Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz

[ECH1969]

Iranian president Mohammad Ahmadinejad is evaluating an all out military response, including closing the Strait of Hormuz, if Iran is attacked by US-led Western powers for its WMD programme.

Iran also threatened retaliation against any country providing the US with bases or other means to launch its military campaign.

Though Iran’s WMD programme has provoked no action in the UN Security Council but some debates in the IAEA, Ahmadinejad is preparing for military retaliation.

http://www.sulekha.com/news/nhc.aspx?cid=443851

[Fredda Weinberg]

1. The US has promised to keep the waterway open

and to protect shipping there.

[Solo_in_MD]

5. It is international waters and

the right of free passage needs to be maintained.

[Coastie for Truth]

9. The Rule of the Corfu Channel Arbitration is applicable

Can't close it.

[SoCalDem]

15. Au contraire, they CAN close it. It won't be legal,

but that won't stop them if they decide to do it. They are already on the Axis-of-Evil Hit Parade, and Bush is threatening them daily, so if they already think there will be war, why not do it on THEIR timetable?

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. THEIR TIMETABLE: Exactly

As the Stones once said: Time is on their side.

They will want to push shit to the breaking point sooner rather than later. That will prevent the whole US media machine from tuning the thing up properly (as they've been endeavoring to do for the past 6 weeks) and it will fuck up logistics but good, especially with the US military so ridiculously stretched. If I was in the Navy in the Persian Gulf, I'd be damned worried, believe that.

[tatertop]

20. I wish I could bet some DU folks BIG money on this

They are going to fuck so hard
it will hurt me.
Anyone who thinks they cannot keep that waterway all tied up
spends way too much time reading comic books.

[renter]

41. tatertop, if you are honest, I'll take your bet...

1.Iran cannot and willnot close the Straight of Hormuz.

2.They donot have the ability to do this.

3.How much money do you wish to donate to my charity?

[Coastie for Truth]

21. You are right they can close the Straits of Hormuz

<>
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The Corfu Channel Case says:
1. It can be re-opened by force.
2. Iran would be responsible for damages.

That's how Navies and Coast Guards earn their salary. We reopen international waters by force.

"Coastie"

Lieutenant, United States Coast Guard (Honorable Discharge)

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[High Plains]

29. So, what about those Sunburn missiles?

I'm asking 'cause I'm no missile expert.

[renter]

42. Good morning, High Plains. Your not a "drifter" are you?

The site below is a decent, general military info. site.
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/moskit.htm
As you can see, the Sunburn is a large and heavy missile, not easily concealed. Any Iranian ship that carries it would be sunk, and it takes a large truck and access to at least a dirt road to move it around. It also uses radar to find it's target. Ships will "see" the radar first, this downgrades the speed advantage. Much like seeing someone shine a flashlight in the dark. You may not see the individual, but you know where they are by backtracking the beam of light. Not a realistic threat.

[Warren Stupidity]

46. We were unable to locate or prevent Iraq's scuds from being used

in gulf farce-I. Despite all of our high tech smart gear the Iraqis were able to keep their scuds concealed, move them around, and fire them pretty much at will.

Iran will not be shooting at our naval vessels, at least not primarily. They will take out some number of large oil tankers, and if they take them out in the right spots the straight will quickly become impassable to tankers.

As for the legality: once we attack Iran, questions of legality become irrelevant. They will do what they have to do to defend themselves, and economic warfare directed right at our main economic vulnerability would appear to be their best bet. The other very likely scenario is that Iraq turns into a Maelstrom of violence.

[wuushew]

54. I agree, the radars would be harder to hide than the missiles

and much easier to destroy. As it is now any missile with a range greater than Iran's ability to see the horizon is not be useful as a weapon system. A surprise use in the narrow strait would show their ability well, but the U.S. Navy going into such a defense would simply peel back the various layers of Iranian air and sea defenses as they get closer.

I think mining the strait would provide better bang for the buck. No commercial tanker captain is going risk his ship on the American word that the waterway is safely cleared before an end of any hostilities and by that time the West would already start economically rotting from high energy prices.

h(2R + h) = D2



http://www-spof.gsfc.nasa.gov/stargaze/Shorizon.htm
http://www.boatsafe.com/kids/distance.htm

[Massacure]

58. The straits are only 12 miles wide. You could easily see across it.

A good pair of binoculars is the only thing you need to spot ships. Turn the radar on for 10 seconds, fire and missiles active seeker takes over. The missile could reach its target in under 30 seconds.

