XM & Sirius Merger? RoscoT do you know anything about this?

[XOKCowboy]

Just read it on the DenverPostonline. It's a report from Bloomberg.

An attempt to merge Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., the two largest pay-radio providers, is likely to occur within the next 18 months, Denver-based analyst Kit Spring of Stifel Nicolaus & Co. said.

A combination would create $650 million in annual savings, Spring said in a report published Nov. 27. He put the chances of a bid by one side or the other at 75 percent.

XM and Sirius have spent billions of dollars on competition with each other, signing up celebrities such as Howard Stern, Martha Stewart, Bob Dylan and Oprah Winfrey. Their share prices have each declined by more than one-third this year, partly because of investor concerns over marketing and programming costs.

Sirius Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin and XM Chairman Gary Parsons have publicly discussed the benefits of a merger, and both have said they think regulators would block one.

The whole article can be found here: http://www.denverpost.com/ci_4734662

It says that Sirius will probably be the main provider but will merge technologies. I hope they do it finally.

[Kutjara]

1. Since XM and Sirius seem to be the only two satellite radio...

...operators in the US, wouldn't a merger run contrary to monopolies legislation? Or can we just forget all about such technicalities in Bushes corporate utopia?

[GreenPartyVoter]

4. Prevent monopolies? In theUSA, today? Surely you jest.

[Rosco T.]

6. Not. Gonna. Happen. (and don't call me Shirley) But...

if it did happen...

1) the PRIMARY hardware platform would be XM. Twice as many of them out there, less cost for swapout in the long run.

2) XM platform easier to work with, no 'chinese fire drill' on sat coverage - geostationary sats are far easier to hit:



3) you would have to have compete duplicate programming available for BOTH platforms till a swapout could be done (this could
take YEARS) not to mention the horrorshow of trying to swap out the tech in 'factory standard' cars.

4) the sheer cost of maintaining BOTH platforms would totally NEGATE any savings of the merger unless they just kicked one platform to the curb.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

[XOKCowboy]

12. Didn't think about cars with SatRadio in them...

That really would be a horror show.

If the merger happens then the new oompany will need both XM's and Sirius's current customers to survive. That means spending tons of cash to help the losing platform's subscribers to purchase new equipment not to mention what it'll cost to buy out those who just say the heck with SatRadio.

It'll be interesting to watch. Sirius's owner has a history of consolidating.

[high density]

15. XM seems to need a lot more bandwidth

And I guess that would be the most valuable thing that they'd get from Sirius, even if it did take some time to get the hardware swapped out to support any new spectrum. I'd gladly buy a new XM radio tomorrow if it meant saying goodbye to sub-AM quality audio.

[Scout1071]

33. Yea, but now they have "converters" that you can plug in cars.

They can switch XM to Sirius. What's to say they don't try this until they can upgrade completely? I've long thought the merger would eventually happen. I really like the music better on Sirius, but I prefer some of the XM "talk" content and they have better equipment. I'd love to get most of my Sirius stations now with the addition of Air America (what I originally bought Sirius for - bah-stads!) on XM equipment.

Awesome animation by the way. I have never scene how that works and it could explain why my coverage is a bit shady at times.

[hlthe2b]

2. hmmm... now that is interesting....

Yes, calling Rosco T! Whatcha hearing?

[cascadiance]

3. I think if they try this, that will be the impetus for the Dems to "deconsolidate" the media...

They will then have an example to use as a reason to move forward to reverse the Telecomm act and put in place legislation to break up these consolidation efforts. There might be a few dems like Jane Harman that might stand in the way of it, but I think constituent pressure might get many others thinking this way. I would think that some of these companies would want to tread a little lightly right now or they might find themselves in trouble not just in trying to do a Sirius/XM merger.

[radwriter0555]

5. I said this would happen back in May.

I also said the dollar would tank and that the housing market would take a crap.

[KharmaTrain]

7. Both Companies Are Bleeding Badly...

5 years ago I remember the propaganda both companies were throwing to investors...expecting 5 times more subscribers today than they have and basing their expenditures on lofty goals that now have dug both companies deep into debt. Look at all the money Karmazin and Sirius threw at Howard Stern and how little has come back. There's been a huge turnover in subscribers...many bailing out of their contracts and the numbers of new paying customers shrinking. Back 5 years ago the "conventional wisdom" is one of the two would drown in their debt and the other would buy it out...instead it looks like both are down for the count and hoping a merger can buy them more time...and some kind of bailout (ala Clear Channel).

