when compared to hydrogen.
Battery electric is a mature technology, proven affordable, with demonstrated improvement in range possible following engineering refinement of recent battery advances. Fuel cells are unproven as a consumer product, with new research breakthroughs required to make them affordable.
Electricity is, well, everywhere. Hydrogen will require construction of a completely new distribution infrastructure.
So, the answer is clear. Hydrogen. After all, Big Oil has to have something to do once the oil runs out.
I can envision a future of FCV/EV hybrids. That is, a generation of small, efficient EV's with a range of, say, 100 mi. For the times extended range is required, this can be supplied by a small fuel cell mounted on a trailer (rental?). Since the cell will only have to supply 'average' power demand, a much smaller cell than that required for a pure FCV vehicle would be possible. Since it is used only occasionally, the inefficiency of ethanol fuel cells would be acceptable, thus bypassing the need for gaseous H2.
In the interim before (if?) the FC generator trailers are cost effective, a conventional IC liquid-fueled generator trailer could be used.
We need to transition to EV’s, today. The past problem with EV’s, the public perception that a PV (personal vehicle) with ‘unlimited’ range is mandatory, will evaporate with the first shocks. In other words, a liquid fueled IC PV is not ‘unlimited’ when there is a 10 gal./wk. ration (or would us liberals prefer rationing by price?).
If FC’s ever become cost effective, it will be relatively easy to slip-stream them into an EV paradigm. Further, the EV’s produced today should be modular allowing easy upgrading to more advanced battery technologies, of even a small FC pack, as they become available.
In the energy starved future, I just don’t see how pure FCV’s will be preferred over the more efficient, and simpler, EV’s.
Carrying the Energy Future
Comparing Hydrogen and Electricity for Transmission, Storage and Transportation
Patrick Mazza and Roel Hammerschlag
June 2004
http://www.ilea.org/articles/CEF.html http://www.ilea.org/downloads/MazzaHammerschlag.pdf (.pdf)
Advanced EVs gain substantially more useful work than FCVs with the same amount of electrical energy. Using calculations from remote and localized electrolysis scenarios reported above, 38-54% of original source energy emerges from a vehicle fuel cell to propel the vehicle. By comparison, advanced batteries operate at cycle efficiencies of 87% or better. The remainder of the electric energy brought to the battery is lost as heat during charging or through self-discharge when the vehicle is allowed to stand unused for long periods of time. Assuming losses of 8% of the original electricity between generation and delivery to the vehicle, 80% of original source energy emerges from the battery. Fuel cells and batteries feed functionally identical electric drive trains, so the 80% battery cycle efficiency and 38-54% fuel cell efficiency are directly comparable.
. . .
Though the drive trains of FCVs and EVs can be nearly identical, EVs will suffer an efficiency penalty during acceleration because the batteries are heavier than the hydrogen fuel tanks. Direct modeling of EV drive train efficiency shows that this penalty is probably much less than detractors of EVs like to postulate. For instance Delucchi & Lipman calculate that a 480-kilometer EV weighing 1,700 kg (of which 510 kg are due to the battery) specified to accelerate from 0 to 60 in 9.3 seconds, still handily achieves more than seven times the fuel-to-kilometers efficiency of a gasoline car with equivalent performance. Delucchi, Mark, and Timothy Lipman. "An Analysis of the Retail and Lifecycle Cost of Battery-Powered Electric Vehicles." Transportation Research Part D 6 (2001): 371-404.
. . .
The EV’s clear, current advantage over the FCV is that the EV can be brought to market immediately. Even today's limited-production EVs are already capable of meeting most daily driving needs. Solectria’s Force, having a curb weight of only 1,100 kilograms with nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries is specified with a range of 140-160 kilometers. The RAV4 EV with NiMH batteries is specified at 200 kilometers. Nissan’s Altra EV, using lithium ion batteries, claims 190 kilometers. Brooks compares a Ford Focus FCV with a concept EV based on an altered Toyota Prius, powered purely by Li-ion batteries. The Focus has 320-kilometers range and a curb weight of 1,600 kg, the Prius 220-320 kilometers with a curb weight of 1,300 kg. Refueling the Focus requires the equivalent of 860 MJ, the Prius 140 MJ. Adding batteries to the Prius to bring its weight to that of the Focus would raise the driving range to 640 kilometers.
. . .
EVs can offer twice the useful work from the same electrical energy as ReH2-powered FCVs. A fleet of 10,000 FCVs might consume between 250 and 360 TJ of electricity each year. The same fleet of battery electric cars would consume 180 TJ. Advanced battery technologies hold solid potential to substantially overcome range limitations that have held back EV acceptance. PHEVs offer an option that merges the best of EVs, including very high efficiency, with the unlimited ranges and rapid fueling time of HEVs. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.
Hirsch, Bezdek, Wendling, February 2005
www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf (.pdf)
. . .
The Department of Energy is currently conducting a high profile program aimed at developing a “hydrogen economy.” DOE’s primary emphasis is on hydrogen for light duty vehicle application (automobiles and light duty trucks). Recently, the National Research Council (NRC) completed a study that included an evaluation of the technical, economic and societal challenges associated with the development of a hydrogen economy. (National Research Council. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers and R & D Needs. National Academies Press. 2004.) That study is the basis for the following highlights.
A lynchpin of the current DOE hydrogen program is fuel cells. In order for fuel cells to compete with existing petroleum-based internal combustion engines, particularly for light duty vehicles, the NRC concluded that fuel cells must improve by 1) a factor of 10-20 in cost, 2) a factor of five in lifetime, and 3) roughly a factor of two in efficiency. The NRC did not believe that such improvements could be achieved by technology development alone; instead, new concepts (breakthroughs) will be required. In other words, today’s technologies do not appear practically viable. Because of the need for unpredictable inventions in fuel cells, as well as viable means for on-board hydrogen storage, the introduction of commercial hydrogen vehicles cannot be predicted.
. . .
In the 1990s electric automobiles were introduced to the market, spurred by a California clean vehicle requirement. The effort was a failure because existing batteries did not provide the vehicle range and performance that customers demanded. In the future, electricity storage may improve enough to win consumer acceptance of electric automobiles. In addition, extremely high gasoline prices may cause some consumers to find electric automobiles more acceptable, especially for around-town use. Such a shift in public preferences is unpredictable, so electric vehicles cannot now be projected as a significant offset to future gasoline use.