McCain Could Turn Some Blue States Red in 2008

[Mass]

Obviously, this poll is meaningless because it is so early on, but it makes a point that people typically dismiss: States like MA, VT, or RI cannot be assumed to vote democratic whoever the nominee is. Most of these states voted for Reagan twice and, given the right couple of Democrats and Republicans, could vote Republican again.

So, there is no point in choosing a nominee only on the fact he/she can get Southern States. We need a nominee that can attract both traditionally blue and red states.

This said, I am a little surprised that Hillary would do so poorly in NE.

Other point, Democrats, please, stop saying McCain is so great and stop co-sponsoring bills with him.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/10856

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Arizona senator John McCain could carry six states in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by American Research Group. 52 per cent of respondents in South Carolina would vote for the Republican in a head-to-head contest against Democratic New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

McCain is ahead in five states where Democratic nominee John Kerry won in the 2004 presidential election. The Republican holds a four-point edge in Maine, a 20-point lead in New Hampshire, a nine-point advantage in Vermont, a nine-point edge in Massachusetts, and a four-point lead in Rhode Island. Rodham-Clinton keeps a 10-point advantage over McCain in Connecticut.

In 2000, McCain won seven GOP presidential primaries in the U.S., but retired from the race after eventual nominee George W. Bush became the frontrunner. Rodham Clinton was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000, defeating Republican Rick Lazio by 12 per cent. She ruled out a presidential bid in 2004.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

...
Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 American adults in each of the following states—South Carolina, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island—conducted from Feb. 2 to Feb. 9, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

[saltpoint]

1. If Dr. Dean calls me up and tells me I alone get to decide whether

Senator Clinton will head our ticket, I'll say no, she's not the best person for the job.

John McCain, an extremely conservative guy, is dangerously likable. I'm fearful that if he is the GOP nominee and Sen. Clinton is ours, that the Republicans will win yet again.

And that is not a happy prospect.

[TayTay]

2. I am not surprised about this at all.

Massachusetts does like moderate (seeming) Repubs and doesvote for them, at least in state-wide contests for Governor. NH is very libertarian in nature and could easily turn 'red' again in a contest of Clinton vs. McCain.

You can't take any area of the country for granted. I think that's the lesson.

[BayCityProgressive]

3. I am very worried

That we are looking at 12 yrs olf GOP rule.

[The Backlash Cometh]

4. Between now and 2008, if McCain's ethic's reform task force becomes

another joke, I would say his chances of becoming president are nil.

[Mass]

5. May be, but if this is not the point. The point is that you should not

take any state for granted.

There has been numerous posts on GD/GDP and elsewhere on the blogosphere on how we should dismiss the blue states as granted and only focus on how a nominee could attract some red states. Certainly, the second part is important, but what is the point if the nominee cannot keep traditionnally blue states?

[liberalpragmatist]

6. I'm surprised that he carries RI but not Connecticut

Connecticut seems a lot more likely to go red than Rhode Island.

Honestly, I think in an actual race it would be closer; but all things together, New England does have a nostalgia for moderate Republicans. McCain, though quite conservative, is relatively moderate compared to today's GOP. New England states like their independence and they would likely be interested in McCain.

Honestly, though, if McCain is the GOP nominee, we're probably looking at 12 years of Republican control. Granted, I think a President McCain would be preferable to W, but that's not saying much. We should be very worried about McCain. He has the media on his side far more strongly than even Bush ever has, he has genuine support among moderates, and there's a widespread perception that he's a moderate or even a liberal. He will be very difficult to beat.

[FreedomAngel82]

27. McCain a moderate?

LOL!! Please. Only thing he's moderate on is torture and that's because of his personal experience. He's nothing more than a rightwing fundie Bush asskisser neocon. Please. Give me a break. He pretends to be moderate and the teevee people kiss his ass. I'm tired of this nonsense with McCain. As Georgie once said "fool me once- shame on me, fool me-you can't get fooled again." Or whatever. They are ALLLLL the same.

[liberalpragmatist]

39. Hey, I'm not voting for him

McCain is clearly a right-winger. I'm simply saying that compared to Bush and to people like George Allen, he's a moderate. Of course, that tells you something about how far right the Republican Party has gone.

