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What expired at the end of that rope was not just the tyrant Saddam Hussein but also the secular nationalist movement in the middle east. What was buried in Tikrit was not just Saddam Hussein but pan-arabism itself.
What has replaced the nationalists are the islamists. Oddly, the great facilitator in this now almost total defeat of secular nationalism in the arab world has been none other than our own government and its allies. Our policies over the last 25 years, intentionally or not, have almost consistently aided the islamic forces in the arab world.
When we intervened in Afghanistan in the 80's we did so by funding and supporting islamic militias. It is generally thought that, for example, Osama bin Laden got his start at least indirectly aided by our own CIA. The blowback from Afghanistan has been the transformation of that country into an islamist stronghold and a breeding ground for jihadist movements.
The Iran-Iraq war presents a more complicated picture. In a nutshell the US played both sides of the conflict, aiding Iraq and Iran frequently at the same time up until 1986 when, its double dealing uncovered by the Iran Contra scandal, Washington tilted completely toward Iraq. Our objectives seemed to have been to bleed both sides dry and to convince the gulf states to grant us basing rights in their territories.
Our ally Israel has, intentionally or not, managed to eliminate almost completely the secular nationalist arab factions in both the occupied territories and Lebanon. Her policies have directly resulted in the emergence of islamic factions as the dominant political and military forces in those regions. The deliberate isolation and humiliation of Arafat and Fatah had the obvious consequences: Hamas and other islamist factions have become dominant amoung Palestinians. Israel's 25 year and counting misadventures in Lebanon have transformed the once neutral shiite community there into the Hezbollah lead nightmare that it is for Israel today. Once again secular nationalism has been, intentionally or not, sacrificed in favor of islamist factions.
The long 12 year siege of Iraq after Gulf Farce I, followed by the toppling of the Hussein regime and subsequent failed occupation of Iraq in Gulf Farce II eliminated the last arab nationalist regime of any military significance from the region. Replacing the Baathist regime are the islamist militias, shiite and sunni. Only the secular nationalist Kurdish militias present any alternative to islamist rule in the region.
Mubarak of Egypt, Kadaffi of Lybia, and Assad of Syria cling to power but each is struggling against their own Islamist forces. The corrupt ruling families of the gulf states, now all hopelessly entangled with the despised US government, cling to power that may, like the nationalist regimes of Egypt Lybia and Syria, not outlast the lives of their current leaders.
Bin Laden and the Islamists could not have asked for a better outcome. They enter 2007 with the entire Arab world teetering on the edge of a regional cataclysm that may very well usher in the Islamic future they could only dream of when the twin towers fell.
Heck of a job Georgie, heck of a job.
Happy new year.
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