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Anyone else remember Reagan's Stock Market Crash??

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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 09:45 PM
Original message
Anyone else remember Reagan's Stock Market Crash??
It happened in October of 1987; the market crashed:

"On Monday, October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 508.32 and closed at a record-breaking low of 1,738.40 points (Arbel & Kaff, pg 61). This date, now known to the world as Black Monday is documented as the worst stock market crash in history. The 22.9% loss in 1987 almost doubles the percentage lost in the Crash of 1929, which was 12.82% (Arbel & Kaff, pg 61). Many stock market analysts believe that the crash was set off by a number of events, that include the poor choices of portfolio insurance professionals and program trading. One of the results of the crash was the creation of circuit breakers, which are techniques that restrict trading times in the market when market value is very high and unstable (The Economist, pg. 78). Communication between stock market regulators and investors has increased along with the access of the market to its investors."

Link to school which studied this:

http://www.ncs.pvt.k12.va.us/ryerbury/pasc/pasc.htm

The largest crash in its history, one that prompted all sorts of controls on the market, such as if it goes down too quickly, the market is shut down. That happened under Reagan, and there were all sorts of repercussions, such as to the real estate market. The real estate market went way down after that, too; we had bought a condo in NY in April of 1987 for 65K. After the market crash, it was worth 19K.

Just wondering if anyone else remembers, because according to today's republicans, trickle-down economics and tax cuts are FABULOUS for the economy, just like they were under Reagan. The MSM and the repubs have to bury this piece of history, or no one would ever vote for them again.

And, an aside: why are the Feds going to stop raising interest rates?? Does it have anything to do with the bond markets signalling a coming recession that I heard about??
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Jane Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 09:47 PM
Response to Original message
1. I do. And I've never really recovered from it, financially.
n/t
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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 09:49 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. It took us 15 years to recover
from that day.
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Lindacooks Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 09:49 PM
Response to Original message
2. Oh yeah, I remember it.
I actually owned stock at the time, too. It was very scary because nobody knew what was going to happen, and Reagan, in his usual doddering way, shrugged and replied 'you got me' when asked what happened. Someone more clever than I am pointed out that that was exactly the right answer.
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quisp Donating Member (926 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 09:58 PM
Response to Original message
4. I remember it and
I remember what I was doing. I was young and in college and had a fantastic job as a mail clerk. My boss, however, lost her entire retirment nest egg. She was planning on retiring within 6 months. I saw her that night and her face was ashen. I could tell she was just sick.

I thought then, "this crash is just cleaning out the penny ante players, the rich are cleaning up on this one." I still believe that's what happened.

and yes the inverse relationship between short and long term bonds is not a good sign.
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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Thanks for the story
and the information.
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InsultComicDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #4
27. I remember what I was doing too
I needed minor surgery and was in the hospital.

My doctor was in an incredibly foul-tempered mood and I wondered if I should postpone it. Fortunately he did a good job.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 01:17 AM
Response to Reply #4
35. It happens every generation..
Whenever a sizeable chunk of "middle-classers" have managed to get a bit ahead, the rich folks yank the leash..HARD !
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 06:29 PM
Response to Reply #4
45. I remember it too...
And very similar to quisp's situation in that though I lost my job, my boss never recovered.

I remember distinctly how he tried to ease my worries while handing me a pink slip. He said, "It will be worse for me. I'm upper-mgmt. making it extremely hard to find another position, less I relocate." He was heartsick, a broken man. He also stated how much easier it was for me to find a position in my field. His type of job (at that time) wasn't the kind one would see listed in the Want-Ads. His biggest worry was the BIG MORTGAGE he was in.

And he was a good man - best boss I ever had.

In other words, he had way more to loose in his mid-upper position. Way more.
Wondering now whatever happened to that patient soul... :(
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
5. Most certainly
I also remember how his tax cuts LEAPED over that stock market crash, 10% Bush unemployment, and landed smack dab in the middle of the 90's!!!
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HughBeaumont Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 07:45 AM
Response to Reply #5
39. That's funny, some girl I rode home with who was an econ major
was saying that very same thing, that the effects of Reaganomics finally worked during the Clinton administration. Only she was serious because I guess that's what she learned in her econ classes; like the rich and the Fed were completely innocent of manipulation, and like Bush41's horrid economic record and debt increase was ignored. Clinton had a great economy because of Saint Ronnie's doing. Ooooookay. Small wonder why I'm never going to be an Econ major if that's what's being taught.

