Stalingrad on the Tigris? Read this and weep...

[scarletwoman]

Stalingrad on the Tigris?

Below you will find a Power Point (what else?) presentation on the recent AEI analytic meeting run by one of the Kagans. The cast of contributers at the end reads very much like one of the great neocon "papers" done up before their return to power under Bush 41'. I have in mind the "Clean Break" paper which contained so much of "future history. The military men listed among the supposed authors are a mystery to me. I know who some of them are but I question how much they really understood what was going to be said in their names.

The paper urges a "surge" of many thousands more US troops into Baghdad beginning in March, 2007 for one more grand roll of the iron dice. The concept seems to be based on the notion that Shia militias exist because of Sunni violence against them rather than as expressions of a Shia drive to political dominance in Iraq. Based on that belief the authors seem to believe that if the additional US and Iraqi forces to be employed in the Capital area defeat (destroy?) the Sunni insurgent groups, then the Shia militia armies will "wither away" from a lack of need. I do not think that belief is justified.

The authors assert that contrary to General Schoomaker's appraisal below in"State of the Army," such a surge will not "break the Army."

<snip>

The carnage implicit in this concept would be appalling. The authors have much to say about the consequences of defeat in Iraq, but, I wonder if they have contemplated what it would be like to fail in their climactic battle and still be required by '43 to stay in Iraq. pl

You really ought to read this post in its entirety, and read the comments as well. I'm unfortunately not sure how many DUers are interested in paying close and serious attention to the Iraq agression, but -- for myself -- I can't think of anything that is more important to the future of our own country -- not to mention the future of the entire Middle East, our petroleum economy, and the balance of power all over the globe.

But maybe that's just me...

sw

[Erika]

1. If your point is that W wants to continue the Iraq war to maximize

the profits to his corporate friends, the point is made.

[scarletwoman]

2. My "point" was to encourage DUers to read what was posted at the link I provided.

My hope is that people will click on that link and do some reading.

sw

[slipslidingaway]

3. K&R . Thanks n/t

[bananas]

4. The surge is supposed to last for "one year or so"?

For some reason I thought the surge was only for a few months.
This says it will be at least a year.

[BrotherBuzz]

9. One year beginning in March, 2007

The surge looks to ends just as the US primary election season begins, no?

[bananas]

41. "At least 30K Army and Marines per year for the next two years"

Page 39 of the pdf:

The Ground Forces Must Grow
• The President must request a substantial
increase in active duty ground forces
– At least 30K Army and Marines per year for the next
two years
– Vital to offset increased demands on the ground
forces in Iraq
– Vital to provide strategic options in many scenarios
beyond Iraq
– Increases must be permanent
– The President must call for young Americans to
volunteer to defend the nation in a time of crisis

[necso]

5. "Resident Scholar,

The American Enterprise Institute"

What exactly does that take?

Three box-tops and a six-pack?

A viagra prescription?

...

And when will these clowns learn the difference between military forces and "asses-in-the-grasses" combat (policing) forces.

...

These idiots are determined to strike al-Sadr. Questionable "strategery".

[The Magistrate]

6. That Thing Makes For Sad Reading, Ma'am

It is not a plan: it is a wish list, compiled in the hope Murphy is on extended sabbatical...

In all instances, the possible reaction labeled 'most dangerous' will occur, and the actions proclaimed as 'counters' to this will fail to address, or even much mitigate, the consequences of the hostile response most likely to occur.

But the worst thing is, it is what is going to be done: you may depend upon that.

It will not, however, be an unmitigated disaster. It will be a hugely unpopular action, stripping the reactionary clique that is the modern Republican Party of the last shred of pretence it accepts democratic institutions in the United States, and will stamp it irrevocably with the mark of disasterous failure abroad. The people do not want this: they will get it anyway, and they will not like it....

"'One more time, boys,' the officers said, 'And it's ours!' They said it in April. They said it in May, and in June. In July they did not say it any more."

[LynnTheDem]

7. "surge" = fatal mistake.

After that will come the rightwingnut wailing cry of "Who could have forseen??!"

[Swamp Rat]

8. Power Point presentations have replaced critical writing and thinking,

like TV infotainment has replaced journalism.

Stick a fork in America... :eyes:

edit: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[necso]

10. I suspect that some of these "great works"

are originally done in crayon.

Then maybe they get one of the less technically-ignorant neocon-"Illuminati" to "do it up proper".

[xchrom]

11. k&r -- i firmly believe that more troops in iraq is in our

future.

beyond the insanity that the u.s. has created in iraq -- there is teh financila reality that will come home to roost when this is all said and done.

i believe that the neocon misadventure in iraq is going a long, long way to building a massive financial fiasco for our country.

we simply cannot afford this.

