Can Senator Clinton win a single red state?

[DanCa]

I am not trying to flame Senator Clinton. I really respect and admire her. However let's think about this logicaly. Can she win one red state? The reason why I am asking is that I really want us to win in 2008 and I don't think that Senator Clinton can flip the red states over to blue states. With that said I would probably vote for her if she won the nomination but that's just me.

[Crazy Guggenheim]

1. The questions is how many blue states.

:popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn:

[DanCa]

3. Lol. I was trying to avoid a flame war :D

That's why I used her proper title instead of calling her Hillary. :D

[kaygore]

4. I agree

She has flip flopped so much that it isn't just the Republicans and undecideds who would be wary but also the Democratic base. I think that we are tired of the old "lesser of two evils." Let's have "good" as a choice for once!

[KingFlorez]

6. It's not even a question

Given that Republicans will probably nominate someone really extreme, she'll win all the blue states easily.

[Tesha]

37. She wouldn't get my vote. (NT)

[saltpoint]

67. Although she'll be well-funded and have a lot of the party apparatus

behind her, I don't even think Senator Clinton finishes first in the Iowa caucuses.

I think her path to the nomination is steep.

Within grasp, but not unchallenged. She faces formidable primary opponents, many of whom are the favorites of a lot of progressives and other activists. Her front-runner status right now is mostly media-driven, and not a in-your-heart-of-hearts choice.

If she survives the primaries and becoms the nominee, I believe she'll choose Bill Richardson as veep nominee to try to capitalize on the Immigration issue, and that might give her some momentum that I hadn't calculated in for her in prior posts on DU. Richardson' command of both languages gives Democrats an edge there. Especially considering that Dubya can't even speak one language.

But it won't be enough to carry Arizona or Texas, far from it, and New Mexico is always a nail-biting, late-night finish between red and blue. Richardson would help some, but there's no guarantee.

New Hampshire slips back to red if Senator Clinton is the nominee.

Florida becomes a deeper red. Senator Clinton would do ok in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, but not win either, and would get no more and maybe fewer votes in Broward and Palm Beach.

If McCain is the GOP nominee, he carries Ohio. The state's demographic is friendly to a candidate with McCain's charm. Ohio often likes a hero-type. John Glenn. John McCain. Etc.

I'll vote for Senator Clinton is she is the nominee but I don't think her chances are very good. I think Clark, Edwards, Feingold, and maybe Bayh, Kerry and Warner whomp her in Iowa, and then the same bunch finishes her off in New Hampshire. And if Al Gore gets the notion to rumble, Senator Clinton is done for.

__
edit: intended as response to OP. Sorry for the confusion.

[pitohui]

2. arkansas louisiana that's two ? EOM

.

[LA lady]

10. I doubt it

I live in Louisiana and my son works for Mike Ross in Arkansas. If she won either state I would buy you dinner.

[msongs]

13. especially since mosta the afr-americans have been chased out by

the republican adminstration and its policies. kinda like ethnic cleansing with a boost from the hurricane.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/impeachbush.htm

[KingFlorez]

5. I can't see why she wouldn't

I think she has appeal that people don't realize and isn't as polarizing as people think.

[Clark2008]

42. Yeah - she is.

I live in a "red" state. You live in California.

She couldn't win in any red or purple states if she was the only candidate.

If she's our nominee, be prepared to say President McCain or President Allen or President Frist. Seriously.

[lastliberalintexas]

54. Then you ain't been to West Texas recently

Thankfully for you. But Clinton would easily rally more republican nutjobs to vote than the gay marriage issue could dream of doing. She's the worst of all worlds- a fairly conservative voting record superimposed on a media concocted image of the uber liberal. Ugh.

[FARAFIELD]

7. i dont think she can win at all

I think she could possibly loose a couple states if we say red states and blue states are the ones that bush/gore contested

[caledesi]

23. Agreed. This is a loser. nt

[Mz Pip]

8. She only needs Ohio

But as it stands now I don't see her winning any of the close Blue states like Oregon or Washington or Minnesota.