BTW, she's a Kerry supporter, but too young to remember just how bad the Reagan/Bush years were for the middle class and small businesses.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. That's what they say
Although I didn't think that was actually being taught in econ classes. High school maybe? I can fully imagine our local neocon senior class econ teacher saying that. But hopefully not anyone at the college level. It defies all common sense and logic. It's very frustrating to have this stuff out there. I think DC Dems underestimate the power of this foolishness.
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
6. Rubbish. Never happened. You're just one of those revisionists.
The economy boomed throughout the wonderful presidency of the blessed Ronald. He proved the validity of the Laffer Curve and he restored America's pride and dignity and he taught us how to blame the preceding administration for everything and he defeated the Soviet Union and he liberated Nazi death camps and he cleared brush and he rode horses and he grinned from beneath his cowboy hat and he brought about mourning in America and he freed the hostages in Iran and he saved Greanada from the Communists and he created 500 million jobs in his first term alone and now he sits at the right hand of God.
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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Didn't he sell arms to someone too?
I have some fuzzy recollection about him selling arms, maybe to someone up North, a baby deer was involved, and they were in the Hall?? Is this ringing a bell or am I again blaspheming Saint Reagan??
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #9
25. He sold arms to the Founding Fathers
A.k.a. the Contras, whom Saint Ronnie called the Moral Equivalent of the Founding Fathers. I think I'm remembering that correctly.
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #9
46. Oh. Do you mean those testy Iran-Contra Scandals?
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petgoat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #46
50. The Death Squads in El Salvador and Guatemala were just
duckie, too. It's always nice to know you're supporting
the people with the moral authority to get out and do whatever
has to be done, no matter how unpleasant it is. :sarcasm:
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radio4progressives Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #6
22. Lol! Whew! You really had me going there for a minute...
just until the point where he defeated the Soviet Union and Liberated Nazi Death camps - (i don't know shite about what the Laffer Curve is) I thought i was going to do some serious battle with ya... ;)

:hi: :toast:
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. I was hoping it was sufficiently overdone . . . :)
For the Laffer Curve, see here. We owe a lot of our present misery to that idea.
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FloridaPat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:04 PM
Response to Original message
7. I remember it. I remember home mortgage rates over 20%.
I remember trickle down theory that didn't have anything left for the bottom. I remember tax simplification that lowered taxes on the middle class - another lie on both parts. I remember an unemployment rate of 25% if all people that were actually unemployed were counted.

I sure miss Clinton.
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Joy Anne Donating Member (830 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
19. Reagan unemployment figures
That was when the Department of Labor started adding people in the military to the total of the employed workforce. With a stroke of the pen, they lowered unemployment 2 percentage points.

What a miracle worker, that Reagan!
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KT2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #19
30. thanks for bringing that up
very few people realized that happened, especially the media. I think they mentioned it the first month and then forgot about it.
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KT2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. Remember it well
lesson learned: the people who start those sell-offs make the huge money - planned action each time it happens. I would love to see who sets these things in motion as there was another one in 2001.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #19
32. I remember that
But I couldn't remember exactly what they did. That makes Bush's 10% in 92 particularly awful though. I bet there were people who said the Depression was a bunch of hype too though.
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:06 PM
Response to Original message
10. Interesting that the stock market was tanking until the announcement by
the Fed about the freeze on raising interest rates.

It used to be that conventional wisdom was..As January goes, so goes the year. I guess gwb and friends are trying another sleigh of hand to make it look like 2006 is going to be a fabulous economic year for all of us. MKJ
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AuntiBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #10
47. It's Tanking Now...
Or so says MANY Real Estate agents I know. They're *extremely* worried and *&Co bashers.

Except for their big broker-bosses.
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TygrBright Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
11. Lordy! Do I ever!!
I was Development Director for an anti-poverty agency back then. I was feeling QUITE happy, because I'd just gotten a substantial grant from the Gannett Foundation, one of the first private foundation grants the agency'd received. It was in the form of stock, valued (on October 16th) at about $25,000. A board member with financial smarts recommended we sell the stock immediately, but the certificate arrived on Friday afternoon. Not having an account with any brokerage, or any broker working for us, we had to physically take the certificate to a discount broker downtown and have them do the transaction for us.