[Faygo Kid]

7. He will never be nominated. Not far right enough to win primaries.

No, zip, zero, nada chance of McCain being nominated. It will have to be someone hand picked by the Bushites (if there is an election, which I seriously doubt) who will agree to keep the lid on information about the most scandalous administration in U.S. history.

[FreedomAngel82]

28. He met with Falwell last October

So don't not bet on it. Why else is he kissing Bush's ass every second he can?

[zanne]

35. Unfortunately, I think he will be the Rep. candidate...

George Bush was elected as a "uniter, not a divider". During his second term, he's falling out of favor rapidly with Republican voters. I really doubt that they'd elect another radical conservative to run. McCain is really their only hope of winning in 08'. They'll want someone who's more "moderate". The way I see it, McCain is their Hilary. She's too conservative for me, but if I had to choose between any Republican and Hilary, I'd hold my nose and vote for her. I'm sure that Republicans will vote for the Republican, no matter who that is. Let's hope they do stay home.

[Faygo Kid]

37. Mr. Natural avatar. Superb. But, I stand by my post.

Not a chance, no way. The Rove-Cheney-Bush cabal would kill him. Figuratively - and literally. And I don't agree with him. But that is not enough. There is no longer a Republican Party. There is only a Bushite Party. With no convictions other than power, raw power. McCain hasn't signed on with his heart and soul. Therefore, no chance. Thanks for your post. Maybe no election at all, and neither you nor I would be shocked at that. Hope to see you in the camps. Euchre? A turn around the dance floor?

[ingac70]

8. The hard core Redneck Right will stay home.....

Why vote for someone who is insane because he was held captive while in the service and fathered a black baby out of wedlock? No wonder his wife has 'issues'. :sarcasm:

[BayCityProgressive]

11. I think Warner

or Wes Clark are two of the only people that could defeat him. Hillary would go down in flames, as would Gore, Feingold, Edwards or Kerry.

[Mass]

13. Could Warner win against McCain in the states this poll list.

I sincerely think that Gore, Feingold, Edwards, or Kerry could.

[ingac70]

14. Warner will shore up the white trash vote in the south.....

I would like to see a real liberal in the WHite House, but I reckon it will never happen.

[Mass]

17. He still will not win if he loses the blue states (remember Carter in 80),

[FreedomAngel82]

29. Oh please

Warner maybe. He is a southerner who worked well with republicans in his state and has an impressive resume. Clark has nothing but military experience. I know I for one do not vote for anyone who hasn't had some type of experience. Warner has experience being governor at least. He knows how to do a budget and create jobs etc. Feingold and Kerry would do just as well as Warner if not better. They aren't DLC.

[CatholicEdHead]

9. Minnesota sure could turn red if McCain runs

he still has his "independent" reputation even though IMO he gave that up with those Bush-hugging shots in 04.

[FreedomAngel82]

30. For these states that's all you have to do

Just make an ad showing him at every opportunity kissing Bush's ass and hugging him etc. and than ask the question: "do you want four more years of the same?" Perfect ad campaign for whomever does win the 2008 nomination.

[saltpoint]

49. Three contacts of mine in St. Paul agree with you 100% and they're

worried about it.

At least one of them thinks the Democrats should hold their convention there in summer 2008, that a move like that would help some.

It's been a hard fight in Minnesota lately. We need to keep it blue.

[phoebe]

10. don't forget that ARG is a marketing group which takes money

from big businesses that would more than likely prefer McCain wins..

http://americasresearchgroup.com/predatory.html

C. Britt Beemer with Robert L. Shook

Britt Beemer understands, probably better than anyone else in America today, how consumers think, why they think that way, and what obstacles must be overcome to generate a sale. Clients who follow Beemer's research-based recommendations grow several times greater than their competitors, earning him a reputation as one of America's leading business strategists.

"Predatory Marketing" teaches businesses

1.) How to avoid making the wrong decisions.

2.) How to develop a strategy that works from the beginning.

3.) How to make your customer notice your company.

