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History is against Obama and Hillary (and even Edwards) in a 2008 Presidential election

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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 11:33 AM
Original message
History is against Obama and Hillary (and even Edwards) in a 2008 Presidential election
Edited on Sun Dec-10-06 11:34 AM by brentspeak
The last person to be elected President who had not previously served as either a governor or the Vice-President was JFK, all the way back in 1962. And, unlike Obama, Kennedy had already served an entire six-year term as senator; it would sort of be arrogant of Obama if he really does run for President for 2008. Hillary, forget about; she's suffering delusions of some sort. Edwards, who I would really like for President, is at a real disadvantage, because of the JFK history thing. Remember, too, that Kennedy was highly dependent on both the poltical connections and dubious dealings of his father in order to beat Nixon.

Wesley Clark, though, can take comfort in the fact that Ike had never been an elected official; generals have been elected President at least twice before in American history.
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EVDebs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 11:36 AM
Response to Original message
1. V for vendetta...Go with Gore and win. No more usurpers to the job nt
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msongs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 11:39 AM
Response to Original message
2. the messiah, the virgin mary, and what is edwards? nt
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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. Edwards would be the Hail Mary.
:silly:
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 11:39 AM
Response to Original message
3. Only two senators have been elected President in 100 years
They CAN win, but it is obvious why they have a tougher go of it. Senators voting records are so much easier to distort and slime than a governor's policies.

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Recursion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
4. I did a breakdown of it last week
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=2853634

Judging by history, Senators are twice as likely to lose as to win when running for President. Generals are 4 and 4. Cabinet secretaries are 4 and 0. Vice Presidents are 4 and 4. Governors are 8 and 8.
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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Thanks for that link. That was a good analysis.
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NovaNardis Donating Member (133 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
7. It would be arrogant of Obama to run?
I hardly see that as the case. Kennedy couldn't have run in 1956. Too many people liked Eisenhower.

Kennedy tried for VP in '56, but didn't get it. He tried the steady method, and then decided to just go for it. I don't see how Obama would just be 'arrogant' to run in 2008. That argument doesn't make sense.

Edwards and Hillary and Obama (and Bayh, and Biden) might seem disadvantaged because of history, but history doesn't dictate the present. There is a reason Senator's generally don't win; they talk like Senators; meaning that they use overly verbose and nuanced language to make their points. Whether or not you want to admit it, the American public is too stupid to appareciate that. Then they go and elect someone like Bush, who talks like they do. Poorly.

Case in point, John Kerry. Jack Kennedy didn't talk like a Senator, though. And neither to Obama or Edwards. Hillary doesn't either, to a lesser extent. I think it is going to be Obama/Clinton. HISTORY tells me that. (Look at JFK/LBJ).
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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. The big difference between LBJ and Hillary Clinton
Edited on Sun Dec-10-06 12:03 PM by brentspeak
is that LBJ was necessary for JFK to be competitive in the South; Hillary would automatically make the top of the Democratic ticket uncompetitive in the South.
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msongs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. not proven by facts in evidence here
unless you control the votes of all southerners.

maybe all those dixie chicks would love to vote for hillary as president!

maybe only the hard case fundies and wingers would NOT vote for hillary.

maybe only the people who see Barbara Bush as the true model of southern womanhood would not vote for Hillary.

Oh, my beautiful mind swoons at the possibilities.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 01:37 PM
Response to Original message
10. This is a very unusual political atmosphere, and I don't know if precedents
Edited on Sun Dec-10-06 01:57 PM by Peace Patriot
can tell us anything. Really, there has been nothing like this in our history. SEVENTY-PERCENT of the American people opposed to an unjust, heinous, failed war that the President refuses to end. This is reminiscent more of Tsarist Russia than anything else. Egregious non-transparency, unfairness and illegitimacy in the last three general elections. Corporate entities who favor one political faction--the extreme right--"counting" all the votes with TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY programming code, in extremely insecure, unreliable and insider hackable voting systems. (Fast-forward to Stalinist Russia and its phony elections.) The theft of billions and billions and billions of dollars from the US treasury, by war profiteers who blatantly MANUFACTURED a war, wrote the lying script for the war in the war profiteering corporate news monopolies, ignored FIFTY-SIX PERCENT opposition to the war among the American people at that time, and are still illegally occupying another country and vacuuming in more billions from the pockets of US taxpayers, and no one can stop them, and no one in power seems to really want to. (You have to go back to the most depraved and corrupt of the Roman emperors for a precedent on the massive, unaccountable theft--it is mind-boggling.) An idiot in the White House who claims the powers of an emperor--to torture, to detain, to spy on everyone, to defy the laws of the land, to rip up the Constitution before our very eyes. Even the old monarch, Bush I, cannot contain him. Global corporate predators of immense size and power writing our laws, creating our trade policies, purchasing our politicians, outsourcing all our jobs, price gouging, outright stealing billions of our tax dollars, and appropriating the US military to conduct their corporate resource wars. (No precedent--our US-based global corporate predators are our unique creation, in magnitude, if not in idea. Living forever, sucking up all wealth and resources, accountable to no one.)