We were supposed to do it Monday. The agency's Fiscal Director went with me, certificate and signed affidavit from the Board Chair clutched in his hot little hand. We got downtown and decided to have lunch. As we came out of lunch and turned onto the street where all the big banks & brokerages were, he glanced up at a running ticker outside one of the establishments. Suddenly I noticed he wasn't walking beside me any more. I stopped, and looked around. There he was, rooted to the sidewalk, looking up at the lighted ticker, his face white as a sheet.

Our "$25,000" grant was now worth about $18,000 and falling... we ran all the way to the discount brokerage, and of course everything was complete pandemonium. By the time we actually got the sell executed I think we realized about sixteen thousand and change.

Yes, I remember the Reagan crash, alright.

shudderingly,
Bright
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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. That's amazing - to see your $$ decrease
right before you eyes. Wow.
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Jayhawk Lib Donating Member (587 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
12. Terrible Economy
The economy here in Wichita Kansas is terrible. This is as bad as I have ever seen it. It has surly got to get better but I would not bet on it....
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newportdadde Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
13. I don't remember 87 but I remember 2000-01.
I bought a chunk of oracle and road that POS from 30+ to 12. I finally sold out and and now in Oil ETFs since summer of 04. Even with those returns I'm still not back even.

Your right about the inverse on the bond that is a bad omen. Factor in rising food/gas/health care/housing costs and then all of the Interest only loans and ARMs out there and I think we are heading for the crapper.

I'm not sure if the fed was genuine in stopping the rate increase or if they just threw out some nice verbage to help prop up the markets after last weeks less then stellar outing.
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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Don't forget the increase in the minimum of
credit card payments that will be surprising some consumers this month, no?
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AlCzervik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:20 PM
Response to Original message
14. ugh, i feel like i'm reliving the terrible 80's, the rise of The Christian
coalition and the stock market tanking.
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EVDebs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:33 PM
Response to Original message
15. What caused the Stock Market Crash of 1987 ?
Edited on Wed Jan-04-06 10:45 PM by EVDebs
"A number of explanations have been offered as to the cause of the crash, although none may be said to have been the sole determinant. Among these are computer trading and derivative securities, illiquidity, trade and budget deficits, and overvaluation. Below we have quoted representative analyses..."

What Caused the Stock Market Crash of 1987?
By Jennifer Itskevich
Ms. Itskevich is a student at Rutgers University and an intern at HNN.
http://hnn.us/articles/895.html

and then there's this related to the junk bonds and general Republican laissez fair attitude about market corruption (just ignore it!)

""The SEC was unable to halt the shady IPOs and conglomerations, so the market continued to rise unabated throughout the 80s. Even institutional investors and large mutual funds, increasing their dependency on program trading, began to adhere to the mantra, “if a stock isn't gaining big time, find one that is.”

Then, in early 1987, there was a rash of SEC investigations into insider trading. For the most part, people were aware of the tendency of Wall Street to look out for itself, but the barrage of SEC investigations, rattled investors. By October, investors decided to move out of the crooked game and into the more stable environment offered by bonds or, in some cases, junk bonds.""

The Crash of 1987
http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes6.asp

The current era of 'the Populist stock market' is quickly being realized as fake. Thomas Frank's excellent book One Market Under God goes a long way in bursting that particular bubble. Please read

The myth of the populist stock market
By David Callahan
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0108/p09s01-coop.htm

""Can Americans possibly fall once more for this nonsense? Maybe. The scandals of recent years, most lately in the mutual-fund industry, have done little to debunk the notion that Wall Street is geared toward ordinary investors and that stocks offer a universal path to wealth creation. At the height of the boom, however, the bottom three-quarters of American households owned less than 15 percent of all stock. Barely a third of households hold more than $5,000 in stock. Most Americans have more debt on their credit cards than money in their mutual funds.""

The vast majority of stock is held by institutional investors and mutual funds:

""It is generally accepted that the inclusion of common stocks in the General Motors Pension Plan in 1950 marked the beginning of that powerful trend toward institutional ownership. Stock ownership by private pensions, zero percent as 1950 began, rose to almost 8 percent in 1965 and to 24 percent in 1985. While ownership by private plans has now eased to 17 percent, ownership by public pension plans has risen to 9 percent, bringing current retirement plan ownership to 26 percent of all U.S. stocks."*

In a parallel trend, mutual fund ownership of equities also burgeoned. Since 1950, fund ownership has risen from about 3 percent of corporate equities to today's 25 percent (including some 5 percent through fund shares held in defined benefit and defined contribution plans). When we include other institutional owners such as insurance companies and endowment funds, institutional investors as a group now own some $9.3 trillion of U.S. stocks, or 66 percent of the total. Those individual owners, who held virtually 100 percent of all shares when Berle and Means' book was published, now constitute just 34 percent of the total. Sea change is an understatement; we have truly witnessed a revolution in stock ownership.""

