Did Bush give Iraq VP Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim a go-ahead when they met for a silent coup to oust Maliki?

[bigtree]

Iraqi Politicians in Talks to Replace Al-Maliki as PM

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Major partners in Iraq's governing coalition are in behind-the-scenes talks to oust Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki amid discontent over his failure to quell raging violence, according to lawmakers involved.

The talks are aimed at forming a new parliamentary bloc that would seek to replace the current government and that would likely exclude supporters of the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who is a vehement opponent of the U.S. military presence.

The new alliance would be led by senior Shiite politician Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who met with President Bush last week. Al-Hakim, however, was not expected to be the next prime minister because he prefers the role of powerbroker, staying above the grinding day-to-day running of the country.

A key figure in the proposed alliance, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, a Sunni Arab, left for Washington on Sunday for a meeting with Bush at least three weeks ahead of schedule.

more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,235779,00.html





http://journals.democraticunderground.com/bigtree

[Buzz Clik]

1. Is this story just so much bullshit? Not saying ... just asking.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x9348

[bigtree]

3. A lot depends on what Maliki actually told Bush

If he gave Bush guff, as he should have, it wouldn't be out of character for the lame-duck loser to work to replace him, or undermine him.

The Hakim meeting with Bush was seen by some as a way to reach out through the Shiite leader to Iran. And, remember, Hadley has already made clear how he feels about Maliki. That has to be part of the Bush stance as well.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

2. I highly doubt...

...that dubya wants the head of SCIRI to be running Iraq. That seems to run counter to their entire hate-everything-to-do-with-Iran stance.

[htuttle]

4. That assumes Bush understands what SCIRI even is

With any other President, I wouldn't even doubt that, but this is Bush we're talking about...he didn't even know there were both Sunni and Shia Muslims until just before the invasion.

:shrug:

[bigtree]

6. It's not so clear, if we assume anyone is thinking at the WH . . .

Hakim's Badr forces have been relied on in attacks on Sadr's Mahdi Army. Maybe he's the only wedge they could find for that problem. Sadr is presumably outside of the government now . . .

What does Bush expect from Hakim? What did he ask him to do?

[necso]

5. Backing al-Hakim

(SCIRI) over al-Sadr, eh?

Interesting call.

(If, indeed, such it is.)

[bigtree]

10. Attempting to Sideline Sadr. NYT:

from War and Piece: http://www.warandpiece.com/blogdirs/005305.html

December 11, 2006

Attempting to Sideline Sadr. NYT:(http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/11/world/middleeast/11cnd-iraq.html?ei=5094&en=faff015e64320ee2&hp=&ex=1165899600&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print)

"Following discussions with the Bush administration, several of Iraq’s major political parties are in talks to form a coalition whose aim is to break the powerful influence of the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr within the government, senior Iraqi officials say. The talks are taking place among the two main Kurdish groups, the most influential Sunni Arab party and an Iranian-backed Shiite party that has long sought to lead the government. They have invited Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki to join them. But Mr. Maliki, a conservative Shiite who has close ties to Mr. Sadr, has held back for fear that the parties might be seeking to oust him, a Shiite legislator close to Mr. Maliki said. ... The Americans, who are frustrated with Mr. Maliki’s political dependence on Mr. Sadr, appear to be working hard to help build the coalition. President Bush met last week in the White House with the leader of the Iranian-backed Shiite party, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, and is to meet this week with the head of the Sunni Arab party, Tariq al-Hashemi. ... The visits of Mr. Hakim and Mr. Hashemi to the White House are directly related to their bid to form a new alliance, a senior Iraqi official said."

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I've recently written about the White House trying to engineer an internal tilt inside the Shia coalition away from Sadr to Hakim:

... The <'status quo plus> plan would be to try to forge a new and more effective Iraqi government coalition that would include the Sunnis, Kurds, and the Shias, while engineering a tilt within Maliki's Shia coalition away from Sadr and toward fellow Shiite leader Ayatollah Abdul Aziz Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and its attendant Badr Brigade militia. (Hakim is scheduled to arrive in Washington next week on an official visit.)...

The "unleash the Shia" option would have the United States back a Shiite coalition that would include SCIRI leader Hakim and his Badr Brigades as the core of an Iraqi Army under the direct control of Prime Minister Maliki. Even as the United States sided with the Shia, Hadley's memo makes clear that the United States would at the same time press Maliki to distance himself from Sadr and his Mahdi army. Note in particular the Hadley memo's language concerning the importance of rapidly expanding the size of, and Maliki's control over, the Iraqi Army: "Seek ways to strengthen Maliki immediately by giving him additional control over Iraqi forces, although we must recognize that in the immediate time frame, we would likely be able to give him more authority over existing forces, not more forces." Further down, Hadley adds, "Ask Casey to develop a plan to empower Maliki, including … more forces under Maliki's command and control." Military sources say the key to this control is the Badr Brigades.

[rodeodance]

7. if happening, then maybe this will be the civil war?

[bigtree]

8. more Bush meddling

can't lead to anything good

[Chimichurri]

9. If they take Maliki out in the form of any kind of coup, Iraq will descend

into even more of mess. All it will do is solidify the idea that the U.S.'s hands are all over their government with no end to our interference in sight. Also, it says the elections were one giant farce - those purple fingers become a mere PR opportunity for Bush. The Iraqi's will have no reason to unify behind it's government even less then they do now. It's ultimately a HUGE mistake.

Don't the Bush geniuses realize Iraq cannot trust their government so long as it's seen as an American puppet regime? Bushco's handling of Iraq is being done with no finesse whatsoever. Bush is like a bull in a china shop.

[Disturbed]

11. A sure sign that Busholini wants Maliki out was

when Maliki was praised by Busholini. Anytime the Asshole praises someone, the axe is coming.