Is a Double Proxy war brewing in Iraq?

[Junkdrawer]

The stakes:

Who controls the world's (second?) largest oil reserves.

The Players:

US/Britain -> Saudi Arabia -> Iraqi Sunnis

---- VS ---

China/Russia -> Iran -> Iraqi Shia

Can you say "plausible deniability"? I knew you could.

[Junkdrawer]

1. Today's disturbing development:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2649199&mesg_id=2649199

[iconoclastic cat]

2. Which is why the US is hosed.

Bush cannot side with the Shia without angering his Saudi patrons. But he can't side with the Sunnis without siding with the insurgents.

Nothing he does from this point forward will make a difference except to make things worse.

[tridim]

3. You forgot Israel

Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US are trying to start WW-III.

[Junkdrawer]

5. Israel would love to see Iran lose, no doubt about that. n/t

[Junkdrawer]

4. From Greg Palast's latest column:

...

And therein lies the danger. Behind the fratricidal fracas in Iraq is something even more dangerous than civil war — a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia over control of Iraq’s pivotal position in OPEC, the oil cartel.

...


http://www.gregpalast.com/the-baker-boys-stay-half-the-course

[seemslikeadream]

6. what is a cornered rat do?

[itsmesgd]

7. How long are we going to pretend to be in the middle?

We cannot keep saying that we are trying to get Iraq on "its" feet. There is no Iraq as it were under Saddam. There are three Iraqs: The kurds in the north (about to get into a war with Turkey), The Sunnis in the middle of the country (with the House of Saud as a backer), and the Shia (who have taken Iran as a "big brother" to help fight off the other bullies- namely us). What will happen when we pick a side? The Iraqi PM has a limited amount of time let before he is ousted. Then we will have to pick a side in a civil war. And by picking a side, we will therefore indirectly advocate and take part in the genocide of a tribe of people.

How long indeed before a full blown proxy war? Good question Junkdrawer.

[Junkdrawer]

8. I've heard the oil is in the North (Kurds) and South (Shia)...

I've always heard that the Sunnis were worried about being frozen out of oil revenues unless there's a Federal oil revenue arrangement.

[itsmesgd]

9. thanks for the correction

I did a sloppy cut paste job

[Junkdrawer]

10. .

[Junkdrawer]

11. .

[burythehatchet]

12. can we get a "gates of hell" smilie?

[Selatius]

13. You forgot Turkey and it's 1,000,000 man army sent to crush the Kurds if Iraq splinters.

Turkey is dead-set on ensuring no Kurds ever declare independence.

[Strelnikov_]

14. Russia's Interest Is To Stir Up Trouble, They Win No Matter What

(Um, short of global thermonuclear war, of course.)

They are the worlds 2nd leading petroleum and top natural gas producer. Think what their reserves will be worth if the Middle East falls into general conflict.

Chindia plans to sit on the sidelines and pick up the former US franchises that fall by the wayside.

On Edit: We seem to be the ones holding few cards, with everything to lose. Thanks, GOP.

[majorjohn]

15. Let Bush be President of Iraq

He'll make a more evil ruler than Saddam.. and that's the way to keep order in Iraq.