The Ownership of Corporate America -- Rights and Responsibilities

Remarks by John C. Bogle
Founder and Former Chairman, The Vanguard Group
20th Anniversary Meeting of the Council of Institutional Investors
April 11, 2005, Washington, DC
http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20050411.htm

Also refer to this:

"In the U.S., stock is held by almost 49 percent of households, encompassing some 78 million individuals. This startling figure once might have been seen as a reassuring barometer of widespread ownership in the capitalist system, but for Mitchell it masks a discouraging reality: only a tiny fraction of investment by stockholders serves the socially useful end of bankrolling new ventures; most serves to feed the endless daily churning of stock prices. Almost 20 percent of daily trades on the New York Stock Exchange and over 75 percent of those on the Internet are by day traders, whom Mitchell calls "the mercenaries of the corporate world, claiming allegiance to no corporation at all and moving in for the kill to take advantage of price movements with speed and stealth."

Corporate Irresponsibility: America's Newest Export. - book review
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1058/is_7_119/ai_84840971


The top-heaviness of wealth concentration in the US is becoming more evident daily. Kevin Phillips' Wealth and Democracy shows us this in spades. And right now the only thing keeping the economy afloat is the current year's Capital Repatriation program to the tune of around $350 billion, money that was offshored (along with the jobs) but returned at a 5% tax (instead of around 35% if it had stayed put ASA Repatriation Scorecard

www.americanshareholders.com/ news/asa-repat-08-19-05.pdf ).

The Japanese were paying most of the debt back then; now it's the Chinese buying our 'junk bonds' or should I say T-bills.







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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. Good article - thanks!! n/t
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Ksec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
20. I remember lots of things reagan brought with him
Trickle down garbage, I dont remember, Arms to Iran illegally, economy totally tanked, Unemployment, Union busting ...I could go on.

Its funny how this mass murderer got his name all over buildings and airports all around the country. The propaganda during Reagan was incredible. The meida and the reicht actually believed he brought down the Soviets. That claim was ridiculous.
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Osito Donating Member (27 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 02:48 AM
Response to Reply #20
36. Hmmm...my memory is usually pretty good.
1) Do you remember Zbigniew Brzezinski? Carter's NSA chief? He is part of a group who orchestrated the fall of the Soviet Union by bankrupting the regime. He angled to get USSR involved in Afghanistan. He also proposed an arms race that would keep the Soviets impoverished. How do I know? Brzezinski wrote about the tactics prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Try reading the "Grand Failure" which pretty much predicted the collapse several years before it happened. Reagan was pursuing the same strategy as Brezinski wrote about. Seems to me that if a person explains his strategy up front, gives specifics reasons and milestones, then history unfolds in just that way, it would stand to reason that that person might be right.

2) "economy totally tanked"? Huh? Would this be the same economy that generated record tax revenues after tax rate cuts? This doesn't wash. Economy didn't tank under Reagan. Now, if you want to say that skyrocketing deficits in Reagan's second term led to economic difficulties later, I'm with you.

3) Union busting? I guess you are referring to the Air traffic Controllers. (Please note that I worked with union ATC's in the early 1980's.) Are you forgetting that he was a union leader himself? That he supported unions more times than not as Governor of California? I am unhappy with the ATC situation, but I'd like to think I was honest enough to recognize what really happened.


