These machines need to be chucked so we never have to worry about this problem again.

[slackmaster]

67. Great example of Conspiracy theory in action

If Democrats do regain both houses of Congress, then those who have the ability to manipulate these very manipulatable electronic voting machines chose not to do so....

Rule #97: If evidence fails to validate the existence of the Conspiracy, grant the Conspiracy the power to make itself invisible at will.

:hide:

...The vulnerabilities of these machines is an undeniable FACT. These machines need to be chucked so we never have to worry about this problem again.

Switching to Sarcasm Off mode, clearly you and I don't see eye to eye on everything Bad Santa. But I agree with you 100% on those two sentences.

Peace.

[Name removed]

72. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Der Blaue Engel]

77. Just because it doesn't get stolen now, doesn't mean it wasn't stolen then

We "stolen election people" (righhhhhhhht, it's just us tinfoilers and our silly ol' theories) have been fighting like hell to get out the vote, get rid of the machines, volunteering at precincts, and donating money like crazy, so we will be thrilled to pieces that our efforts have helped push the vote margin into safe enough territory to defeat the fucking thieves.

[slackmaster]

79. Yet another way to perpetuate the Conspiracy

Yeah, you got rid of those machines all right. I have to give you folks kudos for creativity.

Rule #100: When a Conspiracy that should only have become more powerful and sophisticated over the last two years as more people have become potential victims fails to materialize, claim credit for defeating it.

[progressivebydesign]

58. You're absolutely right Der Balue Engel... n/t

[applegrove]

21. Absolutely right. Plus day voters are a different demographic than

after work voters. So hold onto your horses and if you have not yet.... VOTE!

[Selatius]

22. Exit polls are used internationally as one DETECTOR of ELECTION FRAUD. n/t

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

26. Exit polls are usually quite good.

If they conflict with the results, they are, IMO, circumstantial evidence of voter fraud.

I'm quite happy with the exit polls. Better this than the other way around.

[stepnw1f]

38. Exit Polls = Evidence

Very important.

[sendero]

40. Exit polls..

... are very accurate, done properly within 1% or so. That is as long as there is no election fraud.

[montana500]

45. Take note of them, but do not celebrate until the results are in.

That's my only messsage. 2004 was far too painful.

[sendero]

54. I understand..

... but if there are huge discrepancies between the exit polls and the recorded vote, we have to act.

[NYC Liberal]

46. I still have this thread from '04 saved...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=309

EARLY EXIT POLLS ARE IN!!!!!!

Buzzflash.com with early results as of 1:30. Kerry up in all swing states. 20pt in PA, 4pt OH, 3pt FL, up in MI WI NM NH

[montana500]

52. painful memories indeed! nm

nm

[Beelzebud]

49. I hear that. Im' fuckin nervous!

[slackmaster]

53. I see a lot of broad-brush generalizations here

e.g. "Exit polls are accurate."

The fact is, there are good ones and not so good ones.

At the end of the day there is only one poll that matters - the election itself. Accuracy tests are better accomplished by random audits of all results, and targeted manual recounts of suspect ones.

[Bad Santa]

69. I see someone who swallows neo-con spin

Exit polls ARE accurate. EVERYWHERE.

[slackmaster]

71. You're howling at the Moon, Bad Santa

Exit polls ARE accurate. EVERYWHERE.

Prove it.

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Perhaps you would like to rephrase your subject line to indicate simply that we disagree.

[Name removed]

73. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

74. Deleted message

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[progressivebydesign]

55. Exit polls USED TO be worth something.. until Bush started stealing elections...

..now they must be tempered with caution.. as we have been screwed repeatedly by the repubs. Exit polls used to be unbelievably accurate. Just remember folks, 'he who counts the votes controls the world'.

[Bad Santa]

62. Exit polls work everywhere but US?

Horsefeathers. The CBC had fast accurate exit polls done for Canada's fairly recent national elections.

You are repeating a LIE. Exit Polls are done fast and done accurately everywhere else in the world. Mathematics does not change at the US border.