[wuushew]

64. In order to see 12 miles you would need a radar elevated 100 feet

above sea level. A radar tower that large would be easily destroyed. Unless the Iranians have prominent cliffs with protective caves directly on the shore the targeting problem is not as simple as you make it out to be.

[Massacure]

84. How sure are you?

A person can see about sqrt( 3*h/2) miles. Iran has elevation that is at least 500 feet tall. That means they could see 15 miles no problem. A good pair of binoculars would allow them to see across the straits. I'm suprised you said a radar only needs to be 100 feet. It seems to be rather low.

Links I used:
?PHPSESSID=e728cc7cef1b5465f698f1e155ae420e
http://mathcentral.uregina.ca/QQ/database/QQ.09.03/judy1.html

Care to tell me why you disagree with this?

[Coastie for Truth]

44. Looking Glass and AWACS "Look down" capability

Plus there is a "Cat's Eye" satellite (detects motion).

There is no "ultimate weapon" - there is always a defense or counter weapon.

[Pavulon]

60. We used it

as a drone to test and design weapon systems against.

[jpak]

85. I think the "Sunburn" threat is overblown

I really don't think they have any.

Iran has a dozen or so Chinese-made missile boats (none with Sunburn), 3 Kilo-class subs that are not currently seaworthy, and maybe some land based Silkworms/Seersuckers, but they are not a real threat to the US Navy.

The real threats to tanker traffic are mines, North Korean supplied semi-submersible attack craft, North Korean supplied mini-subs and dozens of small fast attack boats operated by the Revolutionary Guards.

They only have to attack a few tankers to shut down oil shipments from the Gulf.

But hey, maybe ChimpCo will escort re-flagged tankers like they did during the Iran-Iraq War?????

(but we won't talk about the Stark)....

[wuushew]

18. How can lethal force be justified in the name of material things?

Lets say Iran mined the strait and did not actually fire on civilian shipping. Since the only way to clear the strait would be to murder Iranian sailors one can only conclude that certain cargoes like oil have a value equal or greater than that of a human life.

Why does violence need to be used in the name of trade when passive measures like diplomacy, sanctions or loss of inducements can be tried without the chance of losing human life?

[Godai Kyoko]

24. If the iranians are blocking the strait, they have started a war

And it just depends on how anxious everyone else is to finish it, and on what terms.

Pretty much if you saw someone coming in a neighbor's bedroom window, and you heard them crying for help. I think the rule is you are obligated to come and protect the neighbor and use any force at your disposal

[wuushew]

26. the U.S. would be doing the equivalent of shooting a burglar

for stealing a tv. I don't agree with the burglar, but lethal force should only be in the direct preservation of human life. The ships are carrying oil, not humanitarian food relief for a hypothetical famine. If we truly believe in free markets the cost of the goods would increase to reflect the increased risk premium and or transportation costs.

[Messenger]

77. IMHO, Shooting a Burglar is Justifiable but

I don't see what that has to do with coping with a possible closure of the Gulf of Hormuz.

[High Plains]

28. If the Iranians are blocking the strait, it's because the US started

a war. That's what Ahmedinajad said today. If they're attacked.

[Catrina]

32. The US is starting this war, not the Iranians. How can people be falling

for this when they read the PNAC and after the lies and forgeries and crimes committed to get us into Iraq?

Where are those WMDs?????

I can't believe the gullibility of the average person if the polls are correct. Although I have to say that no one I know in real life is fooled by them now.

Iran has every right at this point to whatever it takes to defend their nation, pre-emptively. They watched the 'games' played in the UN re Iraq, they know the plans have been in place for nearly ten years, they've been threatened, bullied and they know it is all a game, that war is inevitable as long as this administration remains in power.

George Bush said to Blair 'Let's provoke a war. Let's paint our planes to look like UN planes and then we'll lie and say he attacked the UN, that ought to get that wimpy UN on board' or words to that effect. And people are falling for this all over again??

I believe NOTHING I read in our media or see on tv (I don't it anymore so that's not a problem), and I would believe not one word uttered by anyone connected to the current administration.

I do believe that everything that is happening is being provoked. How much more evidence do we need than their own words?

If we get into another war, it will be fault of those who allowed themselves to be lied to once, to see that lies, then to hear the same lies again and be fooled again.

[Warren Stupidity]

56. Never underestimate the stupidity of the american people.

However mostly this thread is about if the Iranian military can shut down the strait or not.

My guess is that at least 50% of the public will rally 'round the flag once again as the PNAC Oil War for World Empire moves on to its next target.