In this context, what I call "Time Magazine"'s candidates*--Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama--portend a rather sickening ritual of a "business as usual" presidential campaign. Obama, oh so careful in his wording of his statements on Iraq, and not really criticizing that policy until it was politically safe to do so. Clinton, gungho all the way, for the illegal, unjust, heinous war. Not likely she'll eschew torture, once in office. It might come in handy to the Corporate Rulers that she is the tool of.

We need a revolution, not a nauseating, boring, stifling "business as usual" presidential campaign. And no one that I know of, and no one in the vast, peaceful, global democracy movement wants it to be bloody. How to accomplish it?

It has nothing to do with someone being a Senator or a Governor. It just doesn't. That is quite irrelevant, in these highly unusual conditions--in which we have, in effect, suffered a fascist junta for six years.

Hillary Clinton is deaf to most Americans. How can such an unresponsive, insensitive leader be the champion of the people that is needed? It makes no difference that she is a Senator. And Obama is too inexperienced, too green and too politic. Too slick. The color of his skin and his life story may have appeal. But do those things really qualify him to lead our broken country out of this nightmare? I don't think so.

We need an unusual candidate, and an unusual campaign. And there are only three leaders I'm aware of who have the solidity, maturity and greatness to understand the situation we are in, and the visionary capacity--the magic--to inspire the American people and to help us recover from the Bush Junta, to mobilize our potentially great creativity and resourcefulness as a people. Gore, Feingold and Dean. And none of them is apparently willing to do it--although we must take with a grain of salt all refusals to run, at this point.

Of these, Gore has been the most outspoken, Feingold is a close second, and Dean has had other things to deal with (organization, pulling people together--trying to implement the will of the people, rather than specifically articulating it). I think Gore is the one to lead the unusual campaign that is needed. He has vast experience of government, in both the executive and legislation branches, but has been outside of government--observing, analyzing, sharply and brilliantly criticizing--for six years. He has been able to create a truly positive and great focus for national policy--saving the planet, and ending corporate resource wars, by converting to non-polluting alternative energy. This is what distance from government has enabled him to see. We have no organizing principle. We are ignoring the big picture, trapped as we are in the fascist corporate hysteria at the end of oil.

Gore knows what the focus of national policy should be--how to focus it on positive goals. Not stealing everybody else's oil, to keep this pollution-ridden and fascist-ridden economy propped up. But CHANGING the basis of the economy--to alternative energy, which I think we could do in five years, if we put our minds to it. (Yup, FIVE years!) (We are a very creative and industrious people, with just a little bit of leadership.) Gore has also been passionate in his condemnation of the Bush regime's violations of the Constitution, unlawfulness, unjust war, and lack of decency and ethical principles. (Really, his speeches on these subjects will make you cry!) He has achieved great clarity on these fundamental things--and, although he has said nothing about NAFTA et al (bad corporate globalization, fostered by the Clinton-Gore White House), that I know of, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on it, and presume that he has re-thought this as well. In any case, I think his leadership is so badly needed--and so potentially healing and energizing of our country--that I'm willing to fight that one out AFTER order has been restored in this country, and we have a legitimate government once again.

Gore WAS elected president. He SHOULD HAVE BEEN president these last six years. Everybody knows it. And I think he is the one candidate who will simply overwhelm the Bushite-controlled voting machines, if we still have them by then, and will sweep the primaries and win the general election by a landslide, no matter who the war profiteers and corporate rulers put up against him.