[Rosco T.]

10. "Look at all the money Karmazin and Sirius threw at Howard Stern and how little has come back"

Bingo. That's been the Sirius model.. throw money at it and hope it grows. Stern. Martha Stewart. NASCAR (they paid twice what XM paid and the bought XM out of the lat year), NFL, etc.. etc....

XM has been concentrating on IN HOUSE content and getting soem talent/names for PROGRAMS, not CHANNELS (Dale Jr. Jimmy Johnson, the ANdretties, Danica Patrick, Oprah (ok, they gave her a channel, but it's not ALL OPRAH and she has radio experience), Bob Dylan (his show is now being broadcast on the BBC.. a first to go from SAT to terrestrial), Bob Edwards, etc.. etc...

and AIR AMERICA.

Sirius is a shotgun, trying to blast and cover everywhere...

XM is a series of precision shots... hitting targets

Yes, both are 'losing' money.. XM is doing better that Sirius in that regard. Both have had some marketing problems, XM just kicked the old ad agency to the curb and is again, taking precision shots.

[KharmaTrain]

14. Too Little Too Late?

Rosco, I've followed your posts on this topic and have had some of my own experiences with both companies over the years. Personally I don't own nor have any interest in satallite radio, but with many contacts involved in these ventures I've followed them from the original roll-outs nearly a decade ago to their current status.

Yes, XM is far better structured than Sirius, but is a merger even needed or is it "anti-competitive". Unlike television, radio doesn't have a clear digital path with three different systems, HD Radio, Satellite and Internet Radio competiting to be the dominant system and each doing their level best to mess up the other and impeding overall progress.

The major obstacle is still the concept of people paying for something they already get for free. While a satellite radio is a big advantage for those who do lots of open road driving or want it as an alternative to over-the-air, a vast majority haven't found either service that important to spend the money for the radios and subscription...in fact, I've heard plenty of former Sirius and XM customers who felt they were burned...either by the long-term contracts (remember all those who bitched here when AAR was dropped by Sirius and still stuck with one or two years on a contract) or the poor service/reliability of the radios.

I see the real challenge ahead as Internet radio is set to go very wireless in the year ahead...streaming direct to cellphones, IPODs and other wireless radio devices. My biggest problem with both services is their lack of any local service. The biggest asset radio offers is providing local weather, traffic, news, sports and personality that aren't available on either service.

Radio is suffering and suffocating from its own largess...and a tremendous talent drain. This is just the latest red flag.

Thanks for your insight...

:hi:

[DisgustedTX]

16. bahahahaha! Sirius - 6.5M; XM - 3.4M

BABBABOOEY!

[Rosco T.]

18. BABBABULLSHIT....

XM - almost 8 Million subs..

today's stock prices...

XMSR: $14.07
SIRI: $ 4.15

[DisgustedTX]

20. Sirius does NOT feel your pain. BAbaBOOHI!

FAfaFloley!

[Rosco T.]

21. and that ladies and gents, is the Sirus sub mentality that likes to shat upon threads ...

.. where people are trying to have a real discussion.


Sirius people that don't act like that, you are excluded.. but this is the crap that ruins any discussion.

[Name removed]

23. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[XOKCowboy]

8. About the regulatory "problems".

Since they are the ONLY two players in the market they wouldn't be ganging up on their competitors. They have none and the competition between themselves is hurting instead of helping satellite radio and it's consumers.

I know, I've heard promises of utopia for consumers by corporate types before also. I just believe that having one standard for satellite radio (all using the same equipment and technology) will be good for satellite radio.

[Rosco T.]

11. DirecTV / Echostar....

.. we saw how far that got.

I also agree that a 'universal' radio would be best. Take a look at the XM Passport technology.



that's the whole thing. It's made to slip in a slot on 'passport ready' receivers and car tuners. The subscription is tied to THAT LITTLE CARD so you could put it in the car receiver, get home, put it in your pocket take it inside and put it in the home receiver, put it in the portable, etc.. etc..

Thus far, Sirius had shown NO INTEREST in the tech.. hell it's taken them 2 years to catch-up in the portable market...