I was listening to On the Media this morning while going to fetch the Sunday Bagels. They were talking about how the theocracy in Iran actually likes the internet. Sure they censor the hell out of it, but they also allow quite a bit of stuff to get through, and they encourage people to use it. It seems that if people just sit in their homes and in the cafes and vent via keyboard into the blogosphere, they aren't actually out in the streets causing trouble. Hmmmm... I thought, and muttered out loud to my dog "hey chloe, that could be us". She just looked at me and hoped wistfully that I would leave the car with the bagels in it unattended.

[Solo_in_MD]

78. Mining in international waters is the same

as shooting at the vessels in transit, and is an act of war.

There are ways to clear the sealanes without killing Iranian sailors, but if they died in the process it would be death during combat, not murder.

I agree that peaceful means should be tried first.

[Marr]

39. I don't see why that matters at all.

The Bush Administration has demonstrated very clearly that laws are meaningless. Force is all that matters. They can close it if they can close it.

[oblivious]

2. Well, well! Exactly what quite a few DUers predicted.

[ECH1969]

3. Yup DU predicted it.

[DemInDistress]

4. Big Oil and Opec will love that 130.00 $ a barrel crude,,,

and dont count out China and russian support for Iran.. Its not about nukes, its about the March 26 2006 opening of the Iranian Oil Bourse.. Goodbye US.Dollar, hello Euros. Financial calamity awaits us all..

[joemurphy]

14. I've heard that many times, but I've never had it explained

Can you briefly explain why Iranians selling oil for Euros will wreck our economy. What do Europeans do when Saudis sell it for dollars? I'd just like it explained to me.

[truth2power]

22. Here's a good article..

http://informationclearinghouse.info/article11704.htm

Beating Around the Bush by the Bourse

"Only the uninformed believed Bush when he said it was WMD's that made him attack, invade, occupy and massacre Iraq. Most of us thought it was to steal Iraq's oil, but we were only partly right. What totally terrorized the tyrannical Texan tycoon was when Saddam played the oil bourse card in November, 2000. When Saddam started selling Iraqi oil in euro's, he jeopardized the U.S. dollar's hegemony as the world's supreme foreign exchange transaction currency. If this brilliant idea catches on, it will trigger the total collapse of the USA economy. The oil grab is a sideshow. The main feature is the oil bourse.

The Neocon global domination agenda is engendered by the denomination of global oil transactions in greenbacks. America prints out the bucks that are required for the purchase of oil, and the world has to produce stuff they can sell to get the bucks they need to buy oil. Printing Monopoly 'fiat' money only costs America the paper and green ink, so the USA dollar has been fattened on oil-enriched chicken feed since Tricky Dick delinked the buck from the bullion. The oil bourse scheme could so seriously setback US suzerainty that Saddam got stomped to smithereens. Krassimir Petrov, who teaches international finance in Bulgaria's American University, warns "should the Iranian Oil Bourse gain momentum, it will be eagerly embraced by major economic powers and will precipitate the demise of the dollar." Saddam was just the first wavelet in the coming tsunami. On March 20, 2006, Iran will start selling oil in euros."

more....

Plus, if you google iran + oil + bourse you'll get lots of info.

[EVDebs]

71. Correct, the March 20, 2006 "deadline"

"On March 20, 2006, Iran will start selling oil in euros." Saddam Hussain made noises about doing this too. The US/Saudi agreement since the '30s is not to be 'messed with'.

Despite worldwide oil running out in the next 25-27 years ( 1 trillion barrels world reserves / 84 to 120 million barrels oil consumed per day -- current to projected in 20 years = 33 to 22 years. Split the difference and say 25-27 years), the WORLD needs to have a sitdown and timeout ... a rational adult discussion over the future without oil.

[DemInDistress]

57. From what little I understand of Iran and Euros is

try to read this..its lenghty

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article9698.htm

and this...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=103&topic_id=186574

and this..
http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=9995

Saddam was not attacked for nukes,bio or chemical weapons..Saddam was attacked because he went off the US Dollar in 2000 and held the 2nd largest supply of oil on Earth

[BushOut06]

83. I don't think that's very good for OPEC

What good is having $130/barrel oil if you can't get it to your customers?

[magellan]

6. Looks like the US Navy's going to provide the cannon fodder

...in Bush**'s next fabricated war.

[awoke_in_2003]

27. Well, in all honesty

do you think the Iranians could successfully engage even 1 carrier battle group? They may have those Sunburn anti ship missles, but carrier aircraft can engage the Iranian navy well outside the range of those missles. Cannon fodder will be Iranian kids. No, I am not rejoicing in this, but very sad that it is the same old story- world leaders with big mouths (on both sides) send their kids out to kill each other.

