Could the Cheney shooting become a disaster for Democrats?

[Silverhair]

Suppose the situation reaches the point where Cheney has to go.

Feb 23, Cheney resigns.

Feb 24, Bush picks Condi. She is quickly approved by the House and Senate.

Fall election campain: Condi hits the campaign trails, speaking to both whites and blacks. She is able to further, by 10% points, the Republican reach into the ranks of black voters.

That 10% becomes critical and is enough to allow them to gain in both the Houses. They get a filibuster proof Senate.

Stevens resigns. He is just too old to hang in there. Janice Brown gets the nod.

Although she has repeatedly said that she has no interest in becoming President, once she is VP, she gets the fever. She runs and gets the nomination.

What percentage of blacks would vote for Condi is guesswork at best, but we are kidding ourselves if we try to pretend that it would only be a minor fraction. If I were black, I would feel like it was worth making the point, even if I disagreed with her.

Game - Set - Match

---------
We now end the nightmare and return you to your regular bad dream.

[helderheid]

1. I think you're right

[aquart]

2. No words.

[Ron Mexico]

3. No problem. I don't really need to sleep anyway.

:scared:

[stopbush]

4. It all depends on the date that Condi gets indicted. :)

[BlacknBlue in Red NC]

5. Nightmare scenario for sure, but

I am a Black democratic woman who wouldn't vote for her, historical point or no point. Just one woman's opinion, but I have to believe it's shared by many.

[bigscott]

16. i just cannot see her

either sailing thru the house and senate OR winning in 2008. all those southern/midwestern christian conservatives would never vote for her - there would be a white christian conservative male pug as a third party candidate splitting the pug vote allowing clark/edwards to sail to victory

[katty]

6. yup, Condi would sail right into the Veep harbor

[Ksec]

7. I doubt Condi can save them

Shes as corrupt as the rest of them.

[MrBenchley]

8. Not likely

"Condi hits the campaign trails, speaking to both whites and blacks"
Where? Like Chimpy, she can't go anywhere there isn't a pre-screened audience....

[tgnyc]

9. Scarily likely scenario

[pitohui]

10. way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

can't we just enjoy the beauty of the moment for a change?

[grytpype]

11. Rice will never be President.

Never. The racist white southern crackers who voted for Bush will never in a million years vote for a black, or a woman, for president. Never.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

36. That's my aunt and uncle you're talking about.

Rice? Powell? Never, ever.

[Unformatted]

44. Never?

Not only would they vote for a black woman, their wives would too.

[Marr]

56. lmao- no way in hell.

You're dreaming.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

47. Exactly. For every white Repub who actually expresses enthusiasm

over the idea of a Condi candidacy (and I think most of that is false enthusiasm and would disappear if confronted with the reality), there's one who would be way less likely to vote for an African American female.

Repubs have invested WAY TOO much in the racism of the "Southern Strategy" to do this. It's a nonstarter. Even if they were dumb enough to do it (and they're not), the racism of so many of their voters will sabotage their strategy.

[rkc3]

12. So you think the South is ready to vote for a black woman?

This would be the same people who shit-canned McCain for his rumored black baby in 2000.

I don't want to be a bigoted Notherner, but it would be a fairly far-fetched scenario.

[grytpype]

18. Racist = Republican.

Not all Repugs are racist, but all racists are Repug. Take out the racists, and what's left? A few millionaires and brazillionaires.

[Dawgs]

33. Southern = Racists

Contrary to what most Northerners want to believe, the South is not the only place with racists.

[pitohui]

22. quote i heard during the jindal/blanco governor's race

this was the race in louisiana which pitted democratic white cajun kathleen blanco against dark-skinned east indian heritage republican bobby jindal

"i don't like votin for a woman but i can't vote for a damn hindoo"

i think if the republicans run a black woman for president then their know-nothing voter base will stay home, the elites will still come out and vote their pocketbook, but the know-nothing who votes against his pocket to vote GOP is not going to come out for condi

just my opinion but the GOP gets white male voters by appealing to racism and gets the rich voter by appealing to pocketbook, if they are suddenly going to reject racism, their racist base has no reason to come out

[LincolnMcGrath]

13. Fear of 'what ifs' and 'bad framing' are why

Dems have been losing for 30 years.

Let them appoint CondiLiar. Hell better yet, let them appoint Jeb.

[Marnieworld]

I'm optimistic

I believe Black voters are much smarter than you're implying. I think it is so understood that there is nothing for them in the Republican party. Nothing. Will they be moved by Condi's skin color or the color of those dying in the streets of thirst in NOLA?

Condi has no credibility with so many documented lies to cite that if they ran her for any elected office it would be a risk.

[stepnw1f]

14. lol

[connecticut yankee]

15. But don't you think

there are a large percentage of Southern white boys who wouldn't vote for her?

1-because she's black

2-because she's a woman.

Also many other bigots around the rest of the country who feel the same?

