Krugman predicting Serious Economic Storm 2007

[RamboLiberal]

http://select.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/opinion/01krugman.html?hp=&pagewanted=print

We’re now two-thirds of the way through the fourth quarter of 2006, so you might think we’d already know how the quarter is going. Yet, economists’ assessments of the current state of the U.S. economy, never mind the future, are all over the place.

And here’s the bad news: this kind of confusion about what’s going on is what typically happens when the economy is at a turning point, when an economic expansion is about to turn into a recession (or vice versa). At turning points, the various indicators that usually tell us which way the economic wind is blowing often point in different directions, so that both optimists and pessimists can find data to support their position.

The last time things were this confused was early in 2001, when most economists failed to realize that the United States was sliding into recession. If that sounds ominous, it should: the bond market, which has a pretty good record of forecasting recessions, is pointing toward a serious economic slowdown next year.

Before I explain what the bond market is telling us, let’s talk about why the economy may be at a turning point.

[bbgrunt]

1. k and r

[SEONA]

2. The economic condition has been evident from the

enslaught of foreclosures in the housing market. The real estate market is crawling and has been for some time now.

[marmar]

3. Agreed...

Step away from the fan, people. An unpleasant substance is about to hit it. :yoiks:

[Bjorn Against]

4. We should take Krugman very seriously

Many people think of Krugman merely as a New York Times columnist who writes about the corruption of the Bush administration, but they don't realize that he is not only a brilliant pundit (one of the very few in the corporate media) but he is also one of the most brilliant economists in the country. Read his biography and you will see that he is extremely well regarded in the field of economics, he knows what he is talking about on this issue.

[Jackpine Radical]

5. See what happens?

Elect a Dem Congress & the economy turns to shit immediately.

Paging Mr. Rove--Your new meme is ready.

[NMDemDist2]

6. darn that NYT n/t

[vssmith]

7. Have you ever read "The Fourth Turning?"

[DemReadingDU]

8. free site to read Krugman

12/1/06 Paul Krugman: Economic Storm Signals
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/12/paul_krugman_ec.html

[Dudley_DUright]

9. I like how he finishes off the column with a flurry of snark

Luckily, we’ve got good leadership for the coming economic storm: the White House is occupied by a man who’s ideologically flexible, listens to a wide variety of views, and understands that policy has to be based on careful analysis, not gut instincts. Oh, wait.

Ironically, his description fits Al Gore pretty well, the guy who really should be in the white house right now.