[wuushew]

31. Unless Israel starts a war when the U.S. is dangerously close to Iran

otherwise the expected U.S. first strike would easily out-range the maximum 250km range of the sunburn with cruise missiles and standoff strike aircraft.

[awoke_in_2003]

34. Exactly

and just one more reason to bring the guys (and gals) home.

[Warren Stupidity]

53. The tankers in the strait will go glug glug glug

yes our naval vessels will be safe. Oil will be $130+ Bush will have his diversion. Life will be grand.

[lpbk2713]

7. Playing right into BushCo's hands.

Setting the scene for a "pre-emptive" invasion to protect our (ie Haliburton's) petroleum interests.

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. LOL: Bush and What ARMY?

Invade Iran? You must be fucking joking.

[EVDebs]

72. CONPLAN 8022 relies solely on airpower and even nukes....

Read post #68

[HuffleClaw]

8. GOOD.

bush EXPECTS a cakewalk. he needs to know the PUBLIC knows it won't be.

[Deja Q]

10. It's hard to rule the world when your infrastructure is housed outside.

If only we didn't need to rely on that region for oil, cheap manufacturing, engineering, and IT work, this globalization conquest thingie would be far easier to accomplish.

[fujiyama]

36. I don't believee the middle east

is used forr IT, engineering, or manufacturing work.

Carefull, just because those industries aare being sent abroad doesn't mean they are all 'over there somewhere'. India and China are not likely to be in any global conflict with the US at this time. Perhaps a conflict may emerge with China, but I vieww tthhat possibility fartther down the road.

If you think thatt Iran and tthe middle east are used for outsourcing, your geography will appear be as good as a freeper's...and I know your geography is a LOT better than that.

[Solar]

11. have fun messing with the Navy

Fighting on land is pretty much even (as the current situation in Iraq is proving), but on the ocean and in the air technology WILL win.

I don't want a war with Iran either, but Im just saying I don't think they could shut down the entire Straight without fighting breaking out. If fighting DOES break out, the only hope they have against the US is on the ground.

[BrotherBuzz]

23. Iranian Sunburn Missiles could be the great equalizer

The russian built SS-N-22 Sunburn is considered "the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world" and the No. 1 threat to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers.

The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.5 speed with a very low-level flight pattern that uses violent end maneuvers to throw off defenses. After detecting the Sunburn, the U.S. Navy Phalanx point defense system may have only 2.5 seconds to calculate a fire solution - not enough time before the devastating impact of a 750 lb. warhead."

Do you know how many Sunburn missiles Iran has?

[awoke_in_2003]

35. And has a range of 250 km (about 110 miles)

carrier battle groups routinely keep protective umbrellas of over 200 mile by keeping up BARCAPs (barrier combat air patrol). During conflict this can and will be extended further.

[Leopolds Ghost]

38. "will"?

I imagine the Iranians would be stupid not to house their Sunburn missiles in cliffside bunkers at the foot of the Zagros Mountains, but then, we have come to depend on the stupidity of governments.

Closing the Strait is just an escalation tactic. If they mine the straits and then shoot missiles at Coast Guard clippers, what do you suggest? I guess the answer is not to let any ships thru the straits (dhows, etc. that might mine the straits) except US-approved tankers, creating an effective blockade of Iran.

Part of the problem is that we may have excellent intelligence on every single move of the Iranian military (or do we?) but the Iranians have excellent intelligence on every single move of US ground troops in Iraq.

If Iran doesn't have bunker-based missiles capable of hitting US bases in Iraq at the first sign of an air strike, I'd be surprised.

Maybe they don't have that capability... after all, Saddam was unable to launch missiles against "coalition forces" in 1991.

In that case, US troops could just march across the border into Khuzestan. What happens to the areas left behind? If there's a Shiite revolt in Iraq?

[madokie]

43. The sunburn's worry me also. How many ships do we have in the

persian gulf, they all have to pass through the straits of hormuz. How many strategically sunk ships would it take to block it? Yes, to the naysayers the persian gulf will be a blood bath, the waters to be stained red from the blood of our brave soldiers. We have no defenses against the sunburn except distance and we don't have distance in the persian gulf.



And we have this pitiful excuse of a human as our commander in chief, Yes I worry.

[Warren Stupidity]

51. 21 miles wide at its chokepoint

with two shipping lanes going down the middle. The Iranians could certainly bring tanker traffic to a halt for an extended period of time.