Mz Pip
:dem:

[pnwmom]

29. As a Washingtonian, I can see her winning Washington. Easily.

[QC]

9. Can she win a single state of any kind?

I'm inclined to doubt it.

[rwenos]

12. She'll Win Only the States The Pubs Let Her Win

And she won't have a lick of trouble raising money. If you were a RW millionaire, wouldn't you send Hillary $2,000?

Well I guess.

[darkism]

30. Beat me to it.

Hillary is far too divisive a figure, disliked by right and left alike. The right obviously despises her for being a Clinton, the left for being a centrist DLC hack.

She'll be lucky if she wins Massachusetts and New York if she runs.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

11. nope she wouldnt

1. she is a woman
2. she was married to bill
3. we wont be able to energize our own base if she wins the nomination because most progressives find her to be overly conservative

[sue_66]

14. Conservatives hate Hillary

and she has lost much of her appeal with the left. I also admire her, and feel she would make a "good" president, but can not see her winning. We need a winner this time.

[DanCa]

15. Hi Sue 66

welcome to DU :hi: I agree if we late the neo cons win in 08 we can kiss the Supreme Court good bye.

[sue_66]

17. not only the supreme court

but life as we know it, another republican in office will destroy this country. It scares me:o

[Charlie Brown]

16. No

and I have doubts about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. We need Russ Feingold or Wes Clark.

[DanCa]

18. Or a combination of both? (nt)

[Clark2008]

43. Amen!

[sue_66]

20. I don't think Clark

is the answer. Feingold is great. I am so worried the party will not pull together and select a winner. FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION

[Clark2008]

44. Clark's from a Southern/mid-Western state and military

He would flip more red states than Feingold, whom I adore, but Feingold has baggage Clark doens't have - like a Senate record, two divorces, a (and this is sad) Jewish last name and the "liberal" baggage. Clark is as liberal (maybe more so on some issues) as Feingold, but people automatically ASSUME that he's more conservative because he was military.

I want to nominate a liberal who's assumed as a moderate rather than a moderate who's assumed to be a liberal. More cross-over appeal.

Clark/Feingold is my dream ticket. Clark the economist professor as CinC and Feingold as Senate president.

[CatWoman]

19. yes. yes she can. democrats can will in the south. they just need to

GET FUCKING REAL!!!

Inject some passion.

Stand up for us. stand up for the truth. stand up for themselves.

We are craving it.

http://ec1.images-amazon.com/images/P/0743286510.01._BO2,204,203,200_PIsitb-dp-500-arrow,TopRight,45,-64_AA240_SH20_SCLZZZZZZZ_V55788824_.jpg

[Clark2008]

46. I agree that they can, but not with her.

Baby steps - but, yes, they need to campaign down here FIRST.

[bluestateguy]

21. It would be a reach

Maybe Ohio or Iowa, but she can't take all of the blue states for granted either.

She's just the wrong candidate.

[juajen]

22. I disagree. She is more popular than shown on DU

How amazing that we have so many experts on here.

[never_get_over_it]

64. She is popular with the Repunks

a few weeks ago the freak in chief said she would be a formidable candidate - the Rpunks WANT HER TO BE THE NOMINEE - they know she will get slaughtered - she most likely would lose alot of blue states and there isn't a red one out there that she could flip - between her as a candidate and electronic voting machines - the Dems would be through through through.....

[Justice Is Comin]

24. I'm puzzled by the

strong indicators for her with the Dems so far. I sure don't see it here on this forum and I forsee a lot of problems that will be avalanched on her if she is the nominee. But apparently 39% of the Democrats surveyed so far think she will be the nominee.

I'm willing to let the process work and listen to the debates that will weed out the candidates one by one. I will gladly get behind her if she blows everybody away. I think it's going to be almost a civil war electing our nominee.

But it is really interesting to figure out why NOW the large majority puts her as number 1.

[Yupster]

26. Why she's # 1 ?

Start with the strongest name ID of any Democratic potential candidate. I bet more voters can name her than Kerry or Gore.

Add in an incredible machine of well known organizers that have already signed on with her or will sign on from her husband's administration.

Add an unlimited ability to raise money.

Add her husband working behind the scenes to clear obstacles out of her way and you get

an overwhelming favorite at this early stage.