If it was a race between Condi and Hillary, I think they'd rather stay home than vote for either.

[Nikki Stone 1]

29. Great idea! Let's have Condi vs Hillary and let the 'necks stay home

Might get an intelligent vote out of it. :)

[Horse with no Name]

17. I wouldn't count on it

She was buying shoes when New Orleans drowned.
I don't think many blacks are going to be beholden to that.
She also supports the demise of Affirmative Action.
She used it to pull herself up and now she wants to kick the others on the ladder beneath her off so that they can't do the same.
This is a scenario I wouldn't lose any sleep over.
It won't happen.

[ThoughtCriminal]

19. Rice becoming VP

I don't think this will really help very much with black voters. It might help more with women voters.

But it mostly works as a huge distraction - Historic Appointment to take a bit from all the other bad news and it helps republicans feel better about themselves. Everyone will want a picture of themselves with Rice - nobody wants to be in a pic with Bush anymore.

[ET Awful]

20. Not likely. The Farragamo/Katrina equation will keep her from

catching on with black voters.

[BurtWorm]

Cheney is not going to resign.

He's going to weather the storm, beaten, bloodied, and unbowed. He's a reptile with no feeling for anyone but himself. The only way he'll be removed is if the more serious cases against him--the constitutional cases--come back to tear his ass off of him. In which case, there won't be much the GOP can do, short of enlisting Jesus Christ Almighty, to make voters want to stomach them for another minute in the Oval Office.

[Coastie for Truth]

21. From the corner of El Camino Real and University near Hoover Tower

In focus groups for Senator -- in her "home region" - she was Provost of Stanford and was at Hoover - (Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley) she ran behind

Diane Feinstein
Barbara Boxer
Tom Campbell
Steve Poizner

She is not a vote getter.

[Quakerfriend]

23. A possible senario but,

Condi would not be able to sway the black voters, if she were to run.

I think the admin has already shown the blacks in this country just how little they care for them.

[DelawareValleyDem]

24. No. The GOP nominee next time will not be a single, black female

And I doubt it will happen in any of our lifetimes.

[mattclearing]

25. In a word, no.

The black community thinks Condi is Darth Vader. Aaron McGruder's words.

Dick shot a man in the face. His chief of staff has resigned. His President's deputy chief of staff will resign before elections.

The Iraq War, which Condi is synonymous with, is a disaster, disapproved of by a majority of Americans.

And the Republicans running in the fall are all going to fall in line for their failed President.

Not to mention that Condi doesn't campaign.

[H2O Man]

26. silly n/t

[applegrove]

27. No. If Cheney retired and replaced by anyone - Mr. Roadblock is

gone. Rice or McCain are not going to be working as closely with Rummy. The whole thing will unravel even sooner.

[jazzwinders]

28. Not a chance

We blacks will not vote for Condi just because she's black.

[smoogatz]

30. Please.

Thing 1: Cheney ain't resigning. Unless Whittington dies, Cheney's sticking to his story (I'm really sorry Harry stuck his face between me and my quail) and staying put. And if Bushco have anything to say about it, Whittington's going to live to be a hundred-freaking-ninety years old.

Thing 2: If Cheney did resign, he--not Bush--would pick Bush's new VP. Whether he'd pick Condi or not is an open question--there are lots of other possibilities, seems to me. Condi's a lot of things, but she's no hard-ball throwing power-broker.

Thing 3: As others have pointed out, I don't think Condi's going to warm the cockles of the white, southern born-again crowd that are allegedly responsible for Bush's "election." I doubt she'd win the nomination, let alone a national election against any reasonable Democrat.

[Kilroy003]

31. I'd vote for Condi...

Only because she's a black woman...

It's damn time we opened those doors.

The Dem's would just have to convince Oprah to run as a counter...

[smoogatz]

35. That's ridiculous.

What the hell do race and gender have to do with it? She's shown herself repeatedly to be a corrupt, incompetent nitwit, willing to play the happy token to Bush's racist regime. She's done about as much for the black community as Paul Wolfowitz.

[Kilroy003]

37. I happen to vote based on truly ridiculous ideals.

In 2000, I cast my vote for Nader/LaDuke, simply because I thought it was high time that a Native American (and a woman) be given a chance at governing...

That's just the way I am...

Take it or leave it.

If it we're a contest between myself or my wife, you can bet your ass I would'nt be voting for myself...

[smoogatz]

40. Yes, you do.

And "take it or leave it" doesn't cut much ice when you post something as goofy as that on a progressive discussion board. If you voted for Rice, you'd basically be voting to extend the racist, imperialist, incompetent, corrupt, anti-constitutional Bush administration. That's not idealistic--it's idiotic.

[maxrandb]

32. A better question would be

How many Repukkklikkkan members of the KKK-lite "Council of Concerned Citizens" would vote for her?

What is her position on abortion?

What is her position on tax-cuts for the wealthy?

