The Real Reason for War with Iran (yes, I mean IRAN): OIL

[berni_mccoy]

The administration is beating the WAR DRUMS to go to war with Iran.

Many here have expressed concerns about such a move by the administration. It is a very unwise move at this point to attack Iran.
- They have a decent military (1/2 million strong, plus every able body must server 2 years meaning they have about 15 million TRAINED and ABLE)
- They have ballistic capabilities, probably targeting U.S. ships and bases in the region
- They have allies in Syria (committed in a treaty to defend each other) and probably Russia and China to boot
- We would definitely take heavy casualties (10's of thousands likely)

Don't be fooled about issues of National Security. It really is about oil. And don't think that we are going to get Iran's oil. That isn't why we would attack them. It's to cause the price of oil to skyrocket. Who's going to benefit from that? The oil industry, especially those companies who get their oil from non-middle eastern sources.

A long time ago, I posted a chart about this with regard to the war in Iraq. That chart has become my sig graphic. While almost ALL OTHER Market Indices have stagnated or even fallen, their is ONE GROUP OF INDUSTRIES who have benefited greatly: DEFENSE CONTRACTORS and the OIL INDUSTRIES.

Well, I've updated it and here it is current to Jan 2006:



You can look up other industry averages here:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.asp?Symbol=%24indu%2Coilgasref%2Cindoilgas%2Caeroservic&ShowChtBt=Refresh+Chart&DateRangeForm=1&PT=7&CP=1&C5=6&C6=2000&C7=1&C8=2006&C9=2&ComparisonsForm=1&CE=0&CompSyms=&DisplayForm=1&D5=0&D7=&D6=&D3=0

And I don't think I need to go into details about who in the administration has heavy investments in defense and oil industries.

[bryant69]

1. I don't know if they will get the political capital to go through with it

As for your predictions on the army of Iran and how tough it would be to defeat them; I think the biggest fear is getting into what we have in Iraq; an insurancy. I think the initial campaign will be a lot like the initial Iraq war.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[berni_mccoy]

4. I'm not so sure

Our military has been heavily taxed... our guys have been at war for 4 years now and MANY of them are being forced to serve (by not being relieved when due and by forcing multiple tours). Our guys aren't even being equipped with BODY ARMOR and those who do MUST PURCHASE IT WITH THEIR OWN MONEY.

Not to mention that we've LOST 17,000+ soldiers who will never serve again (15,000+ wounded, 2200+ dead). That's a significant percentage of active duty soldiers.

And what about money? Are we going to just print more or are we going to keep on borrowing money to wage more wars?

If Iran is pushed into war, they have 15 MILLION ABLE BODIES who would activate. We would need a draft to even come close to being able to fight a war on that scale.

[bryant69]

9. True; but those are all problems that would have to be solved

before we got in the field; as far as technology, air power and fire power, we would be ok if we could get men on the field.

edited to add in the initial battle of course; the insurgancy would likely be even worse than in Iraq.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[berni_mccoy]

10. Looks like Iran's airforce may be in better shape thanks to Ney:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x89038

[Maggie_May]

2. Going into Iran

would be one way for the media off track from all other scandals. I have been wondering if Bush will mention Iran in his State of the Union address.

[TechBear_Seattle]

3. Well, DUH!

I mean, why do you think we will invade and conquer? To free the people from a dictator? To spread democracy?

Puh-leez! "Democratic principles" and "American interests" means the principal invested by GOP sponsors, with interest.

[berni_mccoy]

7. It's not a "well,DUH!" to a large percentage of Americans

And I've received many, many requests on my sig graphic.

When people are confronted with a chart like that, they very quickly start asking questions internally. A picture speaks a thousand words is never more true than in this case.

[rucky]

5. Actually, I think it might be Natural Gas just as much

Remember the pipeline UNOCAL/Karzai is working on through Afghanistan?

Maybe their vision is to connect it to the Persian gulf via Iran & Iraq?

[reprobate]

6. I agree, but would add that it's to protect the dollar also.

Just as the media didn't tell you about the fact that Saddam had switched to the euro for his petro trading, they haven't said much about the fact that Iran is starting it's own oil market in April, and it, too, will trade in euros.

So, while the oil itself is one goal, and driving up it's price is part of that, there is also the fact that the neocons know that the effect of a major market in oil trading in euros will be that the whole economy of the United States will come tumbling down like the house of cards it is.

This is an economy that is based on consumer spending and anything that effects that is anathema to them.

[berni_mccoy]

8. I believe just the opposite: this admin would like to see the value drop

If the value of the American dollar drops, it will be very bad for the middle class because the majority of goods in America come from other countries. This would impact the price of just about everything people buy that is not made in America.

Also, foreign debts now become much more expensive to pay off and U.S. banks will need to respond with rising interest rates.

This would also put an immediate dampining on Imports (which are out of control right now), causing the GDP to snap up, appearing as though the economy is booming while the majority of Americans will be suffering economically.

Inflation will pick up (something the new fed wouldn't mind seeing).

The short term affects of such an event will be a large transfer of middle-class to poor. Foreign investors have seen this writing on the while for some time now and many investors (both U.S. and foreign) have transferred thier cash base from U.S. dollar to other currency, or even Gold (thus the steep rise in price of Gold over the last 2 years).