[Rocket Surgeon]

25. I'm going to get superstitious on y'all,

and say not to nominate a standing Senator or Congressperson. When is the last time such a person won the Presidency? The best bet will be a Governor, after all Dubya, Clinton, Reagan and Carter were propelled to the White House via Governorship. I cannot think of anybody except for Richardson of New Mexico.

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Mark Warner

Very successful and popular one-term governor of Virginia, 2002-2006.

[Golden Raisin]

28. No.

Repubs and neocons think she's Satan's mom and not even enough Dems are for her.

[pnwmom]

32. But Republicans hated her husband, and that didn't stop him.

Even being impeached didn't stop him. And I think even a lot of Republicans now are secretly wishing we were back in the good old days of Mr. Balanced Budget Clinton.

[DanCa]

33. That was before the days of diebold and 9-11

After watching Mark Crispan Miller on C-span this new rethug party has me disgusted and scared. If you thought the 2004 election was bad then wait and see what happens if Senator Clinton becomes our nominee. I like Senator Clinton, and respect, however these new Republicans wont stop at nothing to see her deffeated. Hell this would by our first candidate that would need 24 hour protection. Yes they hate and fear her that much. I myself would vote for her, you w ould vote for her, but would a rethug? I doubt it.

[pnwmom]

52. I think they'll stop at nothing to defeat any Democrat. Look at what

they did to Kerry, who had impeccable credentials.

[DanCa]

56. True now imagine what they'll do to Senator Clinton

Who they truly hate.

[benburch]

31. I will do EVERYTHING in my power to see to is she is not nominated.

You will never see me work so hard at anything than to defeat her should she be foolish enough to run for President in '08.

She does not represent my ideas of what a Democrat should be.

Period.

[xkenx]

34. 2008 is all about flipping red states, so it's Wes Clark

Hillary certainly can't do it. Wes Clark is a progressive wolf in military uniform sheep's clothing. Many Republicans who didn't care for Bush, still couldn't vote for Kerry. Clark was the only Dem. they could consider. Clark has had more EXECUTIVE leadership roles than any Senator by virtue of his military commands where he had responsibility for the lives of hundreds of thousands of servicepeople and their dependents--the whole range of housing, education, training, healthcare, social services, sometimes in a dangerous spot. When Clark was Supreme Allied Commander Europe (Eisenhower's last military position), he had "Head-of-State" status, meaning that he dealt directly with prime ministers/presidents, not underlings. And Clark was virtually the only voice urging help for Rwanda. And Clark and Madeleine Albright were the ones who convinced Clinton to take action against the ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, where Clark carried out the military action w/o the loss of a single American life. In this he stood up to the Pentagon brass who wanted nothing to do with "saving Albanians." And it was Clark who served for more than 30 years AFTER getting shot up and winning hero medals in Vietnam, when he could have gone for the big bucks in private industry. Try Swift Boating this guy--the smackdown will be heard around the world. Clark is all about duty, honor, country. When Clark's American Dream/American Hero story gets out to middle America, watch how many red states flip. And the beauty of Wes Clark is that HE IS A REAL LIVE D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T, with a progressive agenda equal to anyone.

[Perky]

49. Not Clark..Warner for flipping states.

[Tom Rinaldo]

61. Warner has some Southern appeal

At least he did in Virginia. That does not necessarily translate into Mountain States and South West Appeal however, or even automatically play well in the Mid West battle States. It might, it might not. No one knows. Clark's military background plays well nationally in essentially all Red States, and Clark is also from the South, and Clark is strong in the issue Democrats are traditionally losing elections over, National Security. Warner isn't.

[depakid]

66. Warner might well flip a few blue states

Yawn.

Especially if McCain stays healthy and runs.

[chicofaraby]

35. Who cares?

She voted for the war. She won't get my vote.

[LSK]

36. if she does, she should thank Dean for his 50 state program

[AllieB]

38. Hillary is too divisive, though I like her

The neo-cons want her to run badly, because she is so hated that they know she will galvanize the base.

