MSNBC Live Vote: Will Roe v. Wade be reversed?

[sabra]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11546808/

To you think South Dakota's legislation will lead to a reversal of Roe v. Wade?

* 7451 responses


Yes, the Supreme Court is different than it was several years ago and it will be sympathetic to the issue.
36%

No. The measure will suffer the same fate as many other abortion laws: It will be declared unconstitutional.
64%

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. This one will be overturned, and it likely won't be that close.

Simply because it makes almost no exceptions for extenuating circumstances, there's no way the remaining swing voters on the Court will uphold the law.

[yellowcanine]

2. The wing nuts will get their panties all knotted up if Alito votes to

overturn the law on any grounds. That would be fun to see.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

4. It will indeed...

But I think Alito will uphold, along with Scalia and Thomas.

Roberts may or may not uphold. I have a gut feeling that he won't.

The other will overturn. I'm thinking 6-3 overturning.

[regnaD kciN]

8. We'll know a whole lot more about the SCOTUS future after this case...

If both of Chimpy's boys vote to uphold, you can throw any hopes that one or both will turn out to be "moderate" straight out the window. If eiher of them decides to overturn, there will be reason to believe that the wingnuts won't find this Court the "slam dunk" they had been expecting (not to mention that the screaming from the Religious Reich will be deafening!).

[yellowcanine]

9. Pat "Ayatollah" Robertson might issue another patwa

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

10. Can't wait!!

:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

[regnaD kciN]

11. My only concern...

...is that this was obviously designed by the Religious Reich as a "test case" bill now that they think they have the SCOTUS they want.

They certainly didn't design this law to be overturned. If they thought that the current Court would balk at the lack of externuating circumstances, they would have added a "rape and incest" exception, or something intended to allay those concerns and make it easier for the Justices to swallow.

The fact that this bill was so hard-line strikes me as a not-uneducated guess on the part of its authors that the new Court is in fact sufficiently opposed to abortion that they would approve it as currently written.

[DanCa]

3. We should picket these loons now.

We can't be complacent any more. Nows the time to take the protest to the brown shirts. How do you deal with a bully? You pop 'em hard in the nose and than they'll back down.

[PlanetBev]

5. People just can't seem to believe that the court would overturn Roe

It's just too outrageous to think about. This is a country that's used to rights being given, not taken away.

[gizmo1979]

6. even the wingnuts on the court won't

let this pass.There has to be stipulations about womens health in the bill this court has told them that before.I'm not agreeing with the righties just stating what they have ruled before.

[0rganism]

12. The only reason there are "stipulations for women's health" is Roe

At the times "this court has told them that before", it was staffed by different people. That's why the SD legislation is a direct and somewhat viable attempt to knock Roe v. Wade off the books: by upholding this law, the court can directly void previous caselaw. That is the decision they'll be making, and it will be reflected in their opinions.

Nonetheless, I do think this particular attempt will fail 5-4.

[bain_sidhe]

7. My guess, it won't even make it to SCOTUS

Because if it was fast tracked up to them, they'd have to rule on it before the 2008 elections. Instead, the Circuit court will overturn the law based on the fact that they have to follow precedent, and the SC will deny certification to hear the case. Status quo for now, because they don't want to risk having a Democratic President elected in 2008 - Both Stevens and Bader-Ginsburg are likely to retire during that term (although Stevens might not even be able to hold out that long).

Just a guess. I could be wrong. Hope I'm not.

[regnaD kciN]

13. Maybe they're even hoping...

...that the case will get thrown out in the manner you describe before November. That would give the pro-choicers a false sense of security so that they could relax for the midterms, while the pro-lifers would have all the more reason to get fired up and vote in Republicans to make sure Bush's next appointment will be decisive.

It's a possible strategy, but I tend to doubt it.

:shrug: