How bad is the housing decline?

[Earth_First]

MUCH worse than we're probably being led to believe. What I just read while reading up on the subject astounds me:

"...the government’s home price measure does not include homes with mortgages greater than $417,000."


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/06/realestate/06home.html?ex=1165813200&en=d857024c794c0490&ei=5070

400,000 in most metropolitan areas won't get you much. So it's to be assumed that there is a much bigger decline here than were being led to believe. I'd be willing to bet that the devaluation of price is closer to 60% in the major city markets rather the 13% we're being spoonfed.

[Warren Stupidity]

1. My one data point is around 15%

My siblings and I are selling our parents house and the 15% is about the difference between what we were told the house would sell for last year and what we are getting for it this year. NYC area.

I've been through these slumps before and the downside never seems to be all that steep or long. Population keeps increasing and people need to live somewhere, and people who do not have to sell in a slump just hold until it passes over. That said, this time could of course be different. What really hurts is if you are in the housing business, either making them or selling them for a living.

[CanonRay]

2. So many are mortgaged to the hilt

So any large downturn means you cannot sell for enought to pay off the loan. The result is foreclosure and/or bankruptcy. Plus the borrowing on homes, and spending when a new home is purchases, has been fueling the rest of the economy for most of the Bush years.

[Earth_First]

3. 3,000,000,000 (trillion) in Adjustable Rate Mortgages will reset in the comming year... n/t

[European Socialist]

4. Also, when the home owner throws in a new car to the seller--does that...

show up in in the selling price?

[Warren DeMontague]

5. If you're one of the millions waiting for prices to come down so you can buy a house

it's FUCKING AWFUL!!! At least, you're hoping it is.

Of course, the fact there ARE millions of people waiting for prices to come down so that they can buy means that it's really not going to be that awful.

I live in one of the most arguably "over-valued" parts of the country.. and the market has slowed, no question. But the idea that the bottom is going to fall out of real estate values is a fantasy.

[Nabia2004]

7. I started looking for a home in `89 waiting for the drop

Kept waiting and waiting, it never really happened. Finally, in September 2000 I bought my first home for $180k, thinking it was way over-priced. Ten years earlier it sold for $80k, last month it was apprised for $400k. I'm in the Seattle area and there seems to be no end to the migration of people moving here.

[BrokenBeyondRepair]

8. those millions should keep an eye on the dollars value as well

fractional-reserve banking is basically a pyramid scheme.. eventually it will collapse and guess who'll get screwed. responsible policy can only prolong the inevitable and its pretty safe to assume that a responsible fiscal policy does not exist.

ur right re: the bottom won't fall out in real estate because it will always be considered a tangible asset but those millions waiting to scoop up real estate at bargain prices are delusional unless they take actions to protect wealth now.

the decline in real estate could just be a catalyst..

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. They are still building spec houses here in Arkansas

but then we are getting a huge influx of people from the east and west coasts, mostly retirees, who like the prices. But there has been a definate slowdown in home sales even here-about 10-15% fewer than this time last year. All the realtors say it is slow, and I've noticed the number of repos that we estimate is up as well. (I work for a pest control company that does termite treatments on new and existing houses.)