[Warren Stupidity]

12. Surge is the word.

It seems the deciderer has deciderated on surgification. I feel so sorry for the Iraqi people. I feel completely helpless about the crimes being committed in my name. I am fucking outraged.

[leftchick]

13. Juan Cole on the "Surge" Architects......

and why their plan sucks just like the occupation plan sucks....

http://www.juancole.com/

<snip>

The fact is that if provincial elections were held today, the Sadr Movement would sweep to power in all the Shiite provinces (with the possible exception of Najaf itself). It is increasingly the most popular political party among Iraq's Shiite majority. For the US to cut the Sadrists out of power in parliament and then fall on them militarily would just throw Iraq into turmoil. It would increase the popularity of the Sadrists, and ensure that they gain nationalist credentials that will ensconce them for perhaps decades.

The "surge" tactic is being generated by Rupert Murdoch's Weekly Standard and by Frederick W. Kagan and Bill Kristol, i.e. by the same plutocratic American Enterprise Institute (Likudnik Central) that brought you the Iraq War with champagne toasts in the first place.

Kagan has a recent book on Napoleon. Napoleon's most prominent characteristic was his willingness to waste his troops' lives lightly. On his return from Palestine in 1799, he even had some poisoned because they were ill with plague and he did not want to risk transporting them back to his HQ in Cairo. He took 54,000 men to Egypt in 1798; about half came back. His Russia campaign saw a similar dynamic, on a much larger scale.

Bush is the Napoleon of our age, trampling on whole peoples, a Jacobin Emperor mouthing the slogans of liberty and popular sovereignty while crushing and looting those he "liberated." And Kagan and Kristol (playing Talleyrand 1798) and Emperor Bush are readying a further slaughter of our US troops, 24,000 of whom have been killed or wounded, and of innocent Iraqis, 600,000 of whom have been killed by criminal and political violence since spring of 2003.

And you thought a mere election would make a difference. No one had to elect the American Enterprise Institute. No one needs to crown the emperor, he can do it himself. Welcome to Year 1 of the Empire.

[chimpymustgo]

15. leftchick, this deserves its own thread. Thanks for posting! nt

nt

[necso]

16. Our first "encounter"

with al-Sadr appears to have helped him gain power and popularity.

Another "encounter" promises the same. And even if we kill him, his movement may gain power after him. In any event, going after him (and his fighters, however loyal these really are) promises to rile-up many Shia.

Neocons are dangerous, delusional dimwits. They could scarcely do more harm if they were working for al-Qaeda. Indeed, since they typically screw up whatever they're trying to do (bullshitting/manipulating/exploiting other buffoons aside), they'd probably do less harm if they were working for al-Qaeda.

[Morgana LaFey]

17. Here's an actual link to that

so people don't have to search for it:

http://www.juancole.com/2006/12/how-republicans-are-stealing-november.html

[leftchick]

18. it wasn't hard to find

I certainly had no problem finding it.

[Morgana LaFey]

19. touchy, touchy, eh?

And I prefer to go right to the article, not search or scroll down at all. YMMV.

[leftchick]

20. I am not touchy

nor am I picky when someone is kind enough to provide me a link. :eyes:

[eridani]

36. You will a week from now

Give everyone a break and use the permalink.

[westerebus]

22. Carrying John M cain's folly to the deep end of the pool.

This is the same Weekly Standard that helped defeat George Allen's bid for reelection after coming on board for John M cain. Still power politics for the neocon friends of Bushchenny, they sold Allen out to give M cain a clear path in the 08 run at the WH.
A surge of 20-40 thousand troops simply complicates the military's operation in Iraq. That was the point Abazaid was trying to make. We can fight but not HOLD real estate for an indefinite amount of time. That is not what our military does. Quick,short,crushing warfare that over whelms and destroys; not something most americans want to dwell on.
The Saudis are calling for jihad against the Shia to include Iran. The fundamentalists on both sides including ours see the gates of heaven opening for the true believers. Ours guys are right in the middle.
Get the troops OUT! Get them out NOW!

[scarletwoman]

24. Thanks for pointing out Juan Cole's take on this.

Juan Cole and Pat Lang are my top two absolutely essential websites for gathering the highest quality information and commentary on the situation in Iraq.

Imho, the more people turned on to these two sites, the better.

Thanks again,
sw

[leftchick]

30. he testified before a congresional committee last week

chaired by reps. Paul and Kucinich. It was an excellent two hours and Juan pointed out over and over again how the Lancet study of at least 650,000 dead Iraqis since 2003 was as accurate as it could get.

