Uh,uh. Conservatives ahead in polls in Canada.

[Swede]

Maybe after the election up here,we'll get to join you guys in Iraq.

[MrModerate]

1. Canadian conservatives . . .

How do they compare to "conservatives" down here?

[still_one]

2. at least you have a parliment where you can have a vote of no confidence

[AX10]

3. Swede, how far ahead are they?

I heard from another poster that there lead has come to early and the Liberals are about to hit back hard. What is going on?

[Swede]

5. One poll has them up 6%.

Our neocon leader Stephen Harper said we should have joined the US in the Iraq invasion.

[AX10]

7. Which poll?

[Swede]

8. The CBC said tonight,but I didn't catch it.

I will google and link right away.

[AX10]

9. Thanks

[Swede]

11. Here's one that has them up by 4%.

Not sure where the CBC got their numbers.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/10460

[AX10]

12. I'm sorry to hear this.

I hope the Liberals fight hard. It will be horrible that IT becomes you "leader".

[Spazito]

19. I think it is the Strategic Counsel one and, if so, they are suspect

They are known to ask very slanted questions. Here is a link about their methodology:

Portrayed as authoritative, the sensitively timed survey said to be highly biased in approach.

On the Friday before the tightest provincial election facing British Columbia this decade, Canada’s most influential newspaper published dramatic poll numbers that appear to be based on biased methodology.

“This is unethical,” Vancouver pollster Angus McAllister told The Tyee. “The Globe and Mail ought to be responsible enough not to publish a poll where the ballot question is preceded by 14 questions that influence people’s answers.”

The poll, which was released on Friday the 13th, predicted that the BC Liberal Party would beat the New Democrats by a 13 per cent margin on May 17. Co-sponsored by The Globe and Mail as well as CTV, the poll was conducted by a Toronto firm called The Strategic Counsel.

The wide lead found by the Strategic Counsel poll not only exceeded both the 8-point lead predicted by an Ipsos-Reid poll and the 5-point lead predicted by a Mustel Group poll (both of which were conducted the same week), it also differed from those polls in that its Liberal lead exceeded its margin of error. At a critical moment in the campaign, the Globe’s 13-point prediction provided an appearance of invincibility that buoyed BC Liberals and demoralized New Democrats.

more

http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2005/05/16/GlobePollUnethical/print.html

[WritingIsMyReligion]

4. How conservative are the conservatives up there?

Anything like our neocons?? (Who really aren't conservative at all, just nutty...)

[Swede]

6. Harper had a hard on for joining in the Iraq invasion.

I think he's pretty far right.

[kevinbgoode]

10. I've been suspicious of his motives for a long time. . .

and the way Conservatives have been reaping money from American wingnuts for their campaigns makes me pause - the only hope if they win is that they cannot push their agenda and cannot gain support from the other three major parties. I read somewhere that the Liberal's problem is the flight of moderates to the NDP.

[Swede]

14. We have a left party and a liberal party fighting for votes.

Which may let the right slip into power. (I cannot believe we'd ever vote them into a majory however. Our Parliamentary system up here would have the Conservatives beholden to another party.)

[StClone]

18. This has been think tanked for a while

THe NRA, influence money and NeoCons coming to the Canucks whether they like it or not. If you loved Canada well take a look because these guys mean business. Gun producers alone look to flood Canada for profits.

[Telly Savalas]

26. Given the spike in gun violence in the last year

these folks are out of their minds if they think they can get any traction. Gun control may be unpopular in areas that are already Conservative strongholds, but as far as I know, in ridings that are actually in play, voters want fewer guns, not more.

[StClone]

29. In a well-educated populace

The factual arguments against guns may work.

In the U.S. emphasis on the interpretation of the 2nd Amendment right to protect yourself implicitly requiring guns in society whether you like it or not. In Wisconsin for example 75% of the population does not want Conceal and Carry yet it was within a whisker of being put through.

The power machinery that wants the money and guns is relentless. The way their manipulation works is to cite the increase in guns and scare people into believing that the criminals are out there so you better be armed.

And, it works. In the U.S. most people believe gun violence is more prevalent than the actual rate. In Canada citing the increase in gun violence may be a set up to push the meme that laws and the cops can't protect you...but a gun can! Be prepared. Not all will buy into it but enough will and then the idea that a majority does is out there aided by Conservative nuts in Government.

