The New Middle East Cold War: Saudi/Israel/Lebanon versus Iran/Syria/Iraq/Hizbullah

[leftchick]

http://juancole.com


Helene Cooper with Hassan Fattah of the NYT has the scoop that Saudi King Abdullah told US VP Dick Cheney two weeks ago that if the US withdrew precipitately from Iraq, the kingdom would have little choice but to support the Sunni Arab guerrillas. The Saudi government had pledged to the US not to do so as long as US troops were in Iraq. But it is alleged that Saudi oil millionaires privately already send money to the guerrillas. Saudis, as Wahhabi Muslims, belong to a sect that is to the right of Sunnism. But the Wahhabi tradition dislikes Shiites and in any Sunni-Shiite struggle, the Wahhabis will come in on the Sunni side.

This item is no surprise, of course, and I have brought up this likelihood a number of times myself. What is remarkable is that it is being stated by the Saudi leadership and published in the press. The Saudis are usually circumspect. If they are leaking this sort of thing, their hair must be on fire with anxiety.

Cooper also reports the abrupt and mysterious resignation of Saudi Ambassador to the US Turki al-Faisal after only 22 months in Washington. Prince Turki has been an effective diplomat and has done a lot of outreach work, addressing ordinary American audiences (a style very unlike that of Prince Bandar bin Sultan, his long-serving predecessor). Prince Turki is the only Saudi official I know of publicly to espouse Gandhian principles of non-violence for the Palestinian cause. I met him more than once and was impressed by his humanity and acumen. I'm sorry to see him leave Washington. There are rumors that he is leaving to become foreign minister of the kingdom. If that were the case, I should have thought the promotion would be announced along with his resignation, which he called a "retirement." The way this is being handled looks more to me as though he lost some big policy fight with the establishment in Riyadh. But we shall see.

The Saudis are usually important to the formulation of US policy in the Middle East. W. is now rudderless, with Rumsfeld gone and Cheney neutered by the November elections. Prince Turki's departure in addition to hysteria about a regional guerrilla war in Iraq on the part of the Saudi King are an element of instability in White House policy-making that we could have done without.

[Cooley Hurd]

1. K&R - we're being blackmailed into staying in Iraq...

:grr:

[H2O Man]

2. It would be

a very serious error for people to assume that VP Cheney has been "neutered by the November elections." There is a struggle for positioning that allows for influencing the president. While there are numerous signs that the friends of Bush the Elder are attempting to gain control, there is also evidence that Cheney maintains a fair amount of authority in the president's mind. This is never more true than in periods of instability, such as the administration and the Middle East are experiencing.

[babylonsister]

3. I've surfed CNN and MSNBC; not a word about SA so far and

their threat last night. It's like it never happened. ???

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Voila

http://dailynews.att.net/cgi-bin/news?e=pri&dt=061213&cat=news&st=newsd8lvsv501&src=ap

NEW YORK (AP) - Saudi Arabia has warned it could decide to provide financial support to Iraqi Sunnis if the U.S. pulls its troops out of Iraq, where sectarian violence between the minority Sunnis and majority Iraqi Shiites has threatened to tear apart the country, The New York Times reported.

Saudi Arabia is a majority Sunni country and up to now has promised U.S. officials that it would not intervene to assist Iraq's Sunni insurgency, according to the report, appearing in Wednesday's edition of The Times and citing anonymous American and Arab diplomatic sources.

But that promise might not hold if U.S. troops leave Iraq, the newspaper said. The Bush administration has repeatedly said there are no plans for the immediate pullout of U.S. troops.

The Times reported that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia sent the warning to Vice President Dick Cheney two weeks ago during the vice president's visit to Riyadh. The message also emphasized the kingdom's displeasure with proposed talks between the U.S. government and Iran.


What a mess but a predictable one...

[babylonsister]

9. Thanks. I know it's out there, but the news blackout is what's worrisome. nt

[leftchick]

6. It was mentioned briefly on ABC news this morning

of course no one went into detail with the implications. :eyes:

[babylonsister]

8. I am in total shock that this isn't being splayed everywhere.

Who put the meme out to tone it down/out? This is so grave and important, but it's being ignored???

[wuushew]

4. Is the Saudi angle what is delaying Bush's speech on Iraq?

I am guessing something tectonic happened behind closed doors to push back Bush's blather on a new Iraq strategy. From news reports nothing obvious has changed on the ground in Iraq. So why the delay?

[babylonsister]

7. I'm sure it has a lot to do with it. This is a thread from last night:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2650432