Conclusion: Bush WANTS civil war in Iraq

[many a good man]

1. He purged the Baathists and dismissed the military because they were too smart and wouldn't have allowed the Americans to take over their oil.

2. He put DAWA and SCIRI (Iranian-backed terrorist organizations) and the Shia death squads in power in exchange for letting US set Iraqi oil policy.

3. Shia leadership shows some independence, Iran gets uppity, so he turns on the spigot to feed the Sunni resistance.

4. ISG report comes out saying the only solution is political and diplomatic compromise. He ignores it.

Had the sanctions been lifted American companies would have been left without any control of Iraqi oil and no oil-related contracts (and with Iraqi oil sold on the market in Euros). This war was fought for the benefit of large Anglo-American oil and gas companies. If a political compromise is ever reached that shuts out these firms the war would have been all for nothing.

They can't let this happen. Therefore they have to keep the civil war on a medium broil in the hopes that the situation will become so dire that an American-backed strongman will be welcomed by the people to take over control of the country. Even if it takes decades. That's why Bush needs to be impeached and our troops brought home immediately.

[AlinPA]

1. Sometimes I think he wants the violence to increase to reach the "end times"

armageddon to please the rw evangelical-fundamentalists so that Jesus comes.

[many a good man]

6. I doubt it.

Otherwise he'd be helping Iran nuke up. Of course, its entirely possible that they are doing so in secret (Brewster-Jennings, AQ Khan) but I don't think Big Oil would be very supportive. Its my opinion that the Bush 41 Crew was brought in because they are very friendly with the Iranians and are looking for a deal to keep the heat turned up to benefit the far right in both Iran and US.

[madokie]

2. agree on all fronts

[aquart]

3. Nah.

This guy comes from supporters of Nazis and the eugenics movement. He doesn't believe that the darkies or brownies are exactly human or that they aren't eager, like his dog, Barney, for a good master to tell them what to do.

He really did expect them all to lick his hand.

Now he figures they've just gone bad, rabid...and you all know what ya do with a rabid dog, dontcha?

[annabanana]

4. This is "the mission" that he is determined to see though.

The "job will be done" and he will "succeed" when he has finished this mission.

It always has been.

[baldguy]

5. "Things are going great - We're succeeding in Iraq."

Chaos...economic disaster...mass murders...the potential for a wider regional war - If they call that success, then it must be what their objective was.

[Nite Owl]

7. I agree he does want the chaos but

I have always thought it was for the home front also. He figured his ratings would be high as long as he could scare us enough and make people feel guiilty enough that we can't criticize them as long as we are a country at war. That means power, power to do as they please and turn us totally over to the corporate powers. It didn't work out that way, we did speak out, we shouted out, we screamed out and we were heard. Now he doesn't know what to do with the war or anything else.

[many a good man]

8. Convergence of interests

I agree totally with your point: external enemies and war helps consolidate power to the right wing. I think that explains the motivations of many actors in the Middle East.

I don't think Big Oil instigated this misadventure. They have traditionally been Arabists. They prefer stability in their client states. They like having Camp Israel in the region for deterrence, but flinch when we go overboard in their support and rile the masses too much. They know that any country that has oil under the ground is going to sell it - through THEIR distribution and marketing lines. They have enormous patience.

Big Oil acquiesced. They were talked into this mess with the promise of enormous profits and eventual stability. They were taken. It was the oil-related industries like Halliburton and the war profiteers that pushed for this war. It was the Bush 41 Crew versus the Cheney-Halliburton-NeoCon crew. The Old Guard is now pissed because Junior blew it all to hell.

We can't make the mistake of many conspiracy theorists and think that all the conspirers are in 100% agreement. Its more like the Mafia. They align around convergences of interests. We now have the imperative of removing the Bush-Cheney NeoCon junta before we can go after the more long term serious enemy of the people, the Old Guard represented by Baker.

[Nite Owl]

12. Excellent assessment

The mafia describes them perfectly and I couldn't agree more about removing the Neocons first then the old guard. The old guard represents the phoney conservatives who have ruined our foreign and domestic policy for decades with things like Iran-contra etc. They were more subtle, the neocons more upfront and brash about their imperialistic tendencies. So much so that they blew the cover on the old guard.

Getting rid of the old guard will be more difficult.I'm not sure that the old guard will ever be gone, there are too many in Congress who go along with them. Why else would Poppy have been allowed to get away with Iran contra, he got off scott free and with his reputation in tact. That has always bothered me that he was never held accountable and that he is still lauded for his foreign policy accomplishments. It will be tougher to break them and be able for America to assume a truly benign and consiliatory role on the world stage, to be what we say we are for national consumption.