What is her position on foreign policy? (or do we already know that)

What is her position on Afirmative Action?

What is her position on Immigration?

What is her position on education?

Why anyone would assume that blacks would vote for Condi just because she is black? It's border-line insulting.

I believe that the first woman, and first black president will come from the Democratic Party. There are too many "lilly-white", faux Christians, woman should be in the kitchen, racist' in the Repuke Party. She would lose more votes from the Repuke base then she could ever hope to make up from the Dems.

How long do you think it would be before Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell started raising suspicious questions about the fact that she's not married?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

34. Most blacks can tell the difference between ice-cream and bullshit.

And, Condi ain't ice-cream.

[mattclearing]

38. Nice drive-by post.

And the answer is still no.

You have to question the thought process that went into this post.

What kind of person learns that the Republican Vice President of the United States has shot a 78 year old man in the face and concocts a totally unbelievable scenario in which it is bad for the Democratic Party.

The OP is probably too busy watching Dick's interview on Faux to bother reading any of these responses.

[Silverhair]

49. Drive-by? LOL ?

Hey, I have 1K+ posts and a star too, so cool it on the accusations. Nor did I watch Cheney's interview. I took a nap.

If you would read my very last sentence, you would understand that this post is not entirely serious.

[mattclearing]

52. I'm sorry...I wasn't entirely serious either, but I was kinda curious as

to whether you'd get the message, seeing as that you hadn't responded to anyone else yet (hence the "drive-by post" comment).

The last bit was really snarky. Sorry for that.

[Silverhair]

60. That's OK. Most of my posts are completely serious, and usually

contrarian to majority opinion. That is for two reasons. Posting in threads I agree with is boring, to me. I enjoy a good back and forth. The second is that I want to challenge what passes for conventional wisdom, even among progressives.

Sometimes I like to throw out a semi-wild idea, just for fun.

In reality, I do believe that most here at DU seriously underestimate the danger that Condi could pose. If she should become POTUS, it would break the ultimate glass ceiling. That would be a powerful temptation to many, not all, but many blacks to put up with everything else for the sake of shattering that ceiling.

People here are people, like all others. Most people will form an opinion, and then will accept information that reinforces their opinion, and will reject information or reasoning that goes against that opinion. So many here have a mental stereotype of conservatives that is different from reality. This causes them to guess wrongly when anticipating precisely what the Republican base will and won't do. They are prejudice, not against black skin, but are very hostile to the black subculture. Condi has shown that she has adopted the majority culture, so their base will accept her.

[jazzwinders]

57. delete

[sendero]

39. It will take..

... a lot of Diebolding to make Condi president IMHO.

Black people are not going to vote for her, that much I am sure of. White racists are not going to vote for her. Folks who arent' ready for a female president are not going to vote for her. Hispanics are not going to vote for her. So where are her votes coming from?

Condi is the least of my worries.

[Ganja Ninja]

41. Or maybe Condi's glaring incompetence will be ...

more obvious than ever as VP. Then again the Republican's in congress may not want another Bush crony in the VP slot and refuse to approve her. I'm sure there will be a lot of jockeying for the job and more than a few people that want it. Cheney's resignation might have the effect of causing a Republican power struggle, making for bitter feelings and creating a split between the Bush faction and other GOP members from blue states.

[The Stranger]

42. EVERYTHING is a disaster for Democrats.

If the Democrats won the Presidency, Senate, House and every legislature and governorship, Faux News would run a segment -- "IS IT A DIASTER FOR THE DEMOCRATS?"

[alcibiades_mystery]

43. Ridiculous

n/t

[Cocoa]

45. I'm not afraid of Condi

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

46. I don't find the Condi running scenario to be AT ALL scary, or credible.

Bring it on.

[rucky]

48. You forgot: 20% closet racist Republicans don't vote...

because Bush put a "negro woman" one heartbeat away from the presidency. Cancels out the generous 10% you predict.

[Julius Civitatus]

50. You assume African Americans like Condi

That's a lot to assume.

[Silverhair]

53. She would be a powerful wedge.

Wedge politics isn't about converting ALL of a block of votes, it is about peeling of some of them. Already 9% of blacks vote Republican. If she could reach another 10 to 15%, that would be a serious part of our base.

[DelawareValleyDem]

55. She'd be more of a wedge to her own party.

Racist Republicans would have a hard time voting for her, and her gender isn't going to help either.

[Greybnk48]

51. My Black friends hate her guts

she's a total sell-out. Add to that the inherent racism in this country, and you have nothing to fear as far as this particular repug is concerned.

[warrens]

54. Condi couldn't get a black vote at gunpoint

She's joined at the hip to Bush, who now has a 2 percent approval rating with blacks.

[Matariki]

58. i posted a similar thought in a roundabout way

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=424815&mesg_id=424815

[SPKrazy]

59. It's My Nightmare!

I've said this before

the repukes want a way to get Condi in there