My Poll about Polls: The Truthiness of Polls

[hang a left]

I am very suspicious about Polls. They are quoted on cable and networks news all day long. "Polls suggest..." "In a new poll, Americans..." "According to a poll taken..."

Are polls for real. Are they tools for swaying public opinion? We all know now they were bullshit before November 2, 2004, right? So really, what is your take on polls and their impact on how people think?

[Dogmudgeon]

1. Polls are very "GIGO"

GIGO is old-school computer jargon for "Garbage In, Garbage Out".

A well-constructed, well-conducted poll can be invaluable; most of the kinds of polls that are quoted on TV are standard restricted-choice polls, usually designed with a sly slant; Fox's method of emotionally wording a poll ("Should God be kicked out of the schools and courts?") is sometimes called a "Push Poll". Push polls aren't really polls, of course; they're propaganda.

--p!

[Wordie]

3. Well-designed ones can be valuable; the instant tv ones are worthless.

The ones that they regularly do on tv, where viewers are asked to answer "the question of the day," are not only worthless, but dangerous, imho. Have you noticed that the ones that the different cable news hosts do almost always come out with a vote that supports whatever the host tends to think? This is because they represent what is called a "self-selected" sample of participants. In other words, the people responding to the polls don't in any way represent the population as a whole (as a well-designed poll would do), but only represent the views of those that choose to watch that particular show. What's the point? And we all know that the online ones are "freeped" to the point that they don't really mean anything. The ones connected to a particular show or online are dangerous because the idea that "everybody" thinks a certain way can have self-fullfilling-prophecy sort of tendencies.

Even professional surveyers can get goofed up on the wording of the questions, too. It's a tricky thing to anticipate how the average person might interpret a question. Still, I think they have value if the designer doesn't have a pre-concieved idea of what results they want to produce, and thinks through carefully the implications of the questions.

[Dogmudgeon]

4. Yep. They're the Push Polls.

Like microwave popcorn or underarm deodorant, several varieties are now available.

--p!

[Wordie]

5. There really should be restrictions on them, as they are so misleading

and conceivably can influence, rather than reflect, public opinion.

[Dogmudgeon]

6. It's a free country

Besides, when people pick up on what the polls are doing, they inevitably rebel, rejecting the message.

Even today, the level of popular cynicism is so high that push polls are probably net vote losers. Idealism, in any form, has always been the long-term winner.

--p!

[Wordie]

8. Oh yeah...but I don't really mean legal restrictions.

More like something written into whatever code there is of journalistic ethical standards, or maybe self-imposed restrictions by the networks themselves. (Neither of which are likely anytime soon!)

[Dogmudgeon]

9. Most of them aren't from jouralists, though

Unless you consider Fox News to be journalism, though most professional journalism organiations don't. Pro journalists probably already have codes of conduct which disinclude push polling -- typically, a journalist will have several codes to follow, depending on the journalism societies s/he is involved in and the clients s/he works for.

Wider self-imposed restrictions on push polling will only happen after push polls become part of a negative news cycle in which the national pundits express their disapproval. I don't mean Tweety and Rush, I mean the Eminences Grises like Dan Rather. On the Right, it would have to come from Roger Ailes, head of Fox News itself.

This is one of the reasons why I ignore pleas to "DU this poll!" It's an exercise in futility. Such polls fool nobody.

--p!

[hang a left]

2. Let's see if anyone is interested today. nt

[robbedvoter]

7. Manufactured reality...Don't believe any of them.