When we venture into anothers motivation it is always speculative and that could be called by some conspiracy theory but really it is just trying to understand and put together the facts that we have, the puzzle of past events. The secretiveness of this administrations leaves them open to much speculation as to their movitvation but sometimes there are facts that speak for themselves.

[Dangerman]

9. Get rid on one Saddam to install another...

honor among theives.

[bloom]

10. yep

that's what I've been thinking for awhile.

And when he says things like he wants victory over extremists across the "broader Middle East".... And that he will do anything to justify what he's doing.

All along - in various State of the Union addresses he has said things about changing the world, changing the Middle East. I think Civil War is his method. That is the only thing that explains what he does and how he can say that it is a success (or at least he was saying that about a month ago - maybe someone got him to stop).

[applegrove]

11. It really makes you wonder. They sure seem to have wanted a long

& slow war. That part is for sure. Whether they expected it to be so bloody and violent.. I don't know.

[MissWaverly]

20. I think this has been their dream all along

a new Cold War, something to fuel an arms race and pork spending on defense contractors for
years to come, this could be a profitable cash cow for years. They
see Iraq as a huge success because it has brought huge profits to their cronies, that is
all that matters to them, the profits not the suffering that went with it, that is just
collateral damage to them.

[hvn_nbr_2]

13. "An American-backed strongman"

It wouldn't surprise me if they're grooming one of the Shah's grandkids somewhere right now.

[corkhead]

14. That can't be possible. He has been a failure at everything he has set out to do.

why would this be any different?

[leftofthedial]

15. chaos was their purpose

that gives us a long-term rationale for staying there and "protecting" the oil.

(and making obscene profits)

[bigtree]

16. The U.S. is 'fomenting' the civil war in Iraq by arming and training Iraqis to kill each other

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2873521


http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_ron_full_061207_the_u_s__is__fomenti.htm

[DaveT]

17. With all the talk lately about Peak Oil,

most people forget that the history of the oil business is one long tale of clever oil men trying to limit production to keep the price up. The oil in the ground in Iraq is not going anywhere and the notion of fighting a war to get "control" of it is a grotesque oversimplification.

There is a global cartel (or, if you are fastidious about terms, a global oligopoly) that controls the refining, distribution and marketing of oil. Neither Hugo Chavez nor any other local political leader can evade this reality -- all that can be done is to shave a few percentage points off the margin that goes to everybody else on the Gravy Train. I'm sure that there are plenty of guys who would kill or start a war for those few points, but the problem with that line of thinking is that it explains a theoretical war against Venezuela, but it explains nothing about what has happened in Iraq.

There was never any major beef with Saddam Hussein over the split on oil profits. If you will recall that picture of Rummy kissing up to him cerca 1983 (or so), it is clear that he was a favored local potentate who took his share of the profit and made war against Iran with it -- a doubly happy result for the oil cartel, helping restrict production and thereby supporting the global price for oil.

I have read one plausible conspiracy theory that he was threatening to sell Iraqi oil in Euros or some other currency, and that supposedly is why the Bush Family Business got so steamed up for Regime Change. The problem with this, however, is that Saddam was on the Hit List all during the Clinton Interregnum, and the Shrub Government seriously debated invading Iraq before Afghanistan.

I submit that the Oil Angle on this criminal enterprise is mainly to keep Iraqi oil in the ground for as long as possible. If a Bremer Plan or a Baker Plan can "open up" the state owned Iraqi Oil Industry for "private" investment, so much the better. But I don't think that the war was arranged for that purpose.

The profits already banked by the Halliburton/war contractors ring far exceeds the money that "owning" the oil in the ground in Iraq would generate. Remember, the oil profit equation is not how much all that Iraqi oil will fetch at the retail level -- it is how much more owning the wells adds to the profit already guaranteed at every other level of the distribution system. And the opportunity cost of security in Iraq has so far exceeded any possible benefit to come from "owning" the wells. And is likely to remain a prohibitive burden on further development of Iraqi oil for the forseeable future.

No, the petrocrooks are taking advantage of the situation nicely, as the global price for oil has climbed during the war.

But it is Dick Cheney and his war contracting sponsors who created this disaster. And the longer the disaster goes on, the more money they make.

[Gregorian]

18. And then reinstate international forces where asked to do so.

Also it is at this point where I stand back and look at 9/11 again, with my eyes squinting. It was no accident. It was used as a means of starting this conflict. And that is the context in which all of this happened.

Of course I'm blowing hot air at everyone here. We all knew this years ago.

[Dems Will Win]

19. This is absolutely true. This is what the permanent bases are for.

Civil War between three states.

Did you know the US media is not reporting the Iraqi Parliament already passed 200 laws in October to split into three states in just 17 months??