[oasis]

39. Arkansas, West Virginia and Louisiana.nt

[Blue_In_AK]

40. There's no way she'd take Alaska...

[Clark2008]

41. Nope.

eom

[SaveElmer]

45. Of course she could...

Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico...among others would be well within her grasp.

[KingFlorez]

48. Right, those are possibilities

Some people here are so against her they can't see there are some areas she could pickup

[HughBeaumont]

47. NONE. I've been saying this all along, and another point is this . . .

You have to remember that there are several states that BARELY went blue that could be tipped to our disadvantage were she the nominee. I'm talking your Wisconsins, Michigans and Pennsylvanias. She could very well lose PA, and that's all she wrote. Hillary is hated by the Right and Left alike, and for good reason. She has assloads of baggage that could easily be exploited widespread in the GOP-controlled media, she enabled the War Preznit, she voted for Condosleeza for SOS, she supports job offshoring. That last point is the straw for me, sorry. I don't want to make a damned statement, I want to WIN, and for that to happen, we need someone who isn't a flip-flopper, has very little baggage and isn't divisive. End the damned monarchies already.

And to all of those that say she could win Ohio, think again. I live here. I think a total of 12 or 13 Ohio counties out of 99 went blue in 2004, and most along the eastern border barely went blue. Granted, the 12 counties are also the most populated, but you're forgetting Montgomery is where Cincy is. Cincinnati, unfortunately has a conservative metropolitan area, which really anchors us. Us Northeasterners, Eastern border counties and the islands of Franklin and Athens can only do so much, and I can tell you right now that Senator Clinton's agenda will go over in this state like a lead balloon. Christ, this state is so backwards, it elected a doorknob for governor that makes Lancelot Link look like Stephen Hawking in comparison for TWO TERMS!

[flyarm]

50. we have now seen the destruction a father and son have created

to ur nation..do we have to have a husband and wife now??

i want a clean slate..i want to get out all the family crap and get someone who gives a damn about the constitution and this country..and get my country back..enough of the family shit..its destroying my once proud country..clean house!

we need new blood!
fly

[noonwitch]

51. She would have a chance in AK, FL and OH

Ohio is suffering as badly as Michigan from the Bush economy. Unfortunately, their vote-counting system is pretty corrupt, so it would likely take a large majority for a Hillary win in Ohio to be detected by the counters.

FL-my dad lives in Florida. Seniors get pissed off when they get insecure about their SS checks and the economy.

AK-she was their first lady for years.


She's a better candidate than Biden-he cheated in college and the GOP is never going to let him forget it. Although he is funny sometimes, he's never going to be president.

[Blue_In_AK]

53. Sorry, I think you mean AR...

AK is Alaska, and she is basically reviled up here.

[Onlooker]

55. No one thought Reagan or Nixon could win

They were both regarded as extremists, and especially with Reagan many progressives sat out that election assuming Carter, bad as he was, would win a second term. Hillary is hated by righties, but the rest of the nation will judge her more objectively, and her track record is decidedly moderate. The key for her will be if the liberals think she would be better than who the Republicans put up. Anyone who would support a Republican over Hillary or simply not vote is basically standing on principle and letting gays, immigrants, and other minorities pay the price.

[ecstatic]

57. Not after marching for illegal immigrant rights before soldiers rights

I'm so disgusted with the direction this party is headed in.

[NNN0LHI]

62. Immigrants are encouraged and welcomed into the US military

They are promised expedited citizenship if they join.

There likely were many Iraq veterans at the march today if that is any consolation.

Don

[BlooInBloo]

58. People always ask the question bas-ackwards...

... the correct question is: Are redstate people smart enough to vote for her (over a republican candidate)?

It's not a trivial semantico-rhetorical quibble. It places responsibility for the elected squarely upon the shoulders of those to whome it belongs: THE ELECTORATE.

[skipos]

59. No. nt

[NNN0LHI]

60. I was convinced her old man couldn't win. He won twice n/t

[sepia_steel]

63. Nope. Nope. Nope. nt

[depakid]

65. She couldn't win in quite a few Blue states

Her negatives are too high. The far right spent many years and hundreds of millions demonizing her. Fair or not- she won't be able to over come that amount of propaganda.