[freethought]

9. In some respects, it is not really surprising if its true

Sirius spent a huge amount of cash to bring names like Howard Stern onto their operation. The logic was that Stern fans would readily buy the equipment and service subscriptions in droves and the revenues would pour in. NOT!
A few million serious die-hard fans migrated to satellite radio but it was not nearly what was expected. What did Stern do? Went into a profanity laced tirade directed at the listeners who didn't follow "the King of Media" to his current station. A great many liked to listen to Stern, but they didn't like him enough to buy satellite radio service, that was for sure.
Why bother if you can simply change your free radio station and listen to a show like Opie & Anthony who push the same sophomoric garbage.
I will say this much, in the few times I have listened to satellite radio (XM) I liked what I heard. I guess the DJs have more freedom to pick the music. I was able to hear many songs from artists and groups that DO NOT get standard radio play. For me it was many blues artists like Robin Trower, Buddy Guy, and Lonnie Mack that got my attention. You don't hear that kind of stuff on regular radio. It was a good mix.
Still, I wasn't motivated enough to lay out the cash.
Maybe they should consider selling advertising. But that would kind of ruin the point of having satellite radio wouldn't it?

[XOKCowboy]

19. I was in Georgia when Frank Zappa's Watermelon In Easter Hay..

Tell me where you're going to hear that on ANY terrestrial radio much less in the middle of rural Georgia?

I love my XM for things just like that.

[Rosco T.]

22. Correctamundo.... that's what SatRadio is...

170 channels for 170 niches... something terrestrial radio can NEVER EVER do.

[KoKo]

28. For those of us in Rural or Small City Areas only Xtian Radio and Clear Channel

are available. XM has helped us keep our sanity because it carries Air America and Bob Edwards old NPR show...plus music we can listen to.

I'm sad to see them having financial problems but they need to put more radio that's worth listening to out there and drop some of the canned stuff.

But...where else can I hear music of all kinds and get the name of the song and the group that sings it? It's great. Even if we are down to one provider.

I only have one cable provider. Competition is dead in America. at least there were two satellite stations one could chose to sign on to...for awhile, at least. :shrug:

[whathappened]

13. won't this take us

in the same direction cable tv has gone , all pay to veiw or now all pay to hear , read some where that the old antena on your roof will be just a roof ornament in a few years , cause big buisness needs the air waves that use to be free on tv , so sometime in the future we will be paying for the use of radio and to all that enjoy no advertizing on these pay radio stations will have there advertizing back again

[freethought]

17. It shouldn't, I hope

If a corp wants to broadcast over open airwaves, they must be licensed to do so. The way I understand it is that, broadcast airwaves for TV and radio are property of the taxpayers, the corps are supposed to pay for and meet certain requirements to do so. With cable and satellite a person pays for the signal transmitted over privately owned cable lines or with signals that you must pay for to receive and de-scramble. They are not subject to the same requirements.
I can see your concern though, the networks seem to think they own those airwaves. They should be sharply reminded that they do not. Problem is that our current FCC commission is weighed down with big media sympathizers and tend to side with the big business view.

[DisgustedTX]

24. "The coming of TAN" will destroy XM.

They're a bit reptilian in nature.

[XOKCowboy]

25. How about one post that makes sense?

WTF are you talking about. OK I understand that you don't like XM. It would be nice if you could articulate your sentiments so I could understand anything else you've posted.

[Rosco T.]

26. Mods alerted to the moran.... if he annoys, do the same... and clean the thread n/m

[DisgustedTX]

27. Beetle is as bad as can. He knows he's the best.

Beet Life.

[Kingofalldems]

29. I get it

Beetlejuice, Riley and don't forget Jackie the jokeman. All coming to XM soon? Hope so.

[XOKCowboy]

30. I get Jackie The Jokeman all the time on XM Comedy...

His standup routine too. So does all of this have something to do with Stern? If so no wonder I thought his posts were gibberish.

[Kingofalldems]

31. Yes

Riley Martin(the coming of Tan or something like that), Beetlejuice etc. are all featured on the Stern show. Bababooey.

[XOKCowboy]

34. OK

Never been a fan of Stern. I like Jackie Martling though.

[soothsayer]

32. Mel Karmizen (Sirius, formerly of CBS Radio) won't rule it out.

I'd love to see that happen!

[Rosco T.]

35. A Merger takes two...

and Karmizen knows that Sirius is hemmoraging money... XM might buyout the dog.. but not a 'merger'.