I'm not a "they're ALL bad, and we're ALL good" kind of guy. More like a "they're MOSTLY bad, and we're MOSTLY good" kind. If we want to be taken seriously, and get back into power, we are going to have to be careful about broad-brushing everything. We have plenty of good arguments, we don't need to be pushing "iffy" ideas.
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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 07:20 AM
Response to Reply #36
37. Real Estate market totally tanked
at least in the New York area.
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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #36
38. And that Reagan was the first to break the unions
and believe in tax cuts to the wealthy will help the poor, and said "I don't remember" during Iran-Contra are NOT "iffy" ideas.
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Osito Donating Member (27 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #38
41. I'll "half-agree" on the unions. On the others, I didn't disagree.
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Itchinjim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #36
43.  The decline of the unions started with the ATC firings.
Was union busting Ronnie's intent? I don't know, but he sure as shit did nothing to discourage it. And I believe that he later on denounced his own union, The Screen Actors Guild, as a hotbed of communists after ratting a few of them out.
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Osito Donating Member (27 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #43
54. I was a Steelworker in the late 1960's, and...
I guarantee you the unions were already in trouble. If you want to pick a start, try the tug-of-war between Attorney General Kennedy and Jimmy Hoffa. After Kennedy exposed corruption, whether correctly or not, the unions continued to lose power.
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Itchinjim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-06-06 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #54
60. The unions may have been in legal problems of their own making
Edited on Fri Jan-06-06 11:47 AM by Itchinjim
before 1980, but there was no organized effort by corporate America to break the power of unions. It was Reagan's labor hostle policies that encouraged them. I was a Teamster in 1980, and after the ATC's were fired you could feel the change almost immediately. By 1985 I was a locked out Teamster and by 1987 I was no longer a Teamster, yet I was still doing the same type of work.
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AspenRose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
21. I was a freshman in college when it happened
My parents were thrown for a major loop
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uppityperson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
24. Was in a teleconferenced college class, another teacher kept coming in
and writing # on the board, over and over and over. It was difficult to remain focused on what was going on in class. Finally, the teacher (elsewhere coming over the teleconfernce thingy) gave up and let us all listen to the radio. It was wild, both the fact it was happening and trying to figure out what it meant.
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Armstead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 11:00 PM
Response to Original message
26. Yep -- The country's mood fell to shit in the late 80's and early 90's
I remember the crash and its repercussions. The economy became mired in a long, gloomy recession that ultimately sank George Bush Sr.

It is funny how that has slipped into the memory hole.
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bbinacan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-04-06 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
28. Worst one day drop? Yes. Worst Crash? No, the
1929 crash was by far the worst. The Dow dropped from 381.17 in Oct. of 28 to 41.22 by July of 32. That's over 89%. The market in 87 was only down slightly, or maybe even up, depending on the index. 87 pales in comparison to other market drops. Jeez.:banghead:
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 12:28 AM
Response to Original message
29. christ how could we forget?
but we still need higher interest rates, i'm sorry, but these low interest rates are killing people who have to invest for income rather than for masturbation and fantasies of one day being millionaire purposes

low interest rates pick the pocket of seniors who can't invest in long-term investments like equities because, guess what, they do not have 20 years ahead of them just to get even

we've only gone 5 years now treading water, we could easily go another 15 before DOW is profitable again as opposed to actually losing money after inflation

if you are retired, 20 years is more than you got left, you need income TODAY

the interest rates have been too low for a long time, sorry

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Sydnie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 12:42 AM
Response to Original message
33. I remember it well
I was in the hospital after giving birth to my first child. I have the local newspapers from that date saved for that reason. I was hoping that my child had not been born under a bad moon!
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Osito Donating Member (27 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 01:12 AM
Response to Original message
34. Sure I remember.
Edited on Thu Jan-05-06 01:23 AM by Osito
I was heavily invested at the time. I woke up early to listen to the news, because there had been some problems in Japan earlier the same day. After hearing of the Japanese "crash", I was out of the market in 15 minutes, except for one stock that I thought wouldn't fall enough to justify the "sell then re-buy" costs. I was reinvested fully within a month. The stock I held was up 10% by year's end. If you were truly interested in what happened, try investigating how much of the early selling was programmed trading, triggered by the Nikei dip. The market bounced back to record levels in a very short time. Not a "crash" in my definition. I can understand how some people got out late, taking a large loss, then were frightened to get back in. It would take a long time to recover one's investment in that circumstance. There were temporary setbacks in some real estate markets, as some people tried to cover their losses, but not nationwide. Wasn't even a blip in Southern California that I noticed, although California was having some problems unrelated to the stock market.

The underlying economy wasn't bad. In fact, the underlying economy was so strong that the stock market bounced back quickly. If you check throughout history, crashes are always associated with speculation - overly optimistic speculation, that is.

Three related points:

1) Why do I keep hearing that the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs caused the 1929 crash? Logic would indicate not. First, tariffs were common back then. Second, the tariffs only applied to 6% of the value of US trade that year. So, how could that possibly topple the economies of the world?