Most extraordinary is Beemer's central message that the fastest way to increase market share is to attack competitors at their strong points, not their weak ones. In short, if you want to win market share, you have to convince consumers that the major things your competitors do well you can do better.

plus his bio says this:

In 1979, after a career managing or consulting on sixteen congressional and senatorial campaigns, with their exacting research and demanding strategic planning, Britt Beemer founded America's Research Group, a full-service consumer behavior research and strategic marketing firm.

What's the betting he worked on republican/McCain's campaigns??

[FreedomAngel82]

31. The only person who that guy might like

is Warner. Didn't Warner not too long ago have some fundraiser where he raised lots of money and had big donors there? Plus, he's a business guy himself.

[Mass]

12. Just to make my point differently - If the choice was between Hagel and

Warner , I would be conflicted. If the choice is between McCain and Feingold, I will run for Feingold.

We can dismiss McCain as much as we want, but the pb is HOW we choose our nominee,

[FreedomAngel82]

32. I wouldn't trust Hagel

Ownership of ES&S machines for starters. He "won" Nebraska by having 80% of the votes counted on those machines. He was also once going to be Bush's VP choice but the GOP officials wanted Cheney.

[fujiyama]

15. If he's the nominee

especially against Hillary, he wins. The media likes him for one.

He'll likely turn the entire midwest as well. I'll assure you that in a race between Hillary and McCain, McCain wins MI, WI, MN.

I'd be a bit surprised if he wins all those NE states mentioned above. In the end I think the Dem would likely take DE, RI, CT, NY, MA, and VT. NH and PA would almost definitely swing the other way, because the hey were so close as it is.

I would be a bit surprised if He wins the nomination. The evangelicals have a lott of say in the nominee. But he has kissed up a lot to them in thee last several years...

[Mass]

19. I would be surprised too, but remember 80 and 84.

No state should be taken for granted.

[FreedomAngel82]

33. Especially Falwell

[fujiyama]

38. Interesting you mention him

I remember when McCain ran in '00, He called him and Robertson "forces of evil". I can't imagine him using such rhetoric now.

[AtomicKitten]

16. Ironically, he will probably be defeated by his own party in the primaries

I realize Dems are worried about his possible nomination as Repub candidate, but I think Giuliani has a better chance than he does. Still neither will pass muster with the newly muscled fundies that seem to control the agenda in the party.

Probably just as well. I'd love to see them nominate ultraconservative George Allen.

[AZBlue]

42. Very true. For one thing he's pro-life (well, sort of).

And that doesn't sit well with the R's since that's such a polarizing issue that automatically wins them votes.

Even so, I will still do what I can to stop him from even getting that far. He's just bad news (and I should know, being stuck in AZ with him!).

[Joanne98]

18. McCain cannot be trusted. He needs to be stopped now!

[AZBlue]

41. I second that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (nt)

[seabeyond]

20. commercial of his hug with bush. biggest eeeeewwwww.....

that will turn off a lot of people. you want to continue the last 8 years, and show the hug....

[raysr]

21. Swift Boat him

with exactly the same shit that Rove used. Worked in 2000. He also has cancer on his face. Big nasty melanoma. He needs one of those purple heart bandaids! I dispise him! To hug up to Bush after what they did to him......POS! They were, apparently, right about him!

[Paulie]

22. Or show the Hug interspersed with McCain's "tough talk"

Bush is X. :hug: I am against Bush Y. :hug: War is costly. :hug: I'm for saving Social Security. :hug: End corruption. :hug: Bush was never my friend. :hug:

Easy.

[Baconfoot]

23. McCain doesn't look good enough on TV anymore to change a color NT

[ProSense]

24. Pushing McCain. They should change the title

McCain Could Turn Some Blue States Red in 2008 (in match up against Clinton)

McCain could turn six blue states red. What the f ck is he: super candidate?

Other polls show Guiliani and even Rice winning the nominee over McCain. Give me a break!

[SoCalDem]

25. Won't happen.. He fooled some of us in 2K

"Can't get fooled again"

he's too old, too militaristic, and his health is at issue too..

There was no war going on when he ran before, there's too much war now..

A military guy will be a hard sell..(a military guy in favor of war, that is)

[FreedomAngel82]

26. I think all you have to do for those states

is show that picture of McCain hugging Bush and say "do you want four more years of this?" And than show pictures of soldiers pain and heartaches and people without jobs etc. Oh and of course showing him aligned with Jerry Falwell because they did meet last October as reported by crooksandliars.com More rightwing fundie "judges" on the court!