[Telly Savalas]

30. The people that buy into that (or potentially would)...

mostly live in ridings where the Conservatives already have a tight grip. In Ontario, where there are enough contested ridings to nearly decide the election, the consensus is that guns are bad. I haven't heard anybody pushing the "citizens should arm themselves" line.

[StClone]

33. Good to hear

Citizens should arm themselves is firmly held by enough in the U.S. to make widespread handguns a reality. Thankfully it hasn't gotten to Canada yet. May it never. Good luck friend.

[Telly Savalas]

25. Flight of moderates to the NDP?

If you'd construe the Liberals abandonment of social justice causes to be a hard turn to the right, then yeah, I guess you could say that moderates are turning to the more left-leaning NDP.

The Liberal's two main problems are (1) their difficulty with handling accusations of corruption and (2) that they've been in power so long. On the latter point, it's the case that rightly or wrongly for any problem raised the problem opposition parties can say "the Liberals have had 12 years to deal with this, but they've failed."

As far as the Conservatives getting "help" from U.S. wingnuts, this only aids the Liberals. For the most part the Canadian electorate has a strong distrust for the American Right. The more the south-of-the-border wingnuts get involved, the easier it is for the Liberals to make a campaign theme out of it, and the easier it is for them to win.

It's a volatile situation, there's 2 weeks left, and another round of debates (which might get more of an audience since the English isn't on a Friday night during X-mas season like last time). The Liberals will put it into 5th gear trying to paint Harper as the far-right extremist he is. Don't expect Harper's lead to hold up. My only concern is that the fear-mongering will result in people in safe ridings to abandon the NDP and make a faux strategic vote for the Liberals. What's messed up is that there are a number of ridings where the Liberals are the 3rd party, so such behaviour only helps the Conservatives.

[Nomen Tuum]

13. Is this enough of a lead to give Harper a majority?

If it is, what will happen when Harper moves to eliminate gay and lesbian marriages?

[Swede]

16. He wants to reopen that too.

These guys are just bad news all around.

[AX10]

21. I can't believe that this is happening.

I thought that Canadians learned from the horrors of Mulroney?

[Nomen Tuum]

22. Sweede, could Harper eliminate gay marriage with Orders-in-Council?

If I remember right, when Clark beat Trudeau in 1979 and didn't have a majority, he used the Orders in Council for the maximum time (6 months) before Parliament convened. Right when the Commons convened, Trudeau and Broadbent joined forces to bring Clark down with a no-confidence vote. Then Trudeau was returned to power.

Am I right that Harper could repeal gay and lesbian marriages this way?

[Wetzelbill]

15. Canadian Fascists would be Green Party members here

:)

Seriously, I was just kidding. I hope it turns around for you guys.

[Swede]

17. Actually our Green Party would be your Libertarians.

I think so anyway. I think there are a couple Green Canadian DUers on here that might be more helpful.

[GreenPartyVoter]

23. Nah. Greens are Greens pretty much the world over. :^)

http://www.greens.org/

[Swede]

24. Well check out these post in the Canada forum

I remember one Green DUer saying he was a social liberal and a conservative when taxes where involved.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php

[Wetzelbill]

27. actually I was paraphrasing Dave Foley

:) He said something like that a few years ago.

[Nutmegger]

20. Hopefully the Liberal Party will be victorious

I'm proud that our neighbors to the north resisted and continues to resist the world bully. All you guys have to do is to look down here and see what these neocon bastards have done to this place.

[DanCa]

28. Is the continental pendulum swinging?

America will become more liberal in next years elections and canada will become less Liberal

[Telly Savalas]

31. No.

The (temporary) boost in support for the Conservative Party is a reflection of the electorate's frustration with the perceived corruption of the Liberal government, not an indication that they've bought into moronic right-wing ideology.

I sure hope you're right on the U.S. side, but I worry that we may be looking at the same phenomena with the sides reversed.

[tlsmith1963]

32. I Think It's Just Because...

...of liberals being involved in scandals up there. Canada is usually more liberal than the US (which is why I want to move there), so hopefully they will come to their senses. They are angry because of the scandal, but pro-Bush conservatives would be a lot worse for Canada. Look at how much they have ruined America. Don't vote for them, Canadians!

Tammy

[applegrove]

34. Yep. Get your boots on boys. We will be in perpetual war even though

our economy will be overheated with Alberta Oil for the next 100 years. That is the 19th Century Neocon think!