[Massacure]

59. I heard 12. Are you sure your not referring to kilometers?

[Warren Stupidity]

62. Wiki says 21m. eom.

[Massacure]

63. So it does. I stand corrected.

[Warren Stupidity]

65. Doesn't much matter though.

Two shipping lanes down the middle, all tankers within those lanes are sitting ducks waiting to be sunk. A couple of good or lucky shots and the strait is shut down. I'm sure we have plans to keep it open, but meanwhile oil is through the roof. Iraq's shiite militias, who we have been training and arming for the last year turn suddenly hostile. Now we have to defend both our land bases in Iraq and our strategic geographic positions in the gulf. Both sides (us and the Iranians) have weapons that haven't actually been combat tested. I'd say our leaders are taking us into a crap shoot. For what? How many of our kids and the kids of the people of the middle east are going to die over this gambit?

[EVDebs]

69. CONPLAN 8022 will be by air and 'over the horizon' and

from 30,000 feet. Whatever triggers this, know one will know what hit them. see post #68

The fact is this is a war that probably doesn't need to be fought. Sun Tzu 101. If both sides can come to realize that they still can achieve (rational) objectives w/o resulting to war, then everyone 'wins'. If Amadinajhad wants a Madhi's return and if Bush's group wants an armageddon (to foster the Second Coming), they should check their ideologies at the door.

[Warren Stupidity]

75. You cannot clear wrecks from the strait 'over the horizon'.

That's the point. We have yet to demonstrate a capability to eliminate anything except tribal-militia resistance from awe-shocks campaigns. We will have to move our naval units into the strait itself at a minimum to clear wrecked tankers and perhaps to convoy others. As I said, several untested weapons systems will get their tests, we are not the only great power in this game. Iran is not Iraq and is certainly not Afghanistan.

I reject the assertion that Amadinajhad is acting as Bush's evil co-equal in this madness. The Iranians are not the aggressors here. We made it quite clear four years ago that they were on the short list headed for regime change. Their efforts since then have been aimed solely at preserving their sovereignty. (Disclaimer: the Iranian theocracy is a horrid regime, but that is the Iranian's problem, not ours.)

[EVDebs]

81. Correct, it's the entire Iranian regime as co-equal to ours

One theocracy vs. another. March 20, the euro conversion date is the trip wire.

[Spider Jerusalem]

25. That remains to be seen.

Russia has sold a lot of missile technology to Iran. Including the SS-N-22 'Sunburn' (Russian designation: P270 Moskit) anti-ship missile, which was designed specifically to penetrate the AEGIS screen of a US carrier battle group. It's supersonic (Mach 3), travels at just above the surface of the water, and performs a terminal S-manouevre to evade countermeasures. Supposedly, the evolution of the type, the SS-NX-22, can discriminate in targeting between an aircraft carrier and its escorts.

The US Navy may find tougher opposition from Iran than anticipated if things come to war.

Not to mention that any war with Iran may lead to war with China, thanks to the close economic ties that have developed between the two of late, and China's major investment in Iranian oil...which I just can't really see ending well.

[rustydad]

45. Actually it is the Onyx

that flys at mach 3 and has improved range and payload over the sunburn inany case if there is an attack on Iran or even an embargo (an act of war) then I would assume that Iran will not only attack oil tankers, most of whom are carrying Saudi oil, but also Saudi loading and distribution systems. The Saudi terminals are very fragile. Just a few short range conventional warhead missles will put the Saudi oil machine out of business for months or years. There goes Europe and Japan. This is all utter maddness. bob

[Strelnikov_]

33. I See No Way Anyone Wins

If history has taught us anything it is that there are many paths to losing a war, and the ultimate ’winner’ is not immediately apparent.

I believe the Iranians have the upper hand. Why? Economic interdependency. They are a relatively self contained society, and appear to be resolved to hunker down and take the hit.

The US, on the other hand, consumes 25% of the worlds oil, and is now dependent on other nations for a variety of finished goods. Also, the majority of the populace will be incapable of making the sacrifices that will be required in the event of disruption of the gulf oil resources.

The majority of our ground forces are bogged down suppressing an insurgency among 5 million Sunnis. Are we going to risk an uprising of the 15 million Shia? I think the Iranian leadership knows this, along with their superior strategic position, and it is the reason for their current belligerence.


Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.

- Sir Winston Churchill

[Solar]

40. yes Ive heard of the Sunburn threat

I know about the missle and the threat it poses, as well as the difficulties Iran would have in using it. But I have a tough time believing the Navy hasn't done anything to counter the threat.

