(This is an excellent read in full and the comment section, too.)
Should We Worry About the Saudi Threats?
By Vali Nasr | bio
These are nervous times for Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom appears to have thrown its customary caution to the wind. In Opinion pieces, through leaks and in face-to-face talks with the Vice President who was hastily summoned to Riyadh, Saudis are expressing their deep frustration with the turn of events. Their long investment in Lebanon is coming undone, Iraq is breaking up into a hostile Shia unite and a potentially troublesome Sunni “al-Qaedaland”, both sharing borders with the Kingdom. More worrisome, the Shia-Sunni conflict in Iraq has somehow metamorphosed into a broader Saudi-Iranian competition at a time when Iran seems to hold most of the cards—in Iraq and Lebanon, and over the Palestinian issue. Iran is emerging as a hegemon with nuclear capability at a time when U.S. staying power in the region is open to question. Saudis fear an aggressive Iran, but perhaps fear even more an opening in US-Iran relations—which would then confirm Iranian status in the Persian Gulf and relegate them to second-class regional status. Not a surprise that King Abdullah has objected to U.S.-Iran talks.
The Kingdom’s response to this depressing turn of events has been uncharacteristically risky. First Riyadh reached out to Tel Aviv in the hope of putting together an anti-Iranian front. Then Riyadh bluntly threatened to use the oil weapon against Iran, and finally, upped the ante by threatening to support the Sunni insurgency in Iraq if the U.S. were to hastily withdraw its troops. The threat is a surprise and a worry. To begin with, it undermines the stated U.S. policy these days that the best way to get the attention of Iraqi leaders is to threaten them with leaving. Saudis seems to be signaling that the insurgents need not worry; Riyadh will come to their help. But beyond running at cross purposes with Washington rhetoric on Iraq, the Saudi strategy runs in the face of America’s commitment to the war on terror. All Saudi Arabia has to offer is funding jihadis!
More at.........
http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/americaabroad/2006/dec/18/should_we_worry_about_the_saudi_threats