Will he run? I don't think he's been working as hard as he has on national policy, and delivering it in major speeches for over two years now, to quietly go back to being a professor or a filmmaker/TV producer. I think he wants it. I think he IS running for president--but he is also in a very tricky position, as a former VP and Presidential candidate, especially one associated with Bill Clinton, whose wife is running for president. I think his declaration might drive her and others out of the race, for one thing--and I get the feeling he doesn't want to do that. He wants open debate, which only a field of various candidates can produce. The tricky part is that, in our current primary system, he HAS to enter the primaries--unless he is betting on stalemate in the primaries, or great division in the party, and a "draft Gore" movement (whereby other candidates would release their votes to him at the Convention). I think Hillary in particular will be a very divisive candidate. She has just been too pro-war. She will not have grass roots support--and there may well be a revolt against her. (I don't know if it will be as bad as 1968, but it could be.) (And if I was a rightwing electronic voting corporation, with "trade secret" software "counting" all the votes, and wanted to fracture the Democratic Party in '08, I would favor Hillary with election theft in the primaries).**

**(You see what I mean by a very unusual political atmosphere? We can't really count on anything. All our institutions are seriously corrupted. We can have no confidence in them. We don't know what's going to happen--from more stolen elections to Bush-Cheney declaring martial law and invading Iran.)

Well, that's my analysis so far. As to the issue in the OP, Gore has been both (long experience in the Senate, and also as VP in the executive--running a government). But I don't think that's nearly as important as the fact that he won the 2000 election, and has been thinking and speaking like a president-in-exile ever since, with great brilliance and focus. As to the mechanics of getting him nominated, I imagine he's given it some thought, so I won't give it much more. If I'm right, he already has a plan.

And I think Feingold would be an excellent running mate. (I've pretty much given up on a full "Restoration Ticket"--Gore/Kerry--because Kerry has stumbled once too often as the other president-in-exile, and lacks Gore's strong leadership qualities and presence. I am still ENCHANTED with the idea of RESTORING ORDER in the country, and putting the two men in the White House who WERE elected. But Kerry has failed us, unfortunately, on an important presidential skill: how to bludgeon or beguile hostile corporate news monopolies.)

----------

*(Re: "Time Magazine"'s candidates. I will never forget Time Magazine putting Bill Clinton on its COVER at the BEGINNING of the primaries in 1992, before he was known by anyone, nationally. I had this sickening feeling: Oh, yeah, the East Coast-Government-Rich People-Establishment has chosen our candidate, and that's it--why bother with the primaries? Bill proceeded to lie through his teeth about labor and environmental protections in "free trade" agreements. The impacts of those lies and failures have now come back to haunt us, big time. "Free trade" is ruining our lives--or the lives of MOST Americans (excluding corporate CEOs and the super-rich)--and those of millions of others around the globe as well. So that's what I mean by "Time Magazine"'s candidates. They also did the same for Arnold Schwarzenegger--put him on their cover at the BEGINNING of a short, six-week campaign, in an extremely odd Recall election, with 125 candidates on the ballot, in the first Diebold election in California. Time Magazine had spoken--and it had further given this famous actor millions and millions of dollars worth of free publicity, as did Larry King. It was sickenng. Our corporate rulers are now both corrupting our elections beyond belief, AND stealing them outright. The double-whammy is very hard to fight. But of course that's what they intend--that we should never have a free choice of our leaders ever again.)


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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Obama was more anti-Iraq War than I've given him credit for, so I want to
correct the record. Here's a quote of Obama in Sept. 02 (before the IWR and the invasion--he was not yet a Senator):

"I don't oppose all wars. What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne." --Barack Obama (from Paul Krugman's column today)

Fair enough. He had it right, and hit them hard--very early. I still think he played politics with the war in his Dem Convention speech. I was so disappointed in it. And the way the war profiteering corporate news monopolies fawn all over him truly makes me nervous and suspicious. We have so often had FALSE Democrats sold to us by the corporate media.

Bill Clinton is a good example. He was also the "Time Magazine" candidate, picked by them and placed on their cover BEFORE the primaries in 1992, when he was still relatively unknown. He promised to include labor and environmental protections in "free trade" agreements, and then promptly turned around and did the bidding of global corporate predators after he was elected.

Another that stands out in my mind, maybe because it was my first vote for president, in 1964: LBJ sold himself to the public as "the peace candidate." I voted for him for that reason. The moment he was in office, he escalated the Vietnam War, and upwards of TWO MILLION PEOPLE were eventually slaughtered in that unnecessary and unjust war. Lesson: Beware of Democrats bearing "peace." I shall never forget that lesson.
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. thanks for correcting on Obama! I was going to post and found you added to your thoughts
Hugs.