[Katherine Brengle]

34. Maybe it's time to start mounting a serious anti-McCain effort?

I know a lot of us have been hesitant to speak out against McCain in the past, mostly due to his many bipartisan outreach efforts, but when it comes down to it, he is the only serious competition the Dems have in 08, as of now.

We need to start hitting him hard--the Obama letters were a good start, but we have to come at him with more than that. The Reps will work hard to kill his bid, but that might make Democratic voters more sympathetic to him.

We need to make sure that doesn't happen by telling Democrats (and everyone else) who McCain really is, what he is for and against, and how his election would impact the American people.

[MrBenchley]

36. Wait and see....

There's a good chance the GOP core will ratfuck his campaign again, the way they did in 2000.....

[Poiuyt]

40. We can start with the fact that he was NOT a war hero

What is the real story behind his days as a POW? The U.S. Veteran Dispatch had an article in June of 1996 entitled "POW Songbird McCain Wrongly Described As A Hero." It recounted numerous instances where John McCain violated the Military Coda of Conduct, which specifically orders American personnel to give the enemy no information other than name, rank, serial number, and date of birth. It requires that they accept no favors from the enemy, and to make no written or oral statement disloyal to the United States.

The fact is, in exchange for better medical treatment, McCain violated this code four days after being captured on Oct. 26, 1967. In a U.S. News and World Report interview dated May 14, 1973, two months after he was released, McCain admitted that he exchanged military information in exchange for spending six weeks in a hospital normally reserve for North Vietnamese Military officers.

U.S. government records show that less than two weeks after he was taken to the hospital, Hanoi's press began quoting specific military information, including the name of the aircraft carrier on which McCain had been based, information about the location of rescue ships and the order of which his attack was supposed to take place. The records demonstrate, according to the Dispatch article that McCain continued to collaborate with the Communists after he recovered from his injuries. He did a number of propaganda broadcasts that were aimed at destroying the moral of American servicemen fighting in the jungles of South Vietnam, On June 4, 1969, a U.S. Wire Service story reported one of McCain's broadcasts.

The service reported "Hanoi has aired a broadcast in which the pilot son of the U.S. Commander in the Pacific, Adm. John McCain purportedly admits to having bombed civilian targets in North Vietnam and praised medical treatment he has received since being taken prisoner."

McCain committed other breaches of the Code of Conduct by meeting with and giving interviews to foreign news reporters and anti American delegations.

more-

http://www.namvets.com/Reading/john_mccain_is_no_war_hero.htm

[AlCzervik]

43. I thnk the gop will kneecap him without our help, they want George Allen

thats who we need to start on imo.

[Mass]

46. We can start by asking our congressmen and senators to stop

promoting him.

Obama making clear that McCain was a good guy and saying it was important that he had McCain as a co-sponsor of his bill does not help, nor does Feingold and Bayh being co-sponsor of McCain's legislation (who do you think it will help, certainly not Feingold or Bayh).

It is time for our Democratic Senators, particularly those who want to run in 2008, to stop promoting the ennemy. McCain is totally disingenuous and many of his bills are just fluff.

At this point, the Republicans are fighting harder than the Democrats to kill his bid.

[bklyncowgirl]

48. How about using some reverse psychology. Striesand for McCain?

The idea is to get some high profile liberals that the right wing absolutly despises sing McCain's praises to the skies. The rightwingnut would go apeshit and vote for anyone but McCain.

Incidently, I think they're going to do that anyway. I can't see the fundies voting for him.

[Little Star]

44. OK, Its time for my bumper sticker

McCain: POW - Then
Warmonger - Now

What the heck is wrong with his cheeks anyway? Is he storing nuts in there?

[bluestateguy]

45. McCain's war record must be fair game

It's time for some ugly payback, and also we need to show people that our party can fight back hard--and dirty--when need be.

[johnaries]

47. No way he'd win the primary!

McCain is the LAST thing the RNC wants as a candidate - a Republican that THINKS for himself! They couldn't control him. He'll never win the primary.