[Strelnikov_]

55. I Have No Doubt That OPLAN 1019-Arabian Gauntlet

will eventually open the Strait.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/arabian-gauntlet.htm

Edit to add:

I have great faith in the competence of our military strategists. We probably have the most professional, most competent military leadership since the Prussian General Staff of Germany in the first half of the 20th century. And look where that resource got Germany, when it was placed in the hands of incompetent political leadership.

. . .

My point is, when the first bomb falls, we have already lost. When the Strait is threatened, the price of oil will skyrocket, and will linger far beyond reopening of the Strait. Due to our dependency on massive amounts of foreign oil, we will be bidding against China, Japan, etc. in the open market for this oil. What happens when all those dollars these nations are recycling into our economy are suddenly diverted to purchase of high priced oil.

As for the Sunburn I hear so much about, I really have no idea. Like most weapons, it's effectiveness will greatly depend on how it is deployed.

It really comes down to whether 'our' Schlieffen plan superior to ‘their’ Grandmaison plan?

What happens if we find that our highly touted anti-ASM systems, that have never been tested in combat, are less than effective? I am afraid that with the advances in modern missiles, surface ships are going to prove even greater deathtraps than they were in WW II when the ascendance of the airplane dealt mortal blows to ships previously thought unassailable. My concern with the modern missile is that they are relatively simple compared to the countermeasure systems needed to protect against them. And our Navy, as evidenced in the Stark, Cole, and a recent incident where one of our carriers ran over an Iranian dhouh (small boat) in the gulf, has a track record of letting security slip.

Let’s forget even ASM’s. What happens with plain old mines, in the hands of a determined ‘adversary’, one with ‘elan vitale’, one with ‘Victoire c’est la volonte’?

History is riddled with weapons systems that looked good until the bullets fly, then the limitations become apparent. Some militaries adjust, as we did in WW II. Others are destroyed when the system they relied on is so massively flawed, such as the French in 1940. History is riddled with ‘leaders’ that assume the ‘enemy’ are just monkeys who can be beaten due to their supposed ‘superiority’.

I am sure the French thought their Franco-Prussian war style maneuver would overcome entrenched German machine gun positions during the great center thrust (August 1914).

Equally, the German’s thought having “The Last Man On The Right Brush The Channel” was bound to succeed. They thought the ‘superior’ Prussian military leadership in August of 1914 would overcome the obviously inferior opponents. And it almost did.

Look where ‘almost’ took them.

Actual armed conflict is not a strategy game where the one with the stronger ‘strength rating’ on their token wins (the view of the ‘Janes Defense’ quoting crowd).

[EVDebs]

74. Iranian threats have been a gift to Bush.....

""The Iranians have repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the rest of the world does not do what Iran wishes it to do in a variety of ways. There was such a threat in May 1997, with the Iranians saying that if the Americans were to try to take any kind of retaliatory action against Iranian terrorism, they would close this Strait of Hormuz. During a 18 December 1997 press conference, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Maleki stated that Iran supports "the free flow of oil" through the Strait of Hormuz, but reserved the option of closing off the shipping route if it is threatened. Iran ad recently has admitted to deploying anti- aircraft and anti- ship missiles on Abu Musa, an island strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz’s shipping lanes. Some say it would be foolish for Iran to seek to disrupt oil traffic in the Gulf because all of its oil flows through the Gulf. The US Government doesn't anticipate that Iran would try to do something like that because it would be the first victim of any such program.""

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/arabian-gauntlet.htm

Shia Iran vs. Sunni Saudi Arabia. Behind the scenes. Also, EU support behind scenes. Oh, and the Muslim riots over 'cartoons', a brilliant provokation that unites EU/US on this matter. Allah must love those war planners. If Iranians were smart they would just wait 25 more years and demand access to non-oil energy...if that were their true intentions.

[Solo_in_MD]

87. Sunburns SSMs are not a serious threat to the USN

Sunburns are well understood. Unarmed vessels on the other hand are at serious risk to SSMs, mine and other antiship weapons

[kineneb]

12. well, duh!

King George is clueless, and Pres. A-J is a gas bag. What a pair. But any Iranian Pres. would have to make the same statement. Think about it: he is defending his country. And if the Iranian are attacked, all bets are off with treaties, as King George has shown. (Great example, K.G.-ignore treaties, etc. and then expect others to abide by them.)

[Strelnikov_]

13. Related Article

Iran MP: Could Disrupt Gulf Oil Flow If Sanctions -Report

http://www.peakoil.com/article11645.html

Iran could disrupt the flow of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf waterway if its oil exports are subjected to economic sanctions as a punitive measure over its nuclear program, said an Iranian lawmaker Saturday. The U.N. nuclear agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, decided Saturday to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council over suspicions about its nuclear program. The decision sets the stage for possible future political and economic sanctions by the U.N. body.