And it's interesting you being up tsarist Russia. So much of the neoCon world reminds of the Soviets. Perhaps their obsession with their boogieman-Communist bloc for all those years has formed these morons more than they know.
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suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 01:50 PM
Response to Original message
11. Let them all run who choose to.....
Edited on Sun Dec-10-06 01:53 PM by suston96
...and we, the people will decide who will represent the parties. Not the media, not the talking heads on TV, and not the bloggers - on either side. Let the people decide in the primaries.

Senators? An African American Senator? A woman senator? Who cares where they come from, or which sex they are, or the color of their skin ! Aren't we all over that sex and race crap yet?

Oh, maybe not. We had better let the media, and the TV talking heads, and the bloggers do the choosing for us. The aren't swayed by such biases.
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Ignacio Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 05:46 PM
Response to Original message
13. Senators do poorly against INCUMBENTS
Edited on Sun Dec-10-06 05:48 PM by Ignacio Upton
In the 20th century, six Senators ran and four lost. Those four (Goldwater, McGovern, Dole, and Kerry) all ran against incumbents. Harding and Kennedy ran in open races with no incumbent President. Governors are better for defeating incumbents and Senators do alright in open races.
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MethuenProgressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
14. "History" isn't a registered voter...
Edited on Sun Dec-10-06 05:57 PM by MethuenProgressive
and is neither for nor against anything.
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 06:01 PM
Response to Original message
15. I honestly had no idea that a Senator hadn't been elected President since 1960
It's not like there's a thread about it every day on DU or anything.

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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. Since Election Day, I haven't read DU every day
Maybe once or twice every week. How bout you?
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. This argument gets re-hashed on DU every day
Edited on Sun Dec-10-06 10:37 PM by Hippo_Tron
And it's an argument that I'm tired of refuting.

If you have a Senator that has charisma and political skill, they will do better than a Governor that puts people to sleep and has no political skill. Yet people seem to be searching for anyone as long as they are a Governor.

Goldwater, McGovern, Mondale, and Dole all would've lost had they been Governors because they were shitty candidates to begin with.

Kerry may be the one example who lost an election because of his mile long senatorial voting record. But as someone else pointed out, without his experience on the Senate foreign relations committee, he might not have crushed Bush in the first debate on issues like North Korea.

Not only that but Governors can have huge liabilities just like Senators can. Michael Dukakis was leading Bush by 17 points coming out of the Democratic National Convention. Willie Horton single-handedly ruined the election for him. Had Dukakis been a Senator and thus not had a giant liability like Willie Horton on his hands, it's may very well have won the election.
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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-10-06 06:04 PM
Response to Original message
16. I don't know
I did a post on this just yesterday.

Essentially, since 1896 (the first "modern" presidential race) there have been only 6 sitting senators nominated (incl. Bob Dole, who actually resigned his Senate seat during the campaign). Out of those, 2 won, 4 lost. Although Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Richard Nixon in 1972 were probably unbeatable and the especially poor showings of Goldwater ('64) and McGovern ('72) were due more to their perceived extremism than their positions as senators. Clinton in '96 was also in a nearly unbeatable position, although he might have been able to be defeated against the right candidate.

As for governors since 1896? Not including incumbent presidents, 22 governors or former governors have been nominated. 7 won, 9 lost.

1896 - Gov. William McKinley of Ohio (R) - elected
1912 - Gov. Woodrow Wilson of NJ (D) - elected
1916 - Supreme Court Justice and former Gov. Charles Evans Hughes of NY (D) - lost
1920 - Gov. James Cox of Ohio (D) - lost
1928 - Gov. Al Smith of of NY (D) - lost
1932 - Gov. Franklin D. Roosevelt of NY (D) - elected
1936 - Gov. Alf Landon of Kansas (R) - lost
1944 - Gov. Tom Dewey of NY (R) - lost
1948 - Gov. Tom Dewey of NY (R) - lost
1952 - Gov. Adlai Stevenson of Illinois (D) - lost
1956 - Gov. Adlai Stevenson of Illinois (D) - lost
1976 - former Gov. Jimmy Carter of Georgia (D) - elected
1980 - former Gov. Ronald Reagan of California (R) - elected
1988 - Gov. Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts (D) - lost
1992 - Gov. William J. Clinton of Arkansas - won
2000 - Gov. George W. Bush of Texas - "won"

It seems to me that the real problem for senators is just getting nominated.
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