Iran oil profits could dry up by 2015

[Don_1967]

-- Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could disappear by 2015, a National Academy of Sciences analysis found.
Full Story:http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/12/25/iran.oil.ap/index.html

[Botany]

1. That is o.k. because by then over 1/2 of Iraq will be part of

of the greater Shi ite Republic of Eastern Iran, thanx to W's
bone headed war. (BTW for you lurking Freepers I am only
1/2 kidding). The oil will be run by our great friend A. Chalibi.

[Toots]

2. The declining dollar just escalates their losses

It is no wonder they choose to switch to Euros.....

[Make7]

3. I wonder where they are getting those numbers from.

 

Posted by Don_1967:

"Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could disappear by 2015..."

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/12/25/iran.oil.ap/index.html

Other sources say the exact opposite.

Iran’s oil export revenues have increased steadily, from $32 billion in 2004, to $45.6 billion in 2005, with 2006 estimates at $46.9 billion.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Iran/Background.html

:shrug: Make7

[IDemo]

5. The Energy MisInformation Administration

is also continuing to propagate the highly unlikely figure provided by Saudi Aramco/Arabia of 262 billion barrels of 'proven oil reserves'.

[Make7]

7. At least they provide the sources for that information.

 

Saudi Arabia proven oil reserves

264.211 billion barrels - BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006
266.810 billion barrels - PennWell Corporation, Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 103, No. 47
262.175 billion barrels - Gulf Publishing Company, World Oil, Vol. 227, No.9

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html

What I find highly unlikely is that Iran's oil revenues would be decreasing when the price of their oil has almost doubled since the beginning of 2004. Although it is possible that their production has fallen by more than 50%. Of course the CNN article in the opening post suggests that is far from being the case.

- Make7

[IDemo]

9. These aren't the source of the data itself

They are merely parroting, along with the CIA "Fact"book, what SA's official figure is on proven reserves.

"In 1982, Saudi Arabia stopped allowing their oil and gas data to be scrutinized. Prior to that, outsiders had some access to information on their reserves. When that accessibility was shut down, Saudi proven oil reserves were estimated to be 164.60 billion barrels. I have yet to find a challenge to this number. It seems to be accepted that this number does represent their reserves in 1982. However, in 1990 they mysteriously raised their reserve estimate by 90 billion barrels. Since the data are now hidden from public view, there is obviously a great deal of skepticism regarding this new estimate."

more -> http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/12/21114/589#more

[Make7]

10. Did you post that source as a joke?

From your source:

I decided to try a different approach to see what I came up with, and I came across an amazing statistic. At first I was sure I had made an error. In 1982, Saudi Arabia stopped allowing their oil and gas data to be scrutinized. Prior to that, outsiders had some access to information on their reserves. When that accessibility was shut down, Saudi proven oil reserves were estimated to be 164.60 billion barrels. I have yet to find a challenge to this number. It seems to be accepted that this number does represent their reserves in 1982. However, in 1990 they mysteriously raised their reserve estimate by 90 billion barrels. Since the data are now hidden from public view, there is obviously a great deal of skepticism regarding this new estimate.

So, I started with the assumption that the 1982 estimate of 164.60 billion barrels was correct, and then I just subtracted Saudi production since then. I calculated their total production since 1982 as 69 billion barrels, leaving 95 billion barrels of reserves. This approach would imply either that their 1982 reserves were overstated, or that the models showing Saudi Arabia at 70 billion barrels remaining are in error. (If anyone can find a challenge to the 1982 number, I would appreciate the reference).

But, we know that reserves sometimes legitimately grow, and new discoveries take place. So, I decided to check this approach against what happened in the U.S. over the same time period. I examined U.S. reserves and production from 1982 to 2006. The following data are all pulled from:

U.S. Crude Oil Proved Reserves, Reserves Changes, and Production

In 1982, U.S. reserves were 27.858 billion barrels. In 2005, U.S. reserves were 21.757 billion barrels. So we drew down our reserves by 6 billion barrels. Imagine my shock to discover our production over that time period. What would you guess? Six billion barrels? Ten? In fact, oil production from these reserves since 1982 totals 56.9 billion barrels! Amazingly, in the past 24 years we have produced 57 billion barrels of oil and pulled our reserves down by only 6 billion barrels. That seems incredible, but it appears that this is what has happened.

So, the conclusion is that the method I tried to apply to Saudi reserves was falsified when I applied it to U.S. reserves, but I was surprised at the amount of oil produced by the U.S. since 1982. So I still don't have a clue as to how much oil Saudi Arabia actually has. If their reserves followed similar behavior to U.S. reserves, then they could still be sitting on > 150 billion barrels.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/12/21114/589#more

So you select a source that admits that he has no clue as to how much oil Saudi Arabia actually has. Is that the figure that you suggest be reported by the Energy Information Administration, "NO CLUE"?

You post a source that can't even get the year right for when Saudi Arabia increased it oil reserves?

Be serious.

Should I interpret your lack of comment regarding Iranian oil revenues as an acknowledgment that they are increasing?

- Make7

[AValdoux]

4. What about OPEC?

Doesn't OPEC control the amount of Iranian oil on the market? They've had Iran on a limited amount of production for years. Couldn't they just say screw OPEC and up their production? Why was this story released anyway?


AValdoux

[JackORoses]

6. what BS

that oil isn't going anywhere and will only become more valuable as we continue on our wasteful course to Peak

[lakeguy]

8. the price of oil doubles in a few years and they are

losing money? right. i didn't think they were even pumping at capacity.