2) At any given time, there are "experts" who are predicting a recession, and other "experts" who are predicting an economic expansion. I'm not sure hearing a prediction is worth anything. Back when Clinton was President, economic growth hovered around 2.2% and was declared the best economy in decades. For the past several years, economic growth has ranged from 3% to more than 4%, but the economy is in trouble?

3) The Federal Reserve controls interest almost exclusively. They are focused solely on inflation. They have already demonstrated that they will continue to fight the spectre of inflation, even to the point of causing a recession and will not drop interest rates to stimulate the economy out of a recession until it is shown that the recession has smothered inflation. Greenspan spoke in favor of the policies of Clinton, and spoke in favor of the policies of Bush, then did what he wanted anyway. The economy is not the result of the President, no matter who is in power. Altough presidential policies may have an effect, the beast (economy) is more complicated than that.


While I may be liberal in certain public policy issues, I think economics operates on its own principles, and doesn't respond to political "messaging" from either side. If you want to be critical, then address the free-trader's belief that unrestrained capitalism is benevolent by nature!
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bunny planet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
42. Ah yes I remember is well, bought a NYC coop apartment for 114K, couldn't
even get an offer for 36K on it after that crash. I had to wait 13 years to be able to sell it at a small profit.
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 06:23 PM
Response to Original message
44. It was bizarre as i recall
I was out in california working a contract at Tandem computers at the time, having
just finished a contract doing systems and performance tuning for NASDAQ's SOES
(small order execution system), and the MSI queues for the main order match.
"order match" is exchange parlance for "trade"... when a buy and a sell order "match"
in logical criteria... the actual software system is a small expert system that compares
these criteria in real-time streaming out various data streams as a result, some public,
some private.

Well, i called the computer operations center at nasdaq to find out how the systems
performance was working. At the time, data files on super-mini's were much like mainframe
ones, with certain file-system allocation requirements. One of these was called "maxextents",
and was related to the maximum number of non-contiguous data blocks in a file. When a file
reached max-extents on a running application, it had to be shut down.

WEll, the order-queues in to nasdaq were reaching max-extents, and when they were shut down,
the fault tolerant queue managers lost the order book (means all open orders)... and the
exchange shut down. I had allocated the extents based on how managememt designed the
fault tolerance of the exchange, which was to provide 2 times as much file space as ever
previously used by the exchagne in 1 day... well, that theory failed the exchange that
day.

So i recall that day, standing there in sunny silicon valley a but bummed out that the
performance tuning project failed under duress.
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gardenista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 06:35 PM
Response to Original message
48. I can never forget
I was helping my grandmother close on her house sale.

The buyers were hit hard, and it became doubtful that they could close.

This was an extremely stressful situation for my grandmother, who also was hit hard.

And I am pleased to report that she did *not* vote for Reagan the second time around.
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 07:16 PM
Response to Original message
49. Ah, yes. Trickle down economics. They drink wine, pee on your head, and
it trickles down ...
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SmokingJacket Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 07:46 PM
Response to Original message
51. According to my friend's dad, people were jumping out of windows.
I remember it quite well.
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happydreams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 07:54 PM
Response to Original message
52. And the S&L scandal, INSLAW, Iran-Contra. nt
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kerry-is-my-prez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
53. Yep - I was working with investment accts - it was a mess!
It took us months and a lot of overtime to straighten out the mess because people were going crazy with all the selling and buying that was going on.
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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 10:13 PM
Response to Original message
55. So - shouldn't we be talking about this more??
Next time I hear about trickle-down economics, I am going to bring up the terrible effects of the Reagan years.

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dryan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. Remember it very well.....
the man I worked for at the time lost everything. I had some small investments that overnight became worthless. It took me over 10 years to accumulate my savings again to that level.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #55
57. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-05-06 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #57
58. But Bush's RWNM is always talking about
trickle-down and how it worked then, and is working now. You must not listen to too much right wing talk radio!! (Lucky you!)
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rman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-06-06 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
59. Isn't that the "let them eat ketchup" guy?
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Blue Diadem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-06-06 11:55 AM
Response to Original message
61. I remember, I'd just sold what few stocks I had
so I did ok, but a few of my former co-workers had to put off retirement.
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greiner3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-06-06 04:11 PM
Response to Original message
62. Oh yes, too bad I remember the brain dead (now dead);
Bad actor too. I heard that when he was married to Jane, pre dragon lady, that ronnie was so left that the rumors had it that he was a commie! Then he got religion, had the affair, divorced and ended up with nancy. Bad choices all around!
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