A new Cold War

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/opinion/2006/January/opinion_January9.xml§ion=opinion&col=

HUMILIATING a great power is always dangerous, even in the best of causes. In 1918, the Western powers defeated Kaiser Wilhelm’s Germany; in 1933, 15 years later, Adolf Hitler came to power. Russia was humiliated by defeat in the Cold War, and the consequent disintegration of the Soviet Union in and after 1991. That is now 15 years ago. snip

A fortnight ago, many observers would have placed Russia fifth among the world’s powers, after the United States, China, the European Union and Japan, in that order; India would probably have been in sixth place. Now Russia has moved up into third place, some would even think into an equal second with China. That is some achievement in 14 days. Of course, reality has preceded the recognition of reality, as it usually does.

The Putin strategy is based on hydrocarbons. In the 19th century, Bismarck’s strategy to expand German power was called realpolitik, the ruthless exploitation of real advantages. President Putin’s strategy could be called oilpolitik, the ruthless exploitation of Russia’s supplies of oil and gas.

Russia has the largest reserves of natural gas and the second-largest reserves of oil in the world. President Putin has established a national monopoly of gas, a national dominance in oil production, a network of trade agreements with oil or gas-producing countries of the former Soviet Union and a strategic system of pipelines. He can, therefore, bargain with his customers on the basis of his control both of oil and gas supplies and of their transport.

Interestingly, this is the same system as John D. Rockefeller created when he built the 19th century Standard Oil monopoly in the United States. Of course, Putin operates on a far larger scale, but the idea is much the same, and it took all the powers of the federal government to break up the Standard Oil monopoly. In Russia, President Putin is the federal government.

[Deja Q]

1. History repeats itself.

I have nothing to lose in your world.

How will people who feel they have something to lose react? With a lot less civility, to say the very least.