I agree he is one of the best for slicing through the disinformation daily.

:)

[scarletwoman]

35. I hope for the day when Juan Cole will be given the Medal of Freedom.

Will this country ever achieve sanity? Thank Goddess for those like Juan Cole and Pat Lang who continually speak out for sanity. Can you imagine how much more horrible this all would be without them?!?!

:hug:
sw

[enough]

14. That's a very interesting site, as well.

Thanks for posting this.

[cool user name]

29. About the Author:

This guy is quite impressive:

Biography

Colonel W. Patrick Lang is a retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces (The Green Berets). He served in the Department of Defense both as a serving officer and then as a member of the Defense Senior Executive Service for many years. He is a highly decorated veteran of several of America’s overseas conflicts including the war in Vietnam. He was trained and educated as a specialist in the Middle East by the U.S. Army and served in that region for many years. He was the first Professor of the Arabic Language at the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York. In the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) he was the “Defense Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, South Asia and Terrorism,” and later the first Director of the Defense Humint Service.” For his service in DIA, he was awarded the “Presidential Rank of Distinguished Executive.” This is the equivalent of a British knighthood. He is an analyst consultant for many television and radio broadcasts.

[scarletwoman]

31. Thanks. This is why I keep trying to steer serious DUers to this site.

Most of my previous posts that have referenced Pat Lang's site have sunk out of sight quite quickly. I keep trying, anyway.

I found Sic Semper Tryannis from a link posted in the comments at Juan Cole's site back during the Israeli bombing of Lebanon this past summer. It's been a must-read ever since. I've even commented there myself (under my real name) and just recently got a direct reply from Col. Lang, himself -- which pleased me no end, I must admit. (He likes me! He really likes me!)

And it's not just Col. Lang. Some of the regular commenters there are incredibly astute. With Pat Lang monitoring all the comments, you know that he only lets through those which add value to the discussion. It's a true oasis of intelligent analysis.

sw

[cool user name]

32. You've got me hooked and I thank you for it.

:hi:

;)

[scarletwoman]

34. Heh, heh. The first one's free...

:evilgrin:

sw

[NMDemDist2]

37. i read Sic Semper daily now, thanks to you

it's on my "quicklink" bar on Firefox along with the local weather etc

so more people than you realize are checking out Col. Lang thanks to your link

[scarletwoman]

38. Excellent! The collective counter-propaganda immune system is growing!

:D

sw

[The Magistrate]

21. This Deserves Continued Attention, Ma'am

"If everything looks like its going well, you're walking into an ambush."

[scarletwoman]

23. Thank you so much for the kick!

Sunday is a work day for me, so I have been unable to attend to this thread until now. I am very glad that you have found this deserving of "continued attention".

Much appreciated,
sw

[Disturbed]

25. The Fiasco shall continue.

The Dems dare not to cut off the $ Spigot.

[Trajan]

26. There is no difference between AEI and PNAC ....

They share the same associations and they share the same building ....

The same ideas, the same ideologies and the same hatred of humanity ....

I would ask them: WHY do you not seek peace talks ? ...

WHY is it you HATE peace ? .....

These dangerous fools should have already been publically hectored and harangued by our representatives, marginalized and sidelined forever for their complicity in this horrendous usurpation of the public trust ....

[scarletwoman]

27. There's no profit for the Ruling Class in peace. (nt)

[cool user name]

28. Thanks, Scarletwoman ... take a look at this comment:

From Vietnam Vet:


The surge lands my old brigade in Northern Baghdad after tours in Mosul and Southern Afghanistan.

PowerPoint leaves out a few details: the Shiite militia will join Sunni insurgents fighting the occupation; Baghdad will be flattened in front of Al Jazeera’s cameras, and the fighting will cause millions of Iraqi casualties and refuges.

The basic premise of embedding Americans in Iraqi units is that they want to be little Americans just like their trainers. No way. Not when every family has casualties caused by the Americans and their religion, Islam, is the one true religion.

In Ramadi, grunts can only move into FOBs at night. The Sunnis have taken the day away from US troops.

When the surge troops attack the Madhi militia, all of Iraq will be fighting the Americans. Embedding will be pointless; day and night will belong to the Iraqis.

Do we have any war scholars here that has any input on the above?

[scarletwoman]

33. Oh, believe me -- I read ALL the comments. Some of the links that show up are amazing!

I check into Sic Semper Tyrannis everyday. Usually several times a day to keep up with the comments.

sw

[al bupp]

39. Just doing my part to keep this important thread kicked

Thanks for the heads-up to Sic Semper Tyrannis.

[scarletwoman]

40. Thank YOU for kicking this thread! (nt)