The semi-official Mehrnews quoted Soleiman Jaffar-zadeh, a member of the conservative Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Relations Committee, as saying political and economic sanctions against Iran would be ineffective and useless. He warned oil producing countries in the Gulf region, particularly Saudi Arabia, that any sanctions on the export of Iranian oil would also negatively affect the oil exports out of the waterway by other producers. "Countries such as Saudi Arabia which play mischief these days and claim they would compensate for the oil market shortage and prevent a rise in its price with increased oil production in case of Iran's sanction must know that under those conditions there would be no oil tanker leaving the Persian Gulf intact," Jaffar-zadeh said.

He said "the key to the Persian Gulf's security is in the hands of Iran" as far as the export of oil is concerned.
The international oil market has been nervous in recent days with oil prices having edged close to $70 a barrel over fears of a disruption in Iran's 2.4 million barrels a day of supplies through possible U.N. economic sactions or Iran's own decision to withhold supplies.

Iran's Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh was quoted Saturday as saying his country has no plan to disrupt the flow of oil out of Iran by using it as a political weapon but that it should keep its options open under an emergency.

[tatertop]

19. they absolutely have our number

They are ready and willing to screw us to the tenth power.

[burrowowl]

30. Anybody know where

Navy is deployed? Quantity and how near the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas within striking range of US NAvy?
And there is your answer.

[Clarkie1]

37. I assure you if they try to do that they will fail.

To be quite blunt, we will not allow it.

In addition, it is foolhardy for them as their economy depends upon the strait.

[Warren Stupidity]

49. They will manage just fine without the straight.

Quite a few of you seem to think that it is our naval vessels that will be attacked. If the Iranians want to shut down the straight they will most likely go after the commercial vessels instead. Tankers are easy targets.

[Solon]

67. I don't see how we can stop them...

What's the draft on the straits anyways? I doubt its that deep, sinking one or two tankers in the straits will probably be enough to shut it down to any commercial traffic for the forseeable future. With the way the region is laid out, any attempt by US ships to clear the Strait simply turns it into a shooting gallery, like fish in a barrel.

[buddysmellgood]

47. I've been hearing about the "Flying Dragon" as opposed to the Sunburn.

"China and Russia are the only two countries to have successfully developed supersonic anti-ship missiles, which represent the future direction of anti-ship weapons. The majority of anti-ship missiles are high subsonic. In addition to developing the C-101 and C-301 supersonic anti-ship missiles which are fairly large in size, China has developed the more compact Feilong (Flying Dragon)-7 supersonic anti-ship missile which can be carried on airplanes and warships. The Feilong-7 has an effective range of 32 kilometers and a speed of Mach 1.4. It has powerful anti-jamming capability and its supersonic flight makes terminal interception difficult. The warhead of the "Feilong-7" can pierce solid armor and destroy large and medium-sized surface warships.

It was reported in 1996 that Iran had begun indigenous production of a medium-range antiship missile, the FL-10, based on the Chinese FL-2 or FL7 and developed with Chinese technical assistance. "

[bvar22]

48. I believe that Iran also has....

...some very quiet modern Diesel/Electric submarines.

[Pharaoh]

50. Yes we saw it coming months ago at DU

the straits of hormuz are Iran's ace in the hole....

one merely needs to look at the map and see what a difficult situation it would be getting a ship through under fire............

The economic shock waves of shutting down the flow of oil even for a few weeks will escalate things very very quickly.....

:dem: :dem: :dem:

http://encarta.msn.com/map_701516791/Hormuz_Strait_of.html

[Warren Stupidity]

52. Bushco needs a diversion, one diversion coming up.

[progressivebydesign]

61. Bush must be having wet dreams over this! ANOTHER WAR!!

woohoo.. Bet the mofos at PNAC are high fiving all around.

Someone please educate me. Why are we and a few others, the only ones allowed to have nuclear weapons?

[in_cog_ni_to]

66. I thought this was going to be an air war? Isn't that why we have

15 permanent military bases in Iraq? They are to be used as a staging area for when we attack Iran and Syria.

[EVDebs]

68. Oil spikes to $80/barrel, Iranian assets frozen in the West...

CONPLAN 8022

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=328488&mesg_id=328960

This then begs the question, is Syria next ? Iran seems to be doing exactly what the oilmen want them to do.

