Double Up To Catch Up

[DaveT]

There's a metaphor kicking around the political culture this season -- the idea of "Doubling Down" with our military operations in Iraq. This phrase comes from the mysterious game of blackjack, a betting option under certain circumstances. Devotees of blackjack have pointed out that the term is being misused in this circumstance, because you double down when you think the odds favor you.



What the ISG and other solemn keepers of the flame of American "power" are really talking about is placing a sucker bet -- to double up to catch up. When you are on a losing streak, you start to think that the law of averages HAS to turn in your favor -- so you raise your bet, mainly because winning a single small bet would still leave you in the hole.

So, what we see coming next spring is a gamble that Bush was unwilling to make in August of 2004 when we launched an offensive in the city of Najaf with the publicly stated objective of arresting Moqtada Al Sadr and destroying his Mehdi Army. Bush folded his hand when, after a couple of weeks of fighting, a deal was engendered by Grand Ayatollah Ali Husseini al-Sistani who organized a peaceful march of the faithful into the line of fire between the Americans and the Mehdi Army. Rather than reckon with the consequences of shooting up Sistani's demonstration, the offensive was called off, and Sadr returned to Baghdad where he remains today, more powerful than ever.

This time around, we will not be fighting him in a single mosque -- we will be in a street fight within the city of Baghdad. Air power and armor would give our troops a realistic chance of winning a shootout with Sadr's irregular forces, but at the cost of destoying the city scape, as in Fallujah.

I would expect the Joint Chiefs (as well as anybody not high on crack) to regard that as a foolish option. There are several million inhabitants of Baghdad, and if they decide, en masse, to repeat Sistani's strategy, the Green Zone itself would be in serious jeopardy.



In the casino, you can guarantee yourself a $1,000 day, if you simply bet a grand on red at the roulette wheel; if you lose, bet $2,000, and you still go home up a thousand; if you lose that bet, place a $4,000 bet, and you'll still win . . . .

Eventually, it HAS to come up red. Well, this doesn't necessarily work in Vegas because the the House puts a betting limit on its tables, to keep this from happening.

A guy like Bush has never had to look into the abyss of an empty pocket. There's always been more money there to stay in the game, letting him double up to catch up.


We have a few months before this madness unfolds. As bad as everything we have already seen has been, this will be worse.

We need to plan on marching on Washington to sort things out with this ultimate loser.

[AndyA]

1. Bush is going to have to get a resounding "NO!" from Congress

before he gets it. The American people told him NO in November, but typically, he has chosen to ignore our wishes. He wants to keep dumping tons of money we don't have to spend, send more troops over there to be killed, and then leave office as scheduled just when everything over there is so bad, there's no hope whatsoever for anything resembling peace.

George Bush has screwed up EVERYTHING he's ever touched. Go back as far as you want, there have been no successes that weren't bought and paid for with family money. HE'S DONE NOTHING ON HIS OWN.

George Bush is a small little man, with a huge ego and an abundance of arrogance. He is incurious and has a communication problem. Just the qualities we don't need in a President.

IMPEACH! Investigate the bastard and IMPEACH has ass!!

[Systematic Chaos]

2. That system is called the Small Martingale.

Right about now, I'm wondering why? If he were around today, would he drive a hummer to compensate? :evilgrin:

[DaveT]

3. What is the Big Martindale?

I'd never heard that term to describe the doubling up strategy.


Meanwhile, the news conference today had Shrub mentioning the obvious question, without answering it -- what would the surge do?