BTW, with 1 trillion barrels of oil reserves vs. a consumption rate of 84 million barrels today, and projections to go to 120 million/day within 20 years, we have about 25 to 27 years of oil LEFT. What are the Persian Gulf oil-states going to do AFTER that ?

We will simply go on to www.oilendgame.com as detailed by Amory Lovins, but what will those oil-states go on to ? Solar power hopefully.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

70. But..but..they're supposed to back down to our mighty military!

You know, that one that is so succesfully subdoing a wrecked third world country next to Iran.

[EVDebs]

73. They won't use the army silly, all airpower/nukes

again, read post #68 re CONPLAN 8022. We've been Polo Stepped people, the common man has no say in the future; all warplans, some even 30 yrs old.

[PATRICK]

79. It has been ugly but consistent

An uninvestigated open book, that anyone seeking more secret hidden plans will be mightily humiliated for not seeing the trees or the forest.

For the US: a highly privatized, dumbed down human military staffed with poorly educated officers indoctrinated in Jesus and Rush, conveniently foddered with poor Latinos gleaned from desperate illegals
and added to with our own poor and the poor of the world. EVERYWHERE we have a world base, we have a recruiting station. No draft, no pesky US citizens with minds. Part two of the wonders of private enterprise is the DOMINANCE of WMD's from afar, drones and space beams and planes. Nukes to seal the deal. Note: a nuke MUST be used to seal the reality of this corporate aegis of dominance.

Iraq was to be a desultory walkover, the last use perhaps of boots on the ground. Even though that failed phase two of the US military remodeling and the Peak Oil War for Empire should likely be doom from above, even fewer boots, even more privatization. Somewhere, one might think the craven sycophants of the world powers would climb into their lower niches in the PNAC pyramid scheme. The WH remains disdainful and presumptive for some good reason, the world bound by greed and capitalism is despicable and weak at the top. Too bad it is written in stone that they must overplay their hand. Like the snickering mortal host of Greek mythology that serves human flesh to visiting gods, they serve this up to the people of the world with the truth barely disguised, the lies pathetic and transparent. Of course they will face the wrath and the punishment and whatever madness moved them only retribution will endure- and memory.

ALL dictators and tyrannies flatter themselves that IF only they succeed in dominating and "uniting", the world will be a better place. The tyrants can retire into respectable adulation, the bloodshed worthwhile and forgotten. And nothing good ever comes of it and the less their evils are undone the greater the certainty of worse calamities echoing through the decades in more chaos, blood and tyranny.

Because we have nukes we do what we want. Because we are the axis of mammon the markets do what we say- or else. But that is only a last ditch ultimatum. There is nothing behind it, no depth of human bonding within it, no value in success except getting our way and swimming in blood-soaked devalued dollars. Even success would be calamity. Maybe especially success.

[EVDebs]

80. As I've hinted....

within 25 or so years it won't matter what these idiots of either stripe do.

The oil will be gone.

THEN what happens; or as Larry The Cable Guy says, 'just sit back and watch the fun begin'.

www.oilendgame.com was something * could have mentioned with his SOTU but chose to blow off completely.

[PATRICK]

82. SOTU

Everyone was watching. More to lose than gain and the idiot still made a few snide gambits that backfired
on domestic issues. he doesn't need the UN or the polls. All he needs is to go through the motions and let everyone else pretend they still matter and stay out of his way.

The tragedy. The oil in combination with the betterment of the Arab world, true democratization, weathering the radicals with prosperity for all, jobs and participation, REAL diplomacy and patience. Now their onetime commodity and opportunity will literally go up in smoke and the dough to foreign banks leaving behind another dessicated, overpopulated, hate torn part of the world. The oil could also have benefited the transition of Europe, Russia and China.

WE don't NEED the ME oil! WE have the tech knowhow to advance the future to our real benefit and everyone else after the last oil has melted the last ice, but it should be before! Those who need will have nothing. We will have squandered our own hope for bright eyed visions of vanishing greed.

Bush I had no vision. Clinton barely. Bush II, nostalgia for the Reich. Small wonder. They have denied the must and the possibilities of the future. Instead of a price they demand to be paid.

The true well being of nation and world is monstrously betrayed and threatened by this hellishly misconceived foreign policy, outdated, rooted in past errors and anachronistic horrors, stupid capitalist accounting in a post capitalist environment that has in no uncertain terms declared it UNSUSTAINABLE, no more Mrs. Nice Mother Nature. Even the incomplete, ineffectual lies of soft edged globalization have been shucked for this conquering madness.

[Messenger]

76. Thanks for posting this!

[Raydawg1234]

86. They'd be stupid